Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Newt leading Romney in Virginia, California, and Pennsylvania

Gingrich: 41%
Romney: 15
Perry: 8
Bachmann: 8
Santorum: 6
Paul: 6
Huntsman: 3
Newt: 33%
Romney: 25
Paul: 9
Bachmann: 7
Perry: 4
Santorum: 4
Huntsman: 2
Newt: 35
Romney: 18
Santorum (his home state): 18
Paul: 8
Bachmann: 6
Perry: 2

Pew and NBC/WSJ national polls

Pew shows the national race as Newt 35, Romney 21.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Newt 40. Romney 23. Further, if it was a two-man race, Newt would beat Romney 59-36%.

New Hampshire poll: Romney 29, Newt 24.

This is another example of Newt polling much better in the Granite State than any other Republican not named Romney this cycle.

In fact, Newt is now almost within ten points of the average of New Hampshire polls. I'm not the only one who says it, but if Newt wins Iowa and then comes within 10 in New Hampshire (maybe even 15), Romney is going to look incredibly weak going into South Carolina and Florida.

On Monday night, Newt drew a huge crowd -- 1,000 to 1,250 people were in attendance -- which some are saying it's the biggest event in New Hampshire this year.

Can you spot the outlier in the recent Iowa polls?

A lot of attention was paid to the Public Policy Polling poll released Tuesday that showed Iowa tightening considerably, with Newt at 22 and Ron Paul at 21.

However, the media -- so willing to jump on any poll that shows Newt slipping -- ignores that this poll appears to be an outlier at this moment.

Another poll was released Tuesday afternoon that showed Newt at 27 and Paul at 17. And surprise, that poll received a tiny fraction of the coverage the PPP one did.

An analysis by Neil Stevens of gives a good explanation on why PPP -- a very reliable polling firm -- is likely way off on this poll. They are including independents and Democrats in their poll.

Every time, and I mean every time, I bring up the fact that the Iowa Caucuses are closed [meaning only Republicans can vote in the GOP Caucuses], the reply is that “You can register up to the day of the caucuses to participate.” That’s true. But if Paul is not able to motivate his supporters to register, and if his people aren’t actually committed to caucus for Paul, then his support is soft, and isn’t going to show up.
So while these independents and Democrats are telling a pollster they would support Paul, they have to be considered pretty unlikely to turn out on January 3rd and vote for Paul.

What does the poll look like if only Republicans are included?

Newt 25. Paul 17.

Remember what the other Iowa poll from Tuesday looked like: Newt 27. Paul 17. Looks kinda similar, doesn't it?

And the average of Iowa polls from the past week: Newt 29, Romney 17, Paul 16.

So even though it's inconvenient for the media -- which wants to report about Newt falling more than anything -- the Public Policy Polling survey looks way out of whack with other Iowa polls.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

"We understand a load of crap when we see it."

That's what Linda Upmeyer, the Iowa chair of Newt 2012, said of Mitt Romney (or, more accurately, his surrogates') attacks on Newt.

Former Rep. Greg Ganske, who was elected to Congress in 1994 and served under Gingrich when he was speaker of the House, suggested Romney only wanted to use the caucuses to tear down Gingrich ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

"Maybe he doesn't care. Maybe he doesn't care about winning Iowa. He just wants to tear down the speaker here and then focus on New Hampshire," Ganske said.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida polls

CNN released a batch of four polls today at 4 PM Eastern:

Iowa: Newt 33, Romney 20.

New Hampshire: Romney 35, Gingrich 26.

South Carolina: Newt 43, Romney 20.

Florida: Newt 48, Romney 25.


In Iowa, Newt gets 35% support from women and 32% from men.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

North Carolina: Newt 51, Romney 14, Bachmann 8

Link to poll.

Newt's favorability: 73-13%.

15% list Newt as their second choice, second only to Romney at 18, meaning Newt still could move up.

Newt beats Romney by 47 points among very conservative voters and by 17 among moderates.

Newt's worst age group? 18-29. He's "only" at 63-32 with them.

Colorado poll: Newt 37, Romney 18, Bachmann 9

Link to poll.

Newt's favorability: 64-23. Among men: 67-23; with women, 60-24.

He's still the second choice of 18% of voters, just beating out Romney, which suggests Newt still has some room to grow in the polls.

Newt leads Romney 42-9 among tea party voters and 34-23 with non-tea partiers.

Favorability among age groups:
18-29: 53-18%
30-45: 54-28
46-65: 65-27
65 and older: 76-13
He gets the most support from each age group.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

CBS/NYT Iowa poll: Newt 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11

More results to come at 6:30 Eastern, says

Gallup National Poll: Newt 37, Romney 22, everyone else in single digits

Newt's 37% is the highest of any candidate in a Gallup Poll this year.

Conservatives: Newt 41, Romney 20, Paul 8.

Moderate/Liberal: Newt 28, Romney 26, Perry 9.

Tea Party: Newt 47, Romney 17, Bachmann 8.

Non-Tea Party: Romney 28, Newt 27, Paul 10.

This is what the polls have been showing lately: Newt cleans up among the Tea Party and conservative voters (a certain overlap between the two, of course) and more than holding his own among moderates.

Newt is uniting the party like no other candidate this election cycle -- others have won the conservative vote, Romney has held the moderate vote well -- but no one has been able to win both conservatives and moderates.

East: Newt 31, Romney 30.

Midwest: Newt 36, Romney 22.

South: Newt 42, Romney 15.

West: Newt 34, Romney 27.


18-34 age group: Newt 26, Romney 21, Paul 18.

35-54: Newt 35, Romney 22.

55+: Newt 46, Romney 23.

Good news for political nerds like myself: Gallup will start doing a daily national poll of the Republican Primary until a nominee is decided.

Gallup: Newt seen as "most acceptable" nominee to fellow Republicans

62% say Newt is acceptable. Mitt Romney, at 54%, is next.

Following a recent trend, Newt beats Romney soundly among tea party and conservative voters -- 82% of tea partiers view Newt as acceptable while only 58% say the same of Romney -- and is essentially tied with the former Massachusetts Governor among moderates.

As long as Newt can remain competitive among moderates, Newt will have no problem winning most contests.

This poll confirms another trend: Newt wins big among older voters. Among 18-54 year olds, Newt is seen as acceptable by 55% to Romney's 50%. Among 55+ voters, the numbers are 73-62.

ABC/Washington Post Iowa poll: Newt 33, Romney 18, Paul 18

Link to poll.

70% list Newt's "political experience" -- you know, those little things like welfare reform, 11 million new jobs, and four balanced budgets -- as a reason to support him.

With 31% to Romney's 20%, Newt is best seen in dealing with the economy.

Newt is also seen as dealing best with immigration. 38% list it as a "major reason to support"; 15% say it's a "major reason to oppose."

By a margin of 42-18, Newt beats Romney when likely voters are asked who has the best experience.

PPP Iowa survey: Newt 27, Paul 18, Romney 16

This confirms the two weekend polls in Iowa more or less.

Newt's favorability: 62-31%.

When asked who has the best chance to defeat Obama, 33% answered Newt and 22% answered Romney.

Public Policy Polling asked this question, which is basically a question on Newt's immigration position:
Do you think people who have immigrated to the United States illegally but have lived here 25 years, have paid taxes, and have obeyed the law should be deported or not?
Only 29% answered they should be deported. 44% said they should not. So it doesn't appear Newt's position is going to hurt him much.

Newt's not winning only because of his debate performance. He wins among those who have paid "a lot of attention," "some attention," and "not much attention at all" to the debates.

Newt is tied for first among those who are between 18 and 29 years old with Paul and Romney. Newt is second, 3 points behind Paul, among the 30-45 year old group. Newt leads with 46-65 year olds as well as 66 and up. Newt's best age group is the 66-and-up, winning 37% to Romney's 18%.

Newt is four points behind Romney and Paul among moderates, but blows them away among conservative and very conservative voters. Earlier "non-Romneys" were not able to hang that close to Romney among moderates.

There's a great deal of overlap, but the split between the tea party and non-tea party vote tells a similar story. Newt gets 35% of those inside the movement, Bachmann 23, Paul 14, Romney 4(!).

But whereas Cain, Perry, and Bachmann may have beat Romney by similar margins among tea party voters, Romney only beats Newt by one point among those who are not in the tea party. That margin was much wider with Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Marist Iowa poll: Newt 26, Romney 18, Paul 17

Newt leads among tea party voters, 32 to 16% for Paul and 13 for Cain.

Newt has the firmest support, even beating Ron Paul (a huge surprise to me).

Gingrich ties Paul on the question who most shares your values.

For those who say electability the most important issue for them, Newt wins 38 to Romney's 25.

By a margin of 36-26, Newt beat Romney on question of who is most experienced to govern.

Newt leads among both men and women.

Gingrich leads in all four regions of Iowa.

He wins both among those making under $75,000 and those making more.

He wins by 17% among Evangelicals.

Here's the link.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Former New Hampshire U.S. Senator Bob Smith endorses Newt

Smith said in his endorsement, “It is not enough to simply defeat President Obama. We must replace him with an inspirational, experienced, conservative leader, with the guts to challenge and change the establishment. Newt Gingrich is that leader.”
Here's the full story.

Newt 2012 has raised $5.5 million this quarter

"R.C. Hammond, a Gingrich spokesman, said the campaign has grown to 10 staff members in South Carolina, eight in New Hampshire, six in Iowa and two in Florida. By comparison, Mr. Romney has five staff members in Iowa, 10 in New Hampshire, and three in South Carolina," writes the Wall Street Journal.

And: “I watched him during the debates, and I think he’s the real deal,” said Richard Bailey, an aerospace analyst who traveled from San Diego to help.

I met Richard this weekend. He's very bright and a strong Newt supporter. He, like me, plans to make a couple of more trips before caucuses on January 3rd.

Des Moines-Register poll: Newt 25, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 8, Cain 8

The poll was (obviously) done before Herman Cain announced he was suspending his campaign, but he was clearly on the downside already.

Where do those voters go? Newt. Every poll says that. The only question is how many. My guess is the number is enough to effectively put Newt at 30%.

18% of all voters said Newt was their second choice, suggesting that as other campaigns fall off he can pick up even more ground.

We still need to keep pushing, but currently Newt is the clear frontrunner nationally, in Iowa, in South Carolina, and in Florida. He's running a close second in New Hampshire.

The trick now is to make sure our voters get to the polls and caucus sites.

Many have noted that this was about the time that Mike Huckabee shot ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa four years ago.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

(Audio) Newt's interview with Dana Loesch

Link to interview.

Newt: "the one candidate who has a real record of implementing conservative government"

So says Richard Viguerie, the conservative and the person who helped develop direct mail outreach.

He wrote recently:
"Gingrich, on the other hand, is well known to many conservative leaders who recognize that, despite his self-acknowledged errors and flaws, he is the one candidate who has a real record of implementing conservative government.

Balancing the budget, welfare reform and a host of other conservative initiatives that Gingrich championed as Speaker are not mere campaign rhetoric -- they actually happened."

Newt's attention to detail on South Carolina issues

Robert Costa wrote in National Review:
Watching the crowds, one saw that Gingrich’s substance on regional issues was crucial to his success. During stops in Charleston and Bluffton, for example, Gingrich’s command on seaport policy, an arcane topic within the Beltway, was largely ignored by campaign reporters. But South Carolina Republicans noticed.
The whole article is well worth reading.

And Tony Lee of Human Events tweeted:
You can tell Newt has LISTENED a lot to many conservative communities. He is speaking to visceral concerns many conservatives have.

The crowds Newt is attracting in Iowa

My three trips to Iowa -- which have started on July 15, September 29, and December 1 -- really demonstrate the upward arc of Newt's campaign.

In July, Newt's campaign was close to its nadir. I had every confidence that Newt would rebound, but there's no doubting that the campaign was hurting at that time. One of the reasons, however, I was still confident that Newt's support would increase was that everywhere we went -- whether an Iowa Cubs baseball game, a tea party event in Lamoni, or the Dallas County Fair -- people were very excited about Newt and praised his ideas.

That showed me that Newt's poll position -- he was in 5th place -- at that time was not because his message was not popular. It was in large part because the media was calling the campaign dead every day, and people were not eager to jump on board with a campaign that might end any day. (The most irresponsible thing that a number of reporters did was suggest that Newt might drop out at any time, despite no evidence to that.)

So, I thought, if Newt could get a small bump in the polls, that would prove the campaign's viability to others who were fond of Newt's solutions. I think it's fair to suggest Newt's Ames Debate performance -- when he called out Chris Wallace's "Mickey Mouse questions" -- was what got Newt 2012 started in an upward trajectory.

I was back in Iowa about a month-and-a-half later for Newt's unveiling of the 21st Century Contract with America. Newt was now essentially tied for third in the polls. You could sense the growing momentum.

Jen Green wrote on that it was about this time that Newt 2012 really started picking up steam. "After reading [the Contract's section on reforming the judiciary] I knew it was going to be a game-changer," Green wrote.

And this trip this weekend is really showing how much different Newt's lead in the polls is than those of Perry, Bachmann, Cain, etc.

Newt's first event Thursday was set up for 370 people. More than 500 showed up. Jason Clayworth of the Des Moines-Register noted that the crowd was bigger than the one Mitt Romney was able to draw at the same venue.

Newt's next appearance also had about 500 people.

The Polk County GOP Victory Dinner later that night had 400 people.

Newt -- whether it's South Carolina, Florida, or Iowa -- has been packing in the crowds recently. Bigger crowds than any other candidate this year.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Iowa -- and another Florida poll

I hope to catch up with the other news from Thursday in the next day. I wasn't able to do other posts because I drove up to Iowa in the morning.

(I do want to mention the new Florida poll. It showed Newt having 50% support. The last three Florida polls -- in order -- 41%, 47, 50.)

A ton of buzz surrounded Newt. It was great meeting the Iowa team. And I look forward to working with them the next couple of days.

Very exciting times. June 9 seems so long ago now.

Rasmussen poll: Newt 38, Romney 17

Jeffrey H. Anderson writes in The Weekly Standard that the poll "suggests that Gingrich is uniting the Tea Party and establishment wings of the Republican Party. The poll shows that among likely Republican primary voters who do not consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party, Gingrich is winning by 11 percentage points -- 32 to 21 percent (over Romney). Among those who do consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party, he’s winning by 37 points -- 47 to 10 percent (over Romney and Herman Cain). Among those who aren’t sure, he’s winning by 26 points -- 42 to 16 percent (over Romney)."

The Public Policy Polling surveys in Florida and Montana Wednesday showed the same thing -- that Newt is winning both the moderate and tea party vote. Nobody -- not Romney, not Perry, etc. -- has done that this year.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Rasmussen: Newt 45, Obama 43

From the story:
The Newt Gingrich surge has moved him to the top of the polls in Iowa, big gains in New Hampshire and now a two-point edge over President Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up.

Louisiana poll: Newt 31, Romney 23, Cain 12, Perry 11

“If Rick Perry can’t do better than fourth place in a neighboring state that has a popular Republican governor supporting him, then where can he do well? So this isn’t a good sign for Rick Perry at all,” Faucheux said.
Link to story.

Montana poll: Newt 37, Paul 12, Romney 11

Newt's favorability: 65/23. Among men: 65-25. Women: 64-22.

38% of women support him. 35% of men.

He gets 42% of the tea party vote. Bachmann is next at 18.

Gingrich again wins the moderate vote, 31-17%.

46% agree with Newt's immigration proposal. 17% oppose.

Newt, as he did in Florida, wins each age group.

PPP Florida poll: Newt 47%, Romney 17, Cain 15

You read that right -- 47%.

Public Policy Polling, which did the survey, gives "one of the key emerging trends in the Republican race -- Gingrich isn't just rising, Romney's also falling."

More from PPP: "The biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart. But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that- some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."

Newt leads among both tea partiers -- getting 53% of them, compared to 24% for Cain and just 7% for Romney.

But Newt also beats Romney among moderates -- 33-22%.

Newt's favorability is 72/21.

Gingrich is especially strong among older voters. "Republican primary electorates can skew pretty old so Gingrich's support on that front bodes very well moving forward," writes PPP. But that's not to say Newt only gets the support of older voters -- he wins every age group.

PPP also points out that Newt could still improve. That's because Cain could very easily drop further -- and since 45% of Cain's supporters say Newt is their second choice.

On the recent dust up on immigration: 57% support Newt's policy. 20% oppose.

Newt's favorability among men: 76-23. Women: 67-19. 48% of men support. 45% of women. Just a huge gap!

Florida poll: Newt 41%, Romney 17, Cain 13

“I have not seen a lead this large, this late in a Republican presidential primary season since I have been polling,” said [Matt] Towery, who notes that his firm has never missed identifying the winner in Florida’s statewide contests.

(Video) Newt congratulates Young Republicans on 30 years

Link to video.

"I love Newt. How do I help?"

"More and more people are coming into the office," Scott Conroy quotes Gingrich’s New Hampshire campaign support manager, Erin Lamontagne, as saying. "People from all over are here saying, 'I love Newt. How do I help?' "

More from Conroy: “It’s frightening but exciting, I’ll tell you,” volunteer coordinator Pam Smith said of the uptick in interest. “Honest to God, they’re just flowing in hand over fist.”

South Carolina

The town hall Monday night was, according to a Charleston paper, "the biggest local event so far in the 2012 election cycle."

Tuesday saw another office open, this one in Bluffton. About 200 people attended the opening. 1000 were at a an outside town hall in Old Town Bluffton. Another 500 attended an evening event at Newberry Opera House.

James Epley, who is the campaign's volunteer chairman in Beauford County, told the Washington Post: “I’ve been with him here all over the state. Everywhere we go, even with people leaning to another candidate, he wins them over.”

"Gingrich, according to voters Patch talked to in recent days, is winning support by pushing many conservative causes, questioning assumptions and sending a positive message that includes hope for the country," writes Lindsay Street.

"Newt Gingrich’s harsh rhetoric against President Obama, mischievous nature, and fervent embrace of Americanism and American exceptionalism fit South Carolina’s political climate to a tee," wrote Tony Lee of Human Events.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Newt's Gallup Positive Intensity Score is 20. Romney is at 9.

It's the lowest Romney has been at all year.

Newt moving up in two NH polls; within 4 points in one

The InsiderAdvantage poll shows Mitt Romney at 31 and Newt at 27.

I will post any crosstabs of the poll when they are released.

A Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire from today has the race at Romney 34% and Newt at 24%.

Newt now has the highest New Hampshire average of any candidate not named Romney this year.

South Carolina poll: Newt 38, Romney 15, Cain 13

Among men, Newt is at 39%; he gets 36% support from women.

It's another poll from InsiderAdvantage.

Iowa poll: Newt 28, Paul 13, Romney 11

Among men, Newt gets 23%; among women, 33%. That darn gender gap!

The poll is from InsiderAdvantage.

Terrific polling news!

None of these polls have been fully released, so more details to come:

InsiderAdvantage also reporting brand new poll in Iowa tonight. Shows Gingrich on top with 28, Ron Paul is closest to him with 13. (link)
New Hampshire:
New InsiderAdvantage poll to be released tomorrow shows Romney and Gingrich in a statistical dead heat in New Hampshire. (link)
South Carolina:
New InsiderAdvantage poll from SC tonight! Gingrich 38, Romney 15, Cain 13, Paul 7, Perry 4, Bachman 3, Santorum 2, Someone else 5, undec 13 (link)
Newt with big lead on 1st night of our FL poll...he and Romney may be only ones over 10% and he's uniting anti-Mitt vote (link)

Monday, November 28, 2011

Former South Carolina Lt. Gov. endorses Newt

From Peter Hamby of CNN:
Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich picked up the endorsement of former South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer on Monday, giving him his most prominent surrogate to date in a state that Gingrich's campaign has billed as its "southern firewall."

"Speaker Newt Gingrich offers the best and most comprehensive plan to get America moving forward and that is why today I am announcing my full support for Speaker Gingrich ... a true conservative, a true patriot, and true leader," Bauer said in a statement.

Eight New Hampshire House Members endorse Newt 2012

John DiStaso:
Following his Sunday endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader, GOP presidential candidate and former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich on Monday picked up the backing of eight New Hampshire House members.

Backing Gingrich were Reps. Laurie Pettengill of Glen, who backed Mitt Romney in 2008, as well as Glen Hill of Northfield, Don McClarren of Nashua, Joe Pitre of Farmington, Kathy Lauer-Rago of Franklin, Joe Osgood of Claremont, Brandon Giuda of Chichester and Ken Sheffert of Hampton.

Pettengill said that although she backed Romney in 2008, “I have chosen to be with Newt this time because I feel he is the most conservative candidate today. He not only has the political know-how, but he will immediately put in to place actions that will renew America.”

Poll Position survey: Newt 32%, Romney 23, Cain 13

Here are the crosstabs for the poll.

Andy Harris (R-MD) endorses Newt

From Politico:
Maryland Congressman Andy Harris will endorse Newt Gingrich today. The freshman Republican, who was not in the House during Gingrich’s tenure as Speaker, will be the first of several federal and state legislators to announce their support for the surging presidential candidate, according to a source familiar with the rollout plan.
Harris is very conservative, and he is another sign that the conservative vote is coalescing behind Newt.

(Video) Bill Kristol defends Newt

Link to the short video clip.

(Video) Newt on debating President Obama

Link to video.

(Video) Editor of New Hampshire Union Leader on why the paper endorsed Newt

Link to video.

(Video) Newt in Florida over the weekend

Part 1 of Newt in Jacksonville.

Part 2 of Newt in Jacksonville.

Newt and Callista in Naples.

Newt 2012's ground game

"[Gingrich] has also started to put together a campaign organization in New Hampshire. He brought on respected tea party leader Andrew Hemingway and his team has been contacting almost 1,000 voters each day," writes the AP.

The New York Times: [Gingrich's] hiring of staff members in South Carolina [nine] and New Hampshire [six] is helping to lead one of the largest grass-roots efforts of any candidate." Newt 2012's South Carolina operation is the largest of any candidate running, notes CNN.

The New Hampshire-Union Leader Endorsement

It is the only statewide paper in New Hampshire, so its endorsement is highly sought after. Every candidate attempts to woo the editorial board in meeting with it. Here is the video of Newt's meeting for those who have not seen it.

"A lot of candidates say they're going to improve Washington. Newt Gingrich has actually done that, and in this race he offers the best shot of doing it again," wrote the paper's publisher, Joseph W McQuaid.

Nate Silver of the New York Times ran the numbers to see how meaningful the endorsement is. He found that "On average, the candidates endorsed by The Union Leader finished with 29 percent of the vote in New Hampshire -- an 11-percentage-point improvement from the 18 percent they averaged in the polls when the endorsement was made."

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Newt 2012's Iowa Chairwoman responds to misinformation from other campaigns

Linda Upmeyer, the Iowa State House Majority Leader and the Chairwoman of Newt's efforts in Iowa, "accused Bachmann of misrepresenting the candidate’s position for political gain," writes the Des Moines-Register.

“This is bumper-sticker politics where we are dealing either with confused or just, I guess, untruthful people,” Upmeyer said. Gingrich supports neither citizenship for illegal immigrants nor amnesty, she said."

"Gingrich attracts another record crowd, defends immigration policy."

That was the headline from NBC News. "For more than four hours, a long line wrapped around the entire top floor of Books-A-Million here just to have the chance to visit briefly with Newt Gingrich and his wife, Callista."

“Frankly, like the bookstore, we are a little overwhelmed by the turnout here this morning,” the former House speaker told the more than 650 people who came out Saturday to copies of the Gingrich’s books autographed. “So thank you all for being here.”

"[Gingrich] also added about those who he spoke with Saturday: 'it’s very interesting, the number of people who say I appreciate and agree with your position on immigration was substantial and no one said they were offended.' "

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Bachmann and Santorum both voiced support for the same policy they are using against Newt

Michelle Bachmann and Rick Santorum have been two of the most vocal opponents of Newt's immigration policy.

But back on the September 7 debate, they both took very similar positions to Newt. Bachmann said that before deporting any illegal immigrants, "it depends upon where they live, how long they have been here, if they have a criminal record. All of those things have to be taken into place."

Link to video.

Santorum came out and said: "Well, my solution is very similar to Newt Gingrich's."

Michael Reagan: My dad would support Newt's immigration policy


A tea party group in California felt Newt won Tuesday's debate

If the presidential election was held today and Redlands could swing the vote, Newt Gingrich might well want to start packing for the White House.

It was the former Speaker of the House who came out on top in the eyes of those who attended the Redlands Tea Party Patriots debate viewing and live radio broadcast Tuesday.
Here's the full story.

Around 1000 people hear Newt speak in Naples, Florida

On Friday, Newt held a town hall in Naples, Florida that nearly 1000 -- if not 1000 people -- attended.

From an article about the event:
Recent polls have shown the former house speaker at or near the top of the Republican presidential field, along with Mitt Romney. During a televised debate Tuesday, some Republicans and pundits thought Gingrich may have risked that status when he said he favored pathways to legal status for illegal immigrants who have lived peaceful, law-abiding, taxpaying lives in the United States for many years.

Other Republican candidates were quick to condemn his remarks. But his ideas didn't seem to alienate the folks in Naples — the crowd was enthusiastic with his appearance and wildly applauded many of his remarks, including his outline on how to handle illegal immigration in the U.S.

"It's an extremely difficult question," said Patrick Moody, a 57-year-old Baptist minister from West Palm Beach who said he will likely vote for him in the important Florida primary. "He's got a measured, realistic view of the situation. His views make sense."
From another:
Is Newt Gingrich the latest flavor of the month among the candidates pursuing the Republican nomination for president? Or is he a real candidate who can beat early favorite Mitt Romney?

If the reaction from his appearance Friday in Naples is even the slightest indication, then the former Speaker of the House will indeed challenge Romney for a spot on the ticket to face President Barack Obama next November.
As the first story makes clear, and as Newt has made clear, nothing happens until the border is secure.

Iowa poll: Newt 27, Romney 20, Paul 16

The poll, done by American Research Group, shows Newt winning 42% of the tea party vote.

When the voter based is narrowed down to just "definite" voters, Newt gets 32% of the vote, Ron Paul 17, and Mitt Romney 15%.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Peter Ferrara on Newt's judicial reform plan

An excerpt from Peter Ferrara:
And if those judges refuse to apply the law objectively as written, and instead engage in judicial activism making up their own law based on their own liberal/left values, then they are applauded by the liberal/left media and academia. The rest of us can go pound sand.

At least that is the view of the New York Times, the Washington Post, the bar association, and the law schools. They are the ultimate authority and rulers in America under this doctrine of judicial supremacy. Any other view is dangerous to our most fundamental liberties, they tell us (at least while the judges reflect their liberal/left views).

But not according to Newt Gingrich, the Founding Fathers, and American history. To these authorities, it is judicial supremacy that is dangerous to our most fundamental liberties.
And another:
Gingrich recalls the actual checks and balances on the judiciary established by our Founding Fathers, who recognized the dangers of judicial supremacy. Jefferson wrote in challenging such judicial supremacy in 1820, "You seem to consider the judges the ultimate arbiters of all constitutional questions; a very dangerous doctrine indeed, and one which would place us under the despotism of an oligarchy." Jefferson further wrote later that year, "The judiciary of the United States is the subtle corps of sappers and miners constantly working underground to undermine our Constitution from a co-ordinate of a general and special government to a general supreme one alone. This will lay all things at their feet."
Please read the full thing here.

And here is Newt's position paper on judicial reform.

(Video) Newt's meeting with the editorial board of the New Hampshire Union Leader

Link to video. "Videos: Newt’s latest greatest hits"

These two clips are from Saturday's Thanksgiving Family Forum in Iowa:

"Newt Schools Ron Paul on Founding Fathers: 'I Don't Think 'Liberty' Means Libertine' ":

"Newt's Tearful Testimony On Faith, Failures, Life, & Being President":

The Missouri Primary/Caucus

Much of the liberal media had a good chuckle for a while on Tuesday as the news came out that Newt 2012 had missed the filing deadline for the Missouri Primary in February.

Then the truth came out:

The primary will not award any delegates, so the campaign was not going to waste money on a primary that even the Huffington Post says is "meaningless."

Newt instead will focus on the Missouri Caucus, which takes place in March and which will be award binding delegates to the Republican convention.

Newt's press secretary, R.C. Hammond, had a good line:
Asked why Gingrich was the only major Republican candidate to opt out of the Missouri's non-binding primary [Hammond] said: "Their lawyers bill them by the hour."

Romney is for illegal immigrants to become citizens

Newt is calling for illegal immigrants -- should they be good citizens and have roots in the community -- to be legalized. But not become citizens.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is for making illegal immigrants citizens.

Of course, he is trying to cover that up now -- as he is with his previous pro-abortion and anti-gun views (along with a host of other liberal views).

For more on Newt's immigration proposal:

"Gingrich’s views on immigration are not all that far out of step with those of Republican voters."

Nate Silver of the New York Times has a good piece out about Newt's immigration policy.

In it, he writes:
[M]y view is that the markets probably overreacted in this case and that Mr. Gingrich’s answer will not be all that harmful to him.

One reason is simply that Mr. Gingrich’s views on immigration are not all that far out of step with those of Republican voters. Although I can’t find a survey that catalogs Republican responses to Mr. Gingrich’s proposal exactly, a New York Times/CBS News poll from May 2010 on a broad range of immigration-related issues provides some evidence about an analogous proposal.


Among Republican respondents to the survey, 42 percent said the immigrants should be required to leave. But 31 percent said they should be able to stay and apply for citizenship. An additional 23 percent picked the middle option: the immigrants should be allowed to stay, but as guest workers rather than citizens.
I suspect that commentators take too literal-minded an approach when predicting how a candidate’s position on the issues will play with primary voters. Yes, there are a few issues like abortion that are threshold tests in a Republican primary, but others like immigration are more complex. Voters may tolerate a fairly wide range of responses provided that the candidate’s head and heart seem to be in the right place. Alternatively, issues that do not seem all that salient may become much more so if the candidate cannot explain them adequately or if his position seems insincere.

One thing that Mr. Gingrich has going for him is that conservatives feel that both his head and his heart are indeed in the right place. The heart part is easy: after the time he spent as speaker of the House feuding with President Clinton on the welfare state and most everything else, there are few doubts about his conservative team spirit. By contrast, many influential Republican commentators say point-blank that Mitt Romney is not a real conservative at heart and is instead a Northeastern (i.e. moderate) Republican. One significant piece of evidence for this, of course, is that Mr. Romney’s only elected office was the governor of Massachusetts, and that he took generally moderate positions there.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

South Carolina poll: Newt leads Cain, 31-17%

Link to a story about the poll.

The poll, combined with the fact that Newt has the biggest campaign operation in the Palmetto State, would seem to back up the idea that South Carolina is Newt's firewall.

Quinnipiac University national poll: Newt 26, Romney 22, Cain 14

Newt leads among military households, 30-22 over Romney.

Newt leads among households making less than 30K (by five points), 30-50K (by five points again), 50-100 (by six points), and is tied with Romney in those making 100K or more.

Newt would win a one-on-one matchup with Mitt Romney, 49-39.

Newt leads President Obama among military households, 46-42.

Overall, Newt has improved six points since early November in a matchup with Obama. Obama is down three points in the hypothetical matchup, with Newt picking up three points.

Women Republican/Republican leaners say Newt would handle the economy the best.

Overall, 46% Republican/Republican leaners say Newt would do the best on foreign policy. Romney, at 16%, comes in second.

Newt also comes out on top on the illegal immigration issue, with 21% of Republicans and those leaning toward the GOP giving his name.

48% say Newt has "the knowledge and experience necessary to be a good president." Romney, at 22%, is second.

On who is a atrong leader: Newt 34%, Romney 24, Cain 14.

Arizona poll: Newt 28, Romney 23, Cain 17

Another Public Policy Polling survey.

Newt's favorability: 66-25%. Among men, it's 70-24; among women, 61-25%.

Newt gets the support of 30% of women and 27% of men. That darn gender gap again!

Once again, Newt is the top second choice -- meaning he still has plenty of room to grow in the polls.

Newt gets 24% support from tea party voters. Cain gets 19% and Romney 15%.

Newt also leads among non-tea party voters, getting the support of 19%. Romney is next with 16%, and Cain gets 11%.

Favorability among age groups:
18-45: 60-29
46-65: 70-23
66 and older: 68-23

Newt leads 32-15 over Romney in Pennsylvania

So says Public Policy Polling.

Newt's favorability is 63/24%, which might explain why he is still the top second choice. Among men, his favorability is 67-24; among women, 58-24%.

He gets 32% support from both men and women.

Among tea party voters, Newt gets 40% of the vote. Cain gets 20%, Romney 8%. But Newt also gets 28% of the non-tea party voters. Cain is at 14 and Romney gets 13%.

Newt's favorability among different age groups:
18-45: 56-25
46-65: 64-26
Older than 65: 73-20

Newt leads the GOP field in "Positivie Intensity Score"

The score from Gallup is "computed as the percentage of Republicans/Republican leaners with a strongly favorable opinion of a candidate minus the percentage with a strongly unfavorable opinion."
Newt: 20
Cain: 14
Romney: 11
Santorum: 6
Perry: 2
Paul: 2
Bachmann: 1
Huntsman: -2

Monday, November 21, 2011

Newt 2012 video: Newt Was Right On The 'Super Committee'

Link to video.

Newt calls for Personal Retirement Accounts in New Hampshire writes of the plan, which would be voluntary:
Currently, employees and employers pay into the Social Security system through the payroll tax. Under Gingrich’s proposal, the employer-funded portion would go toward keeping the current Social Security system sustainable. But part of the employee-funded portion could be invested in a personal savings account. People would be given the option of putting money into a range of investments administered by private companies, similar to a 401-k plan. The person would own his account, which would be passed on to his estate when the person dies.

Gingrich said in addition to giving people more ownership over their retirement benefits, it would help the economy by spurring investment through the private savings accounts. “The amount of savings builds up rapidly and creates a level of capital which accelerates economic growth,” Gingrich said.

Gingrich adviser Peter Ferrara, a conservative lawyer who served in the administrations of President Reagan and President George H.W. Bush, said Gingrich has not yet determined what portion of a person’s payroll tax they could contribute, or for what ages the program would be phased in. But Gingrich said current beneficiaries would not be impacted.

To pay for the transition period, Gingrich would take 185 federal programs that help the poor and give the money – including Medicaid money - as block grants to the states. Gingrich said that would eliminate federal bureaucracy and let states come up with training programs to get people off social programs. “We want to challenge the states not to figure out how you can take this federal block grant to subsidize the poor being poor, we want them to take this amount and use it to figure out how you can help the poor learn to be non-poor,” Gingrich said.

In a report posted on Gingrich’s website, Ferrara estimated that switching to block grants could save the federal government $3.25 trillion over 10 years and the states $1.4 trillion.
The plan can be found on here.

CNN Poll: Newt 24%, Romney 20.

From the story:
"The number of Republicans who would be pleased or enthusiastic if he won the party's nomination has grown from 51% in May to 70% now - not the kind of numbers you would expect if voters were 'settling' for Gingrich."
In fact, a plurarity say they are most enthusiastic about Newt being the nominee.

29% say Newt is the strongest leader. 26% say the same of Romney.

He comes in first when asked which "is most likely to agree with you on the issues that matter most to you?"

Newt also wins the question of who is most qualified to be commander-in-chief, with 36% saying so. Romney, at 20%, is second.

He comes on top when asked which candidate is able to understand complex issues. 43% say so. Romney, at 18%, again comes in second.

30% say Newt would do the best at representing the United States to the world. Romney: 26%.

Newt gets 24% support from both men and women.

Newt gets 31% support of tea party voters. Cain gets 21%, with Romney at 19%. Newt just trails Romney among those who are "tea party neutral," 19-17%.

"Gingrich Passes the Social Conservative Test"

Byron York wrote the article. An excerpt:
Saturday evening's Family Leader forum in Des Moines was widely viewed as a key test for Republican presidential candidates trying to win the support of still-undecided Iowa social conservatives. And after an extraordinary and sometimes soul-baring discussion between six candidates gathered at First Federated Church, there are signs Newt Gingrich has come out ahead in the race to become the candidate behind whom social conservatives unite behind in their drive to stop Mitt Romney.

Discussions with some social conservative leaders after the forum brought praise for all of the participants, particularly Gingrich and Rick Santorum. But it turns out that pollster/strategist Frank Luntz, who conducted the forum, also ran a focus group after the session, and it appears Gingrich scored very well with the group. "I think the focus group that Luntz did afterward would bear out that Newt Gingrich came a long way Saturday night," says Family Leader president Bob vander Plaats. "I think it would bear out that Gingrich won the forum."

"When you watch it, you'll say, 'Wow,'" vander Plaats continued. "It also looked very good for Santorum, but primarily for Gingrich." The focus group was taped for later showing on Fox News.
York concludes:
What is happening now is that social conservatives are working their way through his liabilities, particularly his three marriages, and trying to decide if they can support the Gingrich of today -- not the Gingrich of 15 or 20 years ago -- without compromising social conservative principles. In the Family Leader forum Saturday, it appears that all involved made a big step toward doing that.

A Letter to the Editor about Newt Gingrich

The Charleston Tea Party published this letter on their website.

An excerpt:
They will do whatever it takes to destroy Newt Gingrich because Barack Obama can't stand up to Mr. Gingrich's "Vision for America" or his brain. But for me personally, Mr. Gingrich recognizes Israel's importance as America's greatest ally in a region where most people there just don't like us. As an added benefit, we won't have to worry about the NLRB or any more apologies coming from our President.

USA Today poll: Newt 22%, Romney 21.

A new Gallup national poll out today puts the race at Newt 22% and Romney 21%. Cain is at 16.

New Hamphisre poll: Newt at 22%, highest anyone but Romney has gotten from the polling firm ARG

I'm sorry -- that's Newt Hampshire.

The poll was done by American Research Group.

This is the highest support any candidate other than Romney has had in any of their polls this year.

Among tea party votes, Newt leads Romney, 33-26%.

Last week, a poll, from another firm, of the Granite State showed Romney with 29% support and Newt with 27%.

A good article about the infamous hospital visit

Here's another good article to counter the malicious lies liberals (and Republicans and conservatives who want to tear Newt down) continue to peddle.

An excerpt:
Daughter Jackie Cushman told that while she could not specifically recall what her mother said in that story, her mother has told her often, and as recently as last week, “‘My words have been misconstrued,' and she feels that she was so misquoted that the reason she will never talk to the media again is that she was done such a disservice.

Video of Frank Luntz' focus group from a couple of debates ago

This is older, but for those who haven't seen it, it's a nice video.

Link to video.

Five minute video of Newt on immigratioin

Link to video.

Dorothy Rabinowitz and Steve Moore talk about Newt

Link to video.

You'll notice how level-headed Moore and Rabinowitz -- neither of whom are in the bag for Newt but simply see that he has great ideas and is catching on -- and how childish the critic of Newt sounds.

The Weekly Standard: The Iowa Frontrunner

From Michael Warren's piece:
Those oddities aside, Gingrich is likely catching on in Iowa because he’s usually one of the most eloquent Republican critics of Obama-style liberalism—within both government and the media. The audience in Jefferson groans in angry disbelief when he relates a familiar story about a dentist in New York defrauding Medicaid by filing 991 procedures a day. “[This] dental office in Brooklyn,” Gingrich says, “had somebody who stood out front and said, ‘If you loan us your Medicaid card, we’ll give you a free DVD player.’ ”

Voters across the largely agricultural state cheer when Gingrich takes on the regulatory regime of the Environmental Protection Agency, particularly a recent, widely reported proposed rule on dust. Gingrich says he guesses the regulation was written by “some person who lived in a high-rise air-conditioned apartment, who went down to ride in an air-conditioned subway to go to a high-rise air-conditioned office building [and who] sat in his windowless office and imagined dust.” In a part of the country where farming the dry prairie is a way of life and everyone regularly stirs up a cloud of dust while driving down a dirt road, that’s steak-tartare-quality red meat.
Warren quotes Newt:
“The real pedigree of this campaign is Goldwater in ’62 to ’64, and then Reagan from ’75 to ’80 in that they were idea-generated movements which evolved into a campaign,” he tells me. “They weren’t campaigns in the traditional Republican meaning of the word. And I think that’s essentially what we’re trying to do.”

Fred Barnes, who noticed McCain's surge at about this time in 2007, writes about Newt

Fred Barnes writes in the Weekly Standard:
Before you dismiss Newt Gingrich for having too much “baggage” to win the Republican presidential nomination, much less the presidency, consider this:

In 1980, when Ronald Reagan emerged as the likely Republican presidential nominee, President Carter’s advisers were thrilled. They’d done extensive opposition research. By pointing to what Reagan had said in speeches, radio commentaries, newspaper columns, and conversations, they assumed it would be easy to characterize him as a right-wing extremist. And enough voters would reject him and reelect Carter.

They were wrong. It wasn’t that voters ignored Reagan’s offbeat comments. They just didn’t think eccentric statements he’d made over the years were important. Bigger things were at stake, like Soviet aggression and a stagnant economy. And Reagan had better answers than Carter.
Jonathan Martin of Politico tweeted: "Btw, it was about this time 4 yrs ago that Barnes put his finger on McCain surge."

Newt vs Romney -- 1994 edition

The blog Legal Insurrection posted these two videos from 1994 (link and link):

Of course, with his talk of "picking teams," Romney doesn't mention that of the 202 House Democrats, 101 voted for welfare reform and 101 against. Which team were they on?

Newt and the House GOP wanted to do the right thing. Their concern was not dividing Republicans and Democrats.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Reuters national poll: Newt 24%, Romney 22, Cain 13.

Another poll shows Newt as the frontrunner, and given that Romney has dropped xix points from the last Reuters poll, Newt seems to be -- unlike Bachmann, Perry, or Cain -- drawing support from Romney voters as well as the tea party and conservative wing of the party.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

(Video) Newt's appearance in front of the Dallas Tea Party

Part 1.

Part 2.

Part 3.

Part 4.

(Video slideshow) Breakfast with Newt

Link to video.

(Video) Gingrich explains the difference between Tea Party and Occupiers

Link to video.

[Flashback post] Newt is gaining influence within the Tea Party

[I wrote this post just over a year ago, on October 28, 2010, but I think it's worth re-posting given recent polls and other news.]

Given the Tea Party's dramatic influence on the upcoming midterm elections -- whether one looks at the moderate Republicans they have already played a part in defeating or the Democrats they will knock out on November 2 -- many have begun to speculate on the movement's role in the 2012 Presidential race.

The first part of that race, of course, is deciding who the GOP will nominate to take on President Obama. The general consensus has formed, within many conservative circles as well as liberal, that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be the movement's favorite.

However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that, in the words of Pater Wallsten, "One third of Republicans support the tea party so strongly that they describe themselves as part of the movement more than they identify as Republicans. Among this group, Mr. Gingrich is considered the GOP's "most important leader."

Palin, however, does win among the Republicans who while supportive of the Tea Party movement "identifies more as Republicans."

The article also discusses the two different manners in which Gingrich and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have prepared for possible White House bids.

The reason they have followed different paths is simple: they simply view the movement differently. Whereas Romney, according to his advisers, "is betting that the tea-party groundswell, while energizing fiscal conservatives, doesn't mark a fundamental shift in the preferences of GOP voters." Basically, the movement will wither and not have an influence for much longer.

Gingrich's view as described by Wallsten:
[Gingrich] views the tea-party revolt as the dawn of an enduring movement, and he has spent more time courting tea-party activists than forging ties to Republican party leaders. Mr. Gingrich has recast his American Solutions group, launched in 2007 to press for expanded oil drilling and other policy initiatives, into a tea-party clearinghouse of sorts -- creating a curriculum to teach activists, small business owners and first-time candidates how to run campaigns. He is keeping in touch with this potential army of volunteers.
So when it comes to building a base of support for a 2012 run, Governor Romney has courted a lot of party leaders. And Newt "is traveling the country to build alliances with local tea-party activists in key presidential primary and caucus states....assign[ing] a full-time staffer at American Solutions to recruit and work with local activists across the country. Many of those now in his database live in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- key early-voting states in the presidential primaries, where Mr. Gingrich has devoted time to meeting them in small groups."

Wallsten then gives the story of one such meeting:
Elisabet Wilson, a tea-party activist who lives near Greenville, S.C., said she received a call from a Gingrich aide last spring seeking her attendance at a May roundtable with the former speaker at a local hotel. When she arrived, she found a group of nearly 30 fellow activists.

"He went around the room and asked each of us, why did you get involved?" Ms. Wilson said.

Ms. Wilson later agreed to serve as a state coordinator for American Solutions.
Wallsten continues, "Mr. Gingrich said American Solutions was intended to boost the conservative movement whether or not he runs."

"It's certainly probably broadly helpful (to a presidential campaign), but it's not designed for that,' Gingrich said." "We're happy to share our ideas and our information with everybody, with all the different candidates."

Answering the Attacks -- a new page on

To counter the dishonesty and outright lies, has launched a new page: Answering the Attacks.

Check it out -- plenty of good information to counter lies. With each new terrific poll result -- whether in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona, or Pennyslvania -- the attacks against Newt will just keep continuing to get louder.

Friday, November 18, 2011

"[B]ig leads" for Newt in Arizona and Pennsylvania

The polls won't be finished for another couple of days, but Public Policy Polling teased their surveys in Arizona and Pennsylvania:
First night in AZ and PA: Cain really fading, big leads for Newt. Makes sense bc Newt was always 2nd choice of Cain voters

(Audio) Newt interviewed on Sarah Palin Radio

Link to video.

Legal Insurrection blog: "Why I Support Newt Gingrich"

From William A. Jacobson, who is a professor at Cornell Law School, on Legal Insurrection:
As to Newt’s conservatism, one needs to view his almost 35 years in the public eye as a whole. There are few politicians who have fought as hard over so sustained a period against the false narrative in which an ever-expanding central state is seen as necessary and the decline of the United States is deemed inevitable.

While any of the Republican candidates running can argue against a particular policy or piece of legislation, only Newt has shown the ability to see the historical forest for the trees, to argue for American exceptionalism and greatness founded in history and constitutional principles, not sound bites.


Newt is uniquely capable of communicating a winning conservative vision in a persuasive and forceful manner, as the positive reaction to his debate performances demonstrates. Obama versus Newt on stage before an audience of tens of millions of voters could lead to a catastrophic defeat for Obama, while Obama versus any other current candidate could have the opposite effect.

Newt has a political history which fits very well with the current political and economic conditions. While Newt was a combative Speaker of the House, he also was someone who fought successfully to balance the budget, reform welfare, and implement an economic growth agenda with a Democratic President in office. An electorate sick and tired of Washington politics and deficits will welcome this narrative.
The whole post is outstanding, and you can read it here.

(Video) Newt slams Obama's lawsuit against South Carolina

Link to video. (1:15)

New Hampshire poll: Romney 29, Newt 27

This poll is especially noteworthy because, as the paper that sponsored the poll writes, it "is the first time any of NH Journal’s polls have shown any candidate even close to Romney."

So while many in the media keeps prattling on about how Newt is just the latest anti-Romney, this poll is yet another piece of evidence that Newt's appeal is greater than that of Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

From the story:
When asked why people felt Gingrich was moving up in the polls, 44% of respondents cited his depth of knowledge on the issues. Ten percent referred to his strong debate performances while another 6% said they liked that he was challenging the media in those debates. Ten percent referenced his past experience as Speaker of the House.

A close look at the data shows Gingrich is actually leading Romney among certain important subgroups of the electorate. Among self-identified conservative voters, Gingrich beats Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified tea party voters, he leads Romney 38%-21%.
The one quibble I have with the story: they say Romney remains "the most popular candidate in the field." They back that up by writing that Romney's favorability rating is 60/32.

Newt's? 59/31.

That is, obviously, a tie statistically, and it would have been more accurate to say that Newt has matched Romney's popularity.

New Hampshire has long been written off to Romney. The key for Newt, or another candidate to get the nomination, was always to win Iowa, don't get blown out in the Granite State, and win South Carolina. Now, Newt could win Iowa -- where he has a 13-point lead, according to Rasmussen. Then follow that up with a close second in New Hampshire. South Carolina would be a sort of tie-breaker, and Newt -- because of a superior ground game as well as better appeal to the conservative electorate -- has the advantage there.

If Newt was to win New Hampshire after Iowa, Romney would likely be finished right then.

(Video) Newt's address to National Federation of Republican Assemblies

Link to video. (3:06)

(Video) Newt to Occupy hecklers: "There is no such thing in America as the 99%"

This happened when Newt was speaking Thursday at a Jacksonville tea party rally with maybe 1000 people:

Link to video from.

Newt 2012 has raised $4 million since October 1; campaign debt to be erased "soon"

Link on the four million raised and link on the debt.

We're basically halfway through the 4th quarter. So even if the campaign does no better over the second half of the quarter than the first it will raise 8 million. But the chances are it will do better, hopefully much better.

And the debt about to be paid off is especially notable because it's not as if all the incoming money is all going toward retiring the debt. That money has also gone toward building the biggest South Carolina organization of any campaign and growing structures in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

(Video) Newt discussing education and other issues in Iowa

Link to video. (2:20)

Iowa poll: Newt 32, Romney 19, Cain 13

So says the new Rasmussen poll. writes:
In the crosstabs, Gingrich is winning across most of the demos now. He leads Romney by double digits among men and women, wins every age and income demo, and leads both Republicans and independents. Romney only bests Gingrich among ideological “others,” those who do not identify as “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative.” Interestingly, Gingrich leads among Tea Party adherents by a wide margin, 43% to 17% for Cain and only 9% for Romney. Gingrich leads most of the religious demos, too, with 33% of evangelicals (Cain second at 14%), 31% of Protestants (Romney close at 28%), and Catholics (39% to Romney’s 21%). Only among “others” does Gingrich trail, 22%, to 24% for … Ron Paul.

Of course, several candidates have grabbed this kind of momentum in this race, only to come up empty within a few weeks. Can Gingrich maintain this momentum? As the media and other candidates step up their scrutiny of the former Speaker, we will certainly find out. One thing is almost certain: unlike the previous bubble candidates, it won’t be a debate that trips Gingrich.

Newt re-adds two Iowa staffers

(Update: Schoenfeld will now be the senior adviser and Koberg his deputy.

"More paid staff announcements are pending as well as the opening of seven campaign offices statewide," writes NBC.)

Newt re-added two Iowa staffers today: Craig Schoenfeld, who had served as executive director of the Iowa team, and Katie Koberg, who was deputy director. had this to say about Koberg back in May:
Koberg is an exceptional hire for Gingrich. With so many of Iowa’s political operatives now working in state government since the state has a Republican governor for the first time in over a decade, there are not that many operatives with a resume like Koberg’s out there for presidential candidates to choose from.

Over a span of almost six years, Koberg has developed contacts and relationships with legislative candidates across the state through here work at Iowans for Tax Relief. Those relationships, and her knowledge of the political landscape across the state, will be an asset for the Gingrich campaign.
The same writer, Craig Robinson, said this of Schoenfeld:
Schoenfeld is a long-time veteran of local and statewide Iowa political campaigns. In 2004, he ran the Iowa Victory effort for President Bush, in addition to working on President Bush’s successful caucus effort in 2000.


Schoenfeld provides Gingrich with an understanding of how Iowa caucus campaigns operate.

(Audio) Newt's interview with Mark Levin from Wednesday

Link to video.

Fox News poll: Newt 23, Romney 22, Cain 15

Another poll that has Newt in the top spot (albeit in a statistical tie).
Among GOP primary voters who are part of the Tea Party movement, Gingrich is the top pick (35 percent), followed by Cain (20 percent). Romney (15 percent) comes in third -- receiving less than half Gingrich’s support among this group.
When asked who they would trust most with nuclear weapons, nearly twice as many primary voters say Gingrich than Romney (30 percent and 17 percent respectively). Those voters would least trust Paul (13 percent), Bachmann (11 percent) and Cain (10 percent) with nukes.

Great volunteer conference call tonight

Kellen Guida (follow him on Twitter here) and Jacob Hawkins (Twitter profile) both did a terrific job tonight on the conference call. There will be some very exciting developments for volunteers in the next week or so.

To sign up to volunteer (and to get e-mails about future calls) please sign up at

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

"Is Newt Gingrich America's Churchill?"

That's the question Jeffrey Lord of American Spectator asks.

It's much too long to quote a whole lot, but one of my favorite parts:
On July 24th of 1939, a sign suddenly appeared on the Strand in London reading simply:
What Price Churchill?
Lord concludes with:
What do all these polls showing Newt Gingrich on the rise actually mean? What is it that a growing number of Republican voters are asking after each of these debates?

They appear to be asking the American 2011 version of what the British people abruptly found themselves asking in that long ago summer of 1939.

What price Gingrich? Newt is aiming to "restor[e] the Rule of Law to our country."

From Jen Green on
As I said, all those reasons are valid and true. However, the media is missing (or failing to mention) one key reason why Newt Gingrich is getting a new look from the base of the GOP and independents.

It all started back in the beginning of October, when we heard rumblings that Newt would be releasing a new and improved Contract with America—but now to be called “The 21st Century Contract with America.” I’ll admit, I scoffed bit at first . . . until I was able to get a sneak peak at just one section about curtailing judicial supremacy and returning us to the rule of law. After reading it I knew it was going to be a game-changer.

Then came Newt’s Value voters speech which he gave at the Value Voter’s Summit in D.C. on October 7. Here’s the link to the entire speech—if you watch it I think you can sense the shift in the mood of the room as Gingrich keeps talking. Here’s a paragraph from fairly early on in the speech and where the audience really started getting on board:
“Let me be clear. Judicial supremacy is factually wrong, it is morally wrong, and it is an affront to the American system of self-government. (Cheers, applause.) One of the major reasons that I am running for president of the United States is the 9th Circuit Court decision in 2002 that one nation under God, in the Pledge of Allegiance, was unconstitutional. That decision to me had the same effect that the Dred Scott decision extending slavery to the whole country had on Abraham Lincoln, because I thought, if an American appeals court could be so radically out of touch with America that it could seek to block children from saying one nation under God as part of their description of America, that we had come to a point when we needed a constitutional crisis to reassert the legislative and executive branches’ legitimate prerogatives to teach the judiciary that they cannot be anti-American and expect us to tolerate them radically changing our society by judicial dictate.”
Just two weeks later, Newt gave a similar speech at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event. But, more importantly, during the question and answer section he once again gave an overview of what America must do to rein in the runaway judicial system in response to what he would do to protect life and marriage. Folks at the event responded heartily. Newt’s rise has been steady since then.

Coincidence? I think not. Christians and Conservatives around this country understand that no matter what we may want to do to get our country back to exceptionalism, we have to curb judicial supremacy and the lawyer class. Newt Gingrich became the only person to articulate that in his Value Voters Speech on October 7, again on October 23, and he’s been mentioning it in speeches across the country ever since.

His rise in the polls comes now that he’s given us a compelling reason to consider him as our Commander-in-chief: restoring the Rule of Law to our country.

Read what an Iowan said after Newt speak today

Rob Taylor of West Des Moines:
“Of all the things that man said, it was simply, ‘I don’t want you to be for me, I want you to be with me',” Taylor said. “That’s a whole shift in the mindset. That’s a JFK moment. It’s getting us back to the core, getting citizens engaged in government, getting them out to vote.”

Two endorsements for Newt, one in Iowa and one in Georgia

Yesterday, Iowa State Reprensative Joshua Byrnes (you can follow him on Twitter here) endorsed Newt.

Today, a staunch Rick Perry supporter in Georgia -- the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said he may have been Perry's "most ardent supporter" in Georgia -- endorsed Newt. John Douglas, who was a state senator, wrote on Facebook:
“After very careful consideration and lengthy discussions with many key supporters, I am leaving the Perry camp, effective immediately. I no longer see a path to victory for him and have had great difficulties dealing with his staff.

“I still like many of his policies and would have no problem voting for him if he is our nominee. Now I am endorsing Newt Gingrich for President and will spend time in the near future explaining that move. Suffice it to say tonight that Newt champions the culture war I believe in fighting and he is a brilliant, very well-spoken man. I am pleased to endorse him for President.”

Newt 2012 has raised $3.5 million since October 1

One of every two donors is new to the campaign, says the campaign's press secretary, R.C. Hammond.

(Video) Newt's interview with Laura Ingraham

Link to video.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Poll: Newt runs the best of any Republican against Obama

Newt trails President Obama by two points, 47-45, says a McClatchy-Marist poll. That's the best of any Republican.

Newt wins among indepedents, 47-41.

Mitt Romney is next at a four point deficit, 48-44. Then Ron Paul, who is down eight, 49-41.

Newt Hampshire!

Following a surge in national polls, Newt Gingrich's distinctive name peppered news headlines frequently over the weekend with gems like "Newtmentum" and "Newtvember."

Today, in a move that no other candidate can replicate, the campaign has told NBC News it is joining in the fun, rolling out "Newt Hampshire!", a social media volunteer platform wholly dedicated to Granite State volunteers.

Communications director Matt LeDuc said the site's content and mobilization strategy will "utterly blow your mind." The site will fully debut next Monday, the same day the former Speaker of the House will return to New Hampshire. Gingrich will participate in an editorial board meeting with the Union Leader newspaper and participate in a couple of campaign stops.

This comes as Gingrich rapidly expands his political operation in New Hampshire, a state in which his staff hopes will be the second stop of a sustained "surge" through the primary season.

The Gingrich campaign has also hired a new senior advisor with a name well known in the Granite State: Jim Wieczorek, an ex-staffer for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and son of sitting executive councilor Ray Wieczorek. He is also vice president of an insurance company bearing the family name.

Wieczorek will be joined by newly-minted captains of all 10 New Hampshire counties, according to Gingrich's New Hampshire state director, Andrew Hemingway.

California GOP poll: Newt 33%, Romney 23%, Cain 22%, Perry 6%

Writes Public Policy Polling:
One thing the California numbers really point to is that if Cain's support continues declining Gingrich has the potential to benefit in a major way. Among Cain voters 42% say Gingrich would be their second choice compared to 14% for Bachmann, 12% for Romney, and only 8% for Perry. Cain voters are fond of Gingrich, giving him a 60/30 favorability rating. Meanwhile they're not too keen on either Romney (30/56) or Perry (32/54). Neither of those guys is very well positioned to benefit if the bottom falls out on Cain.
Newt's overall favorability rating is 68/26.

Newt does the best among tea partiers, winning the support of 37% of those who identify with the tea party movement. Cain gets 29%. The next closest are Rick Perry and Ron Paul at 10%. Romney gets 9%.

Newt ties Romney with those who do not consider themselves part of the tea party movement with 30%. Cain gets 19% of those.

Newt is the only candidate who shows the ability to draw significant support from both the tea party and non-tea party wings of the GOP.

Newt's favorability among different groups:
Somewhat liberal voters: 54-37%
Moderate: 48-41
Somewhat conservative: 63-28
Very conservative: 79-18
Among women: 69-23%. Among men: 66-28%. Newt leads among both genders. He's also the top second choice of both men and women.

Among different age groups:
18-45: 63-30
46-65: 65-28
65+: 78-16

Newt polling 7 points better among independents and 4 better among Democrats in the last month

"Gingrich's improvement has come across the board -- he's doing 7 points better with independents, 4 points better with Democrats, and 4 points better with Republicans," writes Public Policy Polling today.

That translates into Newt trimming an eleven point deficit last month into just a six point one now, 49-43. (For context, Jimmy Carter was beating Ronald Reagan about 60-30 at this point in 1979.)

Only Mitt Romney, who trails Obama 46-43, does better than Newt among Republicans.

(Video) Newt on personanl retirement accounts

Link to video. (1:21.)

(Video) Newt's interview with Hannity from Monday night

Link to video.

(Audio) Newt on New Hampshire radio

Link to interview.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Video and audio from Newt's day in Iowa

Video of Newt answering an Iowan voter on how he plans to seal the deal with her and others. (I posted the full audio here.)

Audio of Newt's event in Iowa at GuideOne Insurance.

Audio of an interview did after the event.

Audio of interview with Lillie Anderson, the voter who asked Newt the question about sealing the deal.

Iowan so impressed by Newt today that he writes a $2500 check on the spot

The Wall Street Journal: "Doug Reichardt, chairman of a nearby company, said he was so impressed Monday that he wrote a $2,500 check to the campaign on the spot."

At the same event today in Iowa, Newt was asked by Lillie Anderson, who is 76 and who is leaning toward Newt, what would he do to seal the deal with her and other voters.

Here's the audio of his answer.

(Video) Newt in South Carolina this past weekend

Here are some videos shot by a person attending Newt's event at Furman University Saturday:

Link to video.

Link to a video on Social Security.

Immigration video.

Video on Lincoln-Douglas debates.

What a general election between Newt and Obama would look like.

Digging deeper into today's polls

The headlines from today's poll are, deservedly, that Newt is basically in a statistical tie for first place nationally and Iowa.

But there is plenty of other good news in the polls that suggests Newt has plenty of room to keep improving. His favorability, according to Public Policy Polling's poll, is by far the best in the GOP field:
Newt: 68 favorable/23 unfavorable
Cain: 57/31
Romney: 48/39
Bachmann: 40/41
Perry: 35/49
Romney's favorability numbers is at a six-month low.

Newt is seen favorably by Cain voters 73/21. They view Romney 33/55 and Perry 32/53.

Women view Newt favorably 67/21. Men view Newt 69/26. Newt gets the support of 31% of women surveyed and 26% of men.

Those darn women voters just cannot stand him!

Across age groups:
18 to 29: 64-36%
30-45: 60-30%
46-65: 73-18%
65 and older: 69-23%
No other candidate is above water with all age groups.

CNN's poll finds Newt's favorability with all adult Americans is 36/39, which has improved from 30/44 since June. Romney is the best but only at 39/35. Ron Paul is at 32/34.

They find Newt's favorability rating to be 61/21.

Newt's favorability with all adult males to be 39/39. With women, it's 33/39.

Recap of today's polling news

The great polling news continued today:

Public Policy Polling has the race looking like this:

Newt: 28%

Cain: 25%

Romney: 18%


Romney: 24%

Newt: 22%

Cain: 14%

Perry: 12%

Paul: 8%

Bachmann: 6%

Poll Position asked who people would vote for in a one-on-one matchup:

Newt 56/ Cain - 30%

Newt 57/Romney 24%

An Iowa poll:

Cain: 20%

Gingrich: 19%

Romney: 14%

Sunday, November 13, 2011

“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney."

This was written before Newt's great polling news Friday -- so it understates his current position -- but it's still very good.

From the Washington Times:
“I definitely think it ends up Newt versus [former Massachusetts Gov.] Mitt Romney at some point after the caucuses and primaries are under way,” said Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, a Republican who has endorsed the Georgian in her state’s key January caucuses.

“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney,” said Polk County, Iowa, GOP Chairman Daryl Kearney. “All national polls now have Newt with a solid hold on third place.”
“Evangelicals will definitely go for Newt if he is the nominee,” insisted Jim Garlow, credited with organizing the evangelicals in the drive to pass a same-sex marriage ban in California. “I used to hear them say, ‘He’s the smartest one in the room, but he has personal issues.’ I’ve seen an enormous shift in the past four or five months. They no longer talk about personal issues, but about intelligence and capability of being president.”

Mr. Garlow, senior pastor of the Skyline Wesleyan Church in San Diego, said if the nomination fight came down to Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich, “I’m guessing 80 [percent] to 90 percent of the evangelical vote in America would go to Newt. Romney’s Mormonism may be a factor, but the reason I hear most is they don’t trust Romney on abortion, marriage, economics and health care.”

“I think, no question, evangelicals will go for Newt if it comes down to him and Romney,” said Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Director Steve Scheffler, credited with organizing support for Pat Robertson’s stunning second-place finish in the 1988 Iowa caucuses. “Evangelicals are concerned with personal conduct, but most will judge people on their present conduct, and they have concluded Newt’s present lifestyle is exemplary.”
On the primary calendar and the new RNC rules:
Under the Republican nominating calendar, no candidate can mathematically accumulate the 1,143 delegates required to win at the August presidential nominating convention until March 24 at the earliest, according to an analysis by The Washington Times.

Even that date is unlikely because before April 3, no state can have a winner-take-all primary or caucuses — they must all award delegates proportionately by congressional districts. Sweeping even one state’s delegates, much less the 30 contests scheduled through March 24, is practically impossible in a fully contested race.
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