Part 1.
Part 2.
Part 3.
Part 4.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
[Flashback post] Newt is gaining influence within the Tea Party
[I wrote this post just over a year ago, on October 28, 2010, but I think it's worth re-posting given recent polls and other news.]
Given the Tea Party's dramatic influence on the upcoming midterm elections -- whether one looks at the moderate Republicans they have already played a part in defeating or the Democrats they will knock out on November 2 -- many have begun to speculate on the movement's role in the 2012 Presidential race.
The first part of that race, of course, is deciding who the GOP will nominate to take on President Obama. The general consensus has formed, within many conservative circles as well as liberal, that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be the movement's favorite.
However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that, in the words of Pater Wallsten, "One third of Republicans support the tea party so strongly that they describe themselves as part of the movement more than they identify as Republicans. Among this group, Mr. Gingrich is considered the GOP's "most important leader."
Palin, however, does win among the Republicans who while supportive of the Tea Party movement "identifies more as Republicans."
The article also discusses the two different manners in which Gingrich and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have prepared for possible White House bids.
The reason they have followed different paths is simple: they simply view the movement differently. Whereas Romney, according to his advisers, "is betting that the tea-party groundswell, while energizing fiscal conservatives, doesn't mark a fundamental shift in the preferences of GOP voters." Basically, the movement will wither and not have an influence for much longer.
Gingrich's view as described by Wallsten:
Wallsten then gives the story of one such meeting:
"It's certainly probably broadly helpful (to a presidential campaign), but it's not designed for that,' Gingrich said." "We're happy to share our ideas and our information with everybody, with all the different candidates."
Given the Tea Party's dramatic influence on the upcoming midterm elections -- whether one looks at the moderate Republicans they have already played a part in defeating or the Democrats they will knock out on November 2 -- many have begun to speculate on the movement's role in the 2012 Presidential race.
The first part of that race, of course, is deciding who the GOP will nominate to take on President Obama. The general consensus has formed, within many conservative circles as well as liberal, that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be the movement's favorite.
However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that, in the words of Pater Wallsten, "One third of Republicans support the tea party so strongly that they describe themselves as part of the movement more than they identify as Republicans. Among this group, Mr. Gingrich is considered the GOP's "most important leader."
Palin, however, does win among the Republicans who while supportive of the Tea Party movement "identifies more as Republicans."
The article also discusses the two different manners in which Gingrich and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have prepared for possible White House bids.
The reason they have followed different paths is simple: they simply view the movement differently. Whereas Romney, according to his advisers, "is betting that the tea-party groundswell, while energizing fiscal conservatives, doesn't mark a fundamental shift in the preferences of GOP voters." Basically, the movement will wither and not have an influence for much longer.
Gingrich's view as described by Wallsten:
[Gingrich] views the tea-party revolt as the dawn of an enduring movement, and he has spent more time courting tea-party activists than forging ties to Republican party leaders. Mr. Gingrich has recast his American Solutions group, launched in 2007 to press for expanded oil drilling and other policy initiatives, into a tea-party clearinghouse of sorts -- creating a curriculum to teach activists, small business owners and first-time candidates how to run campaigns. He is keeping in touch with this potential army of volunteers.So when it comes to building a base of support for a 2012 run, Governor Romney has courted a lot of party leaders. And Newt "is traveling the country to build alliances with local tea-party activists in key presidential primary and caucus states....assign[ing] a full-time staffer at American Solutions to recruit and work with local activists across the country. Many of those now in his database live in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- key early-voting states in the presidential primaries, where Mr. Gingrich has devoted time to meeting them in small groups."
Wallsten then gives the story of one such meeting:
Elisabet Wilson, a tea-party activist who lives near Greenville, S.C., said she received a call from a Gingrich aide last spring seeking her attendance at a May roundtable with the former speaker at a local hotel. When she arrived, she found a group of nearly 30 fellow activists.Wallsten continues, "Mr. Gingrich said American Solutions was intended to boost the conservative movement whether or not he runs."
"He went around the room and asked each of us, why did you get involved?" Ms. Wilson said.
Ms. Wilson later agreed to serve as a state coordinator for American Solutions.
"It's certainly probably broadly helpful (to a presidential campaign), but it's not designed for that,' Gingrich said." "We're happy to share our ideas and our information with everybody, with all the different candidates."
Answering the Attacks -- a new page on Newt.org
To counter the dishonesty and outright lies, Newt.org has launched a new page: Answering the Attacks.
Check it out -- plenty of good information to counter lies. With each new terrific poll result -- whether in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona, or Pennyslvania -- the attacks against Newt will just keep continuing to get louder.
Check it out -- plenty of good information to counter lies. With each new terrific poll result -- whether in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona, or Pennyslvania -- the attacks against Newt will just keep continuing to get louder.
Friday, November 18, 2011
"[B]ig leads" for Newt in Arizona and Pennsylvania
The polls won't be finished for another couple of days, but Public Policy Polling teased their surveys in Arizona and Pennsylvania:
First night in AZ and PA: Cain really fading, big leads for Newt. Makes sense bc Newt was always 2nd choice of Cain voters
Legal Insurrection blog: "Why I Support Newt Gingrich"
From William A. Jacobson, who is a professor at Cornell Law School, on Legal Insurrection:
As to Newt’s conservatism, one needs to view his almost 35 years in the public eye as a whole. There are few politicians who have fought as hard over so sustained a period against the false narrative in which an ever-expanding central state is seen as necessary and the decline of the United States is deemed inevitable.The whole post is outstanding, and you can read it here.
While any of the Republican candidates running can argue against a particular policy or piece of legislation, only Newt has shown the ability to see the historical forest for the trees, to argue for American exceptionalism and greatness founded in history and constitutional principles, not sound bites.
...
Newt is uniquely capable of communicating a winning conservative vision in a persuasive and forceful manner, as the positive reaction to his debate performances demonstrates. Obama versus Newt on stage before an audience of tens of millions of voters could lead to a catastrophic defeat for Obama, while Obama versus any other current candidate could have the opposite effect.
Newt has a political history which fits very well with the current political and economic conditions. While Newt was a combative Speaker of the House, he also was someone who fought successfully to balance the budget, reform welfare, and implement an economic growth agenda with a Democratic President in office. An electorate sick and tired of Washington politics and deficits will welcome this narrative.
New Hampshire poll: Romney 29, Newt 27
This poll is especially noteworthy because, as the paper that sponsored the poll writes, it "is the first time any of NH Journal’s polls have shown any candidate even close to Romney."
So while many in the media keeps prattling on about how Newt is just the latest anti-Romney, this poll is yet another piece of evidence that Newt's appeal is greater than that of Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.
From the story:
Newt's? 59/31.
That is, obviously, a tie statistically, and it would have been more accurate to say that Newt has matched Romney's popularity.
New Hampshire has long been written off to Romney. The key for Newt, or another candidate to get the nomination, was always to win Iowa, don't get blown out in the Granite State, and win South Carolina. Now, Newt could win Iowa -- where he has a 13-point lead, according to Rasmussen. Then follow that up with a close second in New Hampshire. South Carolina would be a sort of tie-breaker, and Newt -- because of a superior ground game as well as better appeal to the conservative electorate -- has the advantage there.
If Newt was to win New Hampshire after Iowa, Romney would likely be finished right then.
So while many in the media keeps prattling on about how Newt is just the latest anti-Romney, this poll is yet another piece of evidence that Newt's appeal is greater than that of Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.
From the story:
When asked why people felt Gingrich was moving up in the polls, 44% of respondents cited his depth of knowledge on the issues. Ten percent referred to his strong debate performances while another 6% said they liked that he was challenging the media in those debates. Ten percent referenced his past experience as Speaker of the House.The one quibble I have with the story: they say Romney remains "the most popular candidate in the field." They back that up by writing that Romney's favorability rating is 60/32.
A close look at the data shows Gingrich is actually leading Romney among certain important subgroups of the electorate. Among self-identified conservative voters, Gingrich beats Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified tea party voters, he leads Romney 38%-21%.
Newt's? 59/31.
That is, obviously, a tie statistically, and it would have been more accurate to say that Newt has matched Romney's popularity.
New Hampshire has long been written off to Romney. The key for Newt, or another candidate to get the nomination, was always to win Iowa, don't get blown out in the Granite State, and win South Carolina. Now, Newt could win Iowa -- where he has a 13-point lead, according to Rasmussen. Then follow that up with a close second in New Hampshire. South Carolina would be a sort of tie-breaker, and Newt -- because of a superior ground game as well as better appeal to the conservative electorate -- has the advantage there.
If Newt was to win New Hampshire after Iowa, Romney would likely be finished right then.
(Video) Newt to Occupy hecklers: "There is no such thing in America as the 99%"
This happened when Newt was speaking Thursday at a Jacksonville tea party rally with maybe 1000 people:
Link to video from.
Link to video from.
Newt 2012 has raised $4 million since October 1; campaign debt to be erased "soon"
Link on the four million raised and link on the debt.
We're basically halfway through the 4th quarter. So even if the campaign does no better over the second half of the quarter than the first it will raise 8 million. But the chances are it will do better, hopefully much better.
And the debt about to be paid off is especially notable because it's not as if all the incoming money is all going toward retiring the debt. That money has also gone toward building the biggest South Carolina organization of any campaign and growing structures in Iowa and New Hampshire.
We're basically halfway through the 4th quarter. So even if the campaign does no better over the second half of the quarter than the first it will raise 8 million. But the chances are it will do better, hopefully much better.
And the debt about to be paid off is especially notable because it's not as if all the incoming money is all going toward retiring the debt. That money has also gone toward building the biggest South Carolina organization of any campaign and growing structures in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Iowa poll: Newt 32, Romney 19, Cain 13
So says the new Rasmussen poll.
HotAir.com writes:
HotAir.com writes:
In the crosstabs, Gingrich is winning across most of the demos now. He leads Romney by double digits among men and women, wins every age and income demo, and leads both Republicans and independents. Romney only bests Gingrich among ideological “others,” those who do not identify as “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative.” Interestingly, Gingrich leads among Tea Party adherents by a wide margin, 43% to 17% for Cain and only 9% for Romney. Gingrich leads most of the religious demos, too, with 33% of evangelicals (Cain second at 14%), 31% of Protestants (Romney close at 28%), and Catholics (39% to Romney’s 21%). Only among “others” does Gingrich trail, 22%, to 24% for … Ron Paul.
Of course, several candidates have grabbed this kind of momentum in this race, only to come up empty within a few weeks. Can Gingrich maintain this momentum? As the media and other candidates step up their scrutiny of the former Speaker, we will certainly find out. One thing is almost certain: unlike the previous bubble candidates, it won’t be a debate that trips Gingrich.
Newt re-adds two Iowa staffers
(Update: Schoenfeld will now be the senior adviser and Koberg his deputy.
"More paid staff announcements are pending as well as the opening of seven campaign offices statewide," writes NBC.)
Newt re-added two Iowa staffers today: Craig Schoenfeld, who had served as executive director of the Iowa team, and Katie Koberg, who was deputy director.
TheIowaRepublican.com had this to say about Koberg back in May:
"More paid staff announcements are pending as well as the opening of seven campaign offices statewide," writes NBC.)
Newt re-added two Iowa staffers today: Craig Schoenfeld, who had served as executive director of the Iowa team, and Katie Koberg, who was deputy director.
TheIowaRepublican.com had this to say about Koberg back in May:
Koberg is an exceptional hire for Gingrich. With so many of Iowa’s political operatives now working in state government since the state has a Republican governor for the first time in over a decade, there are not that many operatives with a resume like Koberg’s out there for presidential candidates to choose from.The same writer, Craig Robinson, said this of Schoenfeld:
Over a span of almost six years, Koberg has developed contacts and relationships with legislative candidates across the state through here work at Iowans for Tax Relief. Those relationships, and her knowledge of the political landscape across the state, will be an asset for the Gingrich campaign.
Schoenfeld is a long-time veteran of local and statewide Iowa political campaigns. In 2004, he ran the Iowa Victory effort for President Bush, in addition to working on President Bush’s successful caucus effort in 2000.
...
Schoenfeld provides Gingrich with an understanding of how Iowa caucus campaigns operate.
Fox News poll: Newt 23, Romney 22, Cain 15
Another poll that has Newt in the top spot (albeit in a statistical tie).
Among GOP primary voters who are part of the Tea Party movement, Gingrich is the top pick (35 percent), followed by Cain (20 percent). Romney (15 percent) comes in third -- receiving less than half Gingrich’s support among this group.
When asked who they would trust most with nuclear weapons, nearly twice as many primary voters say Gingrich than Romney (30 percent and 17 percent respectively). Those voters would least trust Paul (13 percent), Bachmann (11 percent) and Cain (10 percent) with nukes.
Great volunteer conference call tonight
Kellen Guida (follow him on Twitter here) and Jacob Hawkins (Twitter profile) both did a terrific job tonight on the conference call. There will be some very exciting developments for volunteers in the next week or so.
To sign up to volunteer (and to get e-mails about future calls) please sign up at Newt.org/volunteer.
To sign up to volunteer (and to get e-mails about future calls) please sign up at Newt.org/volunteer.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
"Is Newt Gingrich America's Churchill?"
That's the question Jeffrey Lord of American Spectator asks.
It's much too long to quote a whole lot, but one of my favorite parts:
It's much too long to quote a whole lot, but one of my favorite parts:
On July 24th of 1939, a sign suddenly appeared on the Strand in London reading simply:Lord concludes with:
What Price Churchill?
What do all these polls showing Newt Gingrich on the rise actually mean? What is it that a growing number of Republican voters are asking after each of these debates?
They appear to be asking the American 2011 version of what the British people abruptly found themselves asking in that long ago summer of 1939.
What price Gingrich?
SteveDeace.com: Newt is aiming to "restor[e] the Rule of Law to our country."
From Jen Green on SteveDeace.com:
As I said, all those reasons are valid and true. However, the media is missing (or failing to mention) one key reason why Newt Gingrich is getting a new look from the base of the GOP and independents.
It all started back in the beginning of October, when we heard rumblings that Newt would be releasing a new and improved Contract with America—but now to be called “The 21st Century Contract with America.” I’ll admit, I scoffed bit at first . . . until I was able to get a sneak peak at just one section about curtailing judicial supremacy and returning us to the rule of law. After reading it I knew it was going to be a game-changer.
Then came Newt’s Value voters speech which he gave at the Value Voter’s Summit in D.C. on October 7. Here’s the link to the entire speech—if you watch it I think you can sense the shift in the mood of the room as Gingrich keeps talking. Here’s a paragraph from fairly early on in the speech and where the audience really started getting on board:
“Let me be clear. Judicial supremacy is factually wrong, it is morally wrong, and it is an affront to the American system of self-government. (Cheers, applause.) One of the major reasons that I am running for president of the United States is the 9th Circuit Court decision in 2002 that one nation under God, in the Pledge of Allegiance, was unconstitutional. That decision to me had the same effect that the Dred Scott decision extending slavery to the whole country had on Abraham Lincoln, because I thought, if an American appeals court could be so radically out of touch with America that it could seek to block children from saying one nation under God as part of their description of America, that we had come to a point when we needed a constitutional crisis to reassert the legislative and executive branches’ legitimate prerogatives to teach the judiciary that they cannot be anti-American and expect us to tolerate them radically changing our society by judicial dictate.”Just two weeks later, Newt gave a similar speech at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event. But, more importantly, during the question and answer section he once again gave an overview of what America must do to rein in the runaway judicial system in response to what he would do to protect life and marriage. Folks at the event responded heartily. Newt’s rise has been steady since then.
Coincidence? I think not. Christians and Conservatives around this country understand that no matter what we may want to do to get our country back to exceptionalism, we have to curb judicial supremacy and the lawyer class. Newt Gingrich became the only person to articulate that in his Value Voters Speech on October 7, again on October 23, and he’s been mentioning it in speeches across the country ever since.
His rise in the polls comes now that he’s given us a compelling reason to consider him as our Commander-in-chief: restoring the Rule of Law to our country.
Read what an Iowan said after Newt speak today
Rob Taylor of West Des Moines:
“Of all the things that man said, it was simply, ‘I don’t want you to be for me, I want you to be with me',” Taylor said. “That’s a whole shift in the mindset. That’s a JFK moment. It’s getting us back to the core, getting citizens engaged in government, getting them out to vote.”
Two endorsements for Newt, one in Iowa and one in Georgia
Yesterday, Iowa State Reprensative Joshua Byrnes (you can follow him on Twitter here) endorsed Newt.
Today, a staunch Rick Perry supporter in Georgia -- the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said he may have been Perry's "most ardent supporter" in Georgia -- endorsed Newt. John Douglas, who was a state senator, wrote on Facebook:
Today, a staunch Rick Perry supporter in Georgia -- the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said he may have been Perry's "most ardent supporter" in Georgia -- endorsed Newt. John Douglas, who was a state senator, wrote on Facebook:
“After very careful consideration and lengthy discussions with many key supporters, I am leaving the Perry camp, effective immediately. I no longer see a path to victory for him and have had great difficulties dealing with his staff.
“I still like many of his policies and would have no problem voting for him if he is our nominee. Now I am endorsing Newt Gingrich for President and will spend time in the near future explaining that move. Suffice it to say tonight that Newt champions the culture war I believe in fighting and he is a brilliant, very well-spoken man. I am pleased to endorse him for President.”
Newt 2012 has raised $3.5 million since October 1
One of every two donors is new to the campaign, says the campaign's press secretary, R.C. Hammond.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Poll: Newt runs the best of any Republican against Obama
Newt trails President Obama by two points, 47-45, says a McClatchy-Marist poll. That's the best of any Republican.
Newt wins among indepedents, 47-41.
Mitt Romney is next at a four point deficit, 48-44. Then Ron Paul, who is down eight, 49-41.
Newt wins among indepedents, 47-41.
Mitt Romney is next at a four point deficit, 48-44. Then Ron Paul, who is down eight, 49-41.
Newt Hampshire!
NBC:
Following a surge in national polls, Newt Gingrich's distinctive name peppered news headlines frequently over the weekend with gems like "Newtmentum" and "Newtvember."
Today, in a move that no other candidate can replicate, the campaign has told NBC News it is joining in the fun, rolling out "Newt Hampshire!", a social media volunteer platform wholly dedicated to Granite State volunteers.
Communications director Matt LeDuc said the site's content and mobilization strategy will "utterly blow your mind." The site will fully debut next Monday, the same day the former Speaker of the House will return to New Hampshire. Gingrich will participate in an editorial board meeting with the Union Leader newspaper and participate in a couple of campaign stops.
This comes as Gingrich rapidly expands his political operation in New Hampshire, a state in which his staff hopes will be the second stop of a sustained "surge" through the primary season.
The Gingrich campaign has also hired a new senior advisor with a name well known in the Granite State: Jim Wieczorek, an ex-staffer for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and son of sitting executive councilor Ray Wieczorek. He is also vice president of an insurance company bearing the family name.
Wieczorek will be joined by newly-minted captains of all 10 New Hampshire counties, according to Gingrich's New Hampshire state director, Andrew Hemingway.
California GOP poll: Newt 33%, Romney 23%, Cain 22%, Perry 6%
Writes Public Policy Polling:
Newt does the best among tea partiers, winning the support of 37% of those who identify with the tea party movement. Cain gets 29%. The next closest are Rick Perry and Ron Paul at 10%. Romney gets 9%.
Newt ties Romney with those who do not consider themselves part of the tea party movement with 30%. Cain gets 19% of those.
Newt is the only candidate who shows the ability to draw significant support from both the tea party and non-tea party wings of the GOP.
Newt's favorability among different groups:
Among different age groups:
One thing the California numbers really point to is that if Cain's support continues declining Gingrich has the potential to benefit in a major way. Among Cain voters 42% say Gingrich would be their second choice compared to 14% for Bachmann, 12% for Romney, and only 8% for Perry. Cain voters are fond of Gingrich, giving him a 60/30 favorability rating. Meanwhile they're not too keen on either Romney (30/56) or Perry (32/54). Neither of those guys is very well positioned to benefit if the bottom falls out on Cain.Newt's overall favorability rating is 68/26.
Newt does the best among tea partiers, winning the support of 37% of those who identify with the tea party movement. Cain gets 29%. The next closest are Rick Perry and Ron Paul at 10%. Romney gets 9%.
Newt ties Romney with those who do not consider themselves part of the tea party movement with 30%. Cain gets 19% of those.
Newt is the only candidate who shows the ability to draw significant support from both the tea party and non-tea party wings of the GOP.
Newt's favorability among different groups:
Somewhat liberal voters: 54-37%Among women: 69-23%. Among men: 66-28%. Newt leads among both genders. He's also the top second choice of both men and women.
Moderate: 48-41
Somewhat conservative: 63-28
Very conservative: 79-18
Among different age groups:
18-45: 63-30
46-65: 65-28
65+: 78-16
Newt polling 7 points better among independents and 4 better among Democrats in the last month
"Gingrich's improvement has come across the board -- he's doing 7 points better with independents, 4 points better with Democrats, and 4 points better with Republicans," writes Public Policy Polling today.
That translates into Newt trimming an eleven point deficit last month into just a six point one now, 49-43. (For context, Jimmy Carter was beating Ronald Reagan about 60-30 at this point in 1979.)
Only Mitt Romney, who trails Obama 46-43, does better than Newt among Republicans.
That translates into Newt trimming an eleven point deficit last month into just a six point one now, 49-43. (For context, Jimmy Carter was beating Ronald Reagan about 60-30 at this point in 1979.)
Only Mitt Romney, who trails Obama 46-43, does better than Newt among Republicans.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Video and audio from Newt's day in Iowa
Video of Newt answering an Iowan voter on how he plans to seal the deal with her and others. (I posted the full audio here.)
Audio of Newt's event in Iowa at GuideOne Insurance.
Audio of an interview did after the event.
Audio of interview with Lillie Anderson, the voter who asked Newt the question about sealing the deal.
Audio of Newt's event in Iowa at GuideOne Insurance.
Audio of an interview did after the event.
Audio of interview with Lillie Anderson, the voter who asked Newt the question about sealing the deal.
Iowan so impressed by Newt today that he writes a $2500 check on the spot
The Wall Street Journal: "Doug Reichardt, chairman of a nearby company, said he was so impressed Monday that he wrote a $2,500 check to the campaign on the spot."
At the same event today in Iowa, Newt was asked by Lillie Anderson, who is 76 and who is leaning toward Newt, what would he do to seal the deal with her and other voters.
Here's the audio of his answer.
At the same event today in Iowa, Newt was asked by Lillie Anderson, who is 76 and who is leaning toward Newt, what would he do to seal the deal with her and other voters.
Here's the audio of his answer.
(Video) Newt in South Carolina this past weekend
Here are some videos shot by a person attending Newt's event at Furman University Saturday:
Link to video.
Link to a video on Social Security.
Immigration video.
Video on Lincoln-Douglas debates.
What a general election between Newt and Obama would look like.
Link to video.
Link to a video on Social Security.
Immigration video.
Video on Lincoln-Douglas debates.
What a general election between Newt and Obama would look like.
Digging deeper into today's polls
The headlines from today's poll are, deservedly, that Newt is basically in a statistical tie for first place nationally and Iowa.
But there is plenty of other good news in the polls that suggests Newt has plenty of room to keep improving. His favorability, according to Public Policy Polling's poll, is by far the best in the GOP field:
Newt is seen favorably by Cain voters 73/21. They view Romney 33/55 and Perry 32/53.
Women view Newt favorably 67/21. Men view Newt 69/26. Newt gets the support of 31% of women surveyed and 26% of men.
Those darn women voters just cannot stand him!
Across age groups:
CNN's poll finds Newt's favorability with all adult Americans is 36/39, which has improved from 30/44 since June. Romney is the best but only at 39/35. Ron Paul is at 32/34.
They find Newt's favorability rating to be 61/21.
Newt's favorability with all adult males to be 39/39. With women, it's 33/39.
But there is plenty of other good news in the polls that suggests Newt has plenty of room to keep improving. His favorability, according to Public Policy Polling's poll, is by far the best in the GOP field:
Newt: 68 favorable/23 unfavorableRomney's favorability numbers is at a six-month low.
Cain: 57/31
Romney: 48/39
Bachmann: 40/41
Perry: 35/49
Newt is seen favorably by Cain voters 73/21. They view Romney 33/55 and Perry 32/53.
Women view Newt favorably 67/21. Men view Newt 69/26. Newt gets the support of 31% of women surveyed and 26% of men.
Those darn women voters just cannot stand him!
Across age groups:
18 to 29: 64-36%No other candidate is above water with all age groups.
30-45: 60-30%
46-65: 73-18%
65 and older: 69-23%
CNN's poll finds Newt's favorability with all adult Americans is 36/39, which has improved from 30/44 since June. Romney is the best but only at 39/35. Ron Paul is at 32/34.
They find Newt's favorability rating to be 61/21.
Newt's favorability with all adult males to be 39/39. With women, it's 33/39.
Recap of today's polling news
The great polling news continued today:
Public Policy Polling has the race looking like this:
Newt: 28%CNN:
Cain: 25%
Romney: 18%
Romney: 24%
Newt: 22%
Cain: 14%
Perry: 12%
Paul: 8%
Bachmann: 6%
Poll Position asked who people would vote for in a one-on-one matchup:
Newt 56/ Cain - 30%
Newt 57/Romney 24%
Cain: 20%
Gingrich: 19%
Romney: 14%
Sunday, November 13, 2011
“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney."
This was written before Newt's great polling news Friday -- so it understates his current position -- but it's still very good.
From the Washington Times:
From the Washington Times:
“I definitely think it ends up Newt versus [former Massachusetts Gov.] Mitt Romney at some point after the caucuses and primaries are under way,” said Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, a Republican who has endorsed the Georgian in her state’s key January caucuses.
“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney,” said Polk County, Iowa, GOP Chairman Daryl Kearney. “All national polls now have Newt with a solid hold on third place.”
“Evangelicals will definitely go for Newt if he is the nominee,” insisted Jim Garlow, credited with organizing the evangelicals in the drive to pass a same-sex marriage ban in California. “I used to hear them say, ‘He’s the smartest one in the room, but he has personal issues.’ I’ve seen an enormous shift in the past four or five months. They no longer talk about personal issues, but about intelligence and capability of being president.”On the primary calendar and the new RNC rules:
Mr. Garlow, senior pastor of the Skyline Wesleyan Church in San Diego, said if the nomination fight came down to Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich, “I’m guessing 80 [percent] to 90 percent of the evangelical vote in America would go to Newt. Romney’s Mormonism may be a factor, but the reason I hear most is they don’t trust Romney on abortion, marriage, economics and health care.”
“I think, no question, evangelicals will go for Newt if it comes down to him and Romney,” said Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Director Steve Scheffler, credited with organizing support for Pat Robertson’s stunning second-place finish in the 1988 Iowa caucuses. “Evangelicals are concerned with personal conduct, but most will judge people on their present conduct, and they have concluded Newt’s present lifestyle is exemplary.”
Under the Republican nominating calendar, no candidate can mathematically accumulate the 1,143 delegates required to win at the August presidential nominating convention until March 24 at the earliest, according to an analysis by The Washington Times.
Even that date is unlikely because before April 3, no state can have a winner-take-all primary or caucuses — they must all award delegates proportionately by congressional districts. Sweeping even one state’s delegates, much less the 30 contests scheduled through March 24, is practically impossible in a fully contested race.
"[A] lot of [South Carolina] Tea Party folks are migrating towards Newt."
From FoxNews.com:
The Republican presidential primary race is still fluid in the Palmetto State, but some in the grassroots are starting to get their hearts set on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Lin Bennett, chairwoman of the Charleston Republican Party, hasn't decided which candidate she'll support but observes, "a lot of state Tea Party folks are migrating towards Newt."
"That just tells me a lot of vetting is beginning to happen," says Bennett, pointing to the Tea Party activists' reputation for being tough and thorough judges of politicians' conservative records before deciding whom to back and whom to oppose.
A hundred miles north on the South Carolina coastline, a similar sentiment seems to be forming. Gingrich won an unusual straw poll held at the Rotelli's pizza and pasta restaurant in Myrtle Beach where an estimated 85 to 100 top local Republicans gathered to watch the CNBC debate Wednesday. Their opinion of who won the debate, as counted by an informal paper ballot, broke down as follows:
Newt 57%
Cain 25%
Romney 16%
Paul 2%
Bachmann, Huntsman, Perry, Santorum 0%
Participating in the straw poll were members of the Horry County Republican Party, Carolina Forest Republican Club, South Strand Republican Club, Northern Horry Republican Club, the Myrtle Beach Tea Party and Carolina Patriots - a combination of both establishment and grassroots conservatives. A second question on the ballot - who is your choice for the Republican candidate - produced the following result:
Newt 52%
Cain 36%
Paul 11%
Santorum 2%
Newt's "Iowa Relaunch"
Jason Clayworth writes:
Newt Gingrich is preparing an Iowa campaign relaunch of sorts, hiring up to six campaign staffers and opening two campaign headquarters this month: One in Des Moines and one in Iowa City.
He’ll additionally hit the campaign trail in Iowa for about 30 days between now and the Jan. 3 caucuses, R.C. Hammond, his national spokesman said today.
“There’s a priority. It’s Iowa,” Hammond said.
...
Gingrich will campaign in Iowa Monday through Wednesday and return again on Nov. 19th to participate in the Family Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum.
“Herman Cain is holding on in Iowa, but barely.”
Matt Towery, who does polls for InsiderAdvantage:
“Herman Cain is holding on in Iowa, but barely,” said InsiderAdvantage head Matt Towery. “He is still in the thick of it, but he is not doing well with the female vote.”
"The Tea Party Case for Newt Gingrich"
Kevin Tharp:
Conservatives want and need a candidate who can enunciate, persuade, and encourage the implementation of conservative principles. That takes some experience. But we need a candidate who can implement conservative executive policy and legislative initiatives well. Mr. Cain says he always evaluates the problem and then surrounds himself with the right people to get the job done. Do we have time for his evaluating process? Will he really know the best people for the job? Or will he bring in other people with no Washington experience? We don't have time for another president who has to come down a learning curve or needs on-the-job training.
There is a candidate who can do these things. He can eloquently expound on conservative principles. And he has already been a participant in the conservative revolution of the '80s and was the leader of the conservative revolution in the '90s. We need someone who can lead another conservative revolution now. And that man is Newt Gingrich. Is Newt perfect? No. Has he made compromises in the past? When you are working with a Democrat president and Senate, some compromise is going to be necessary. Does anyone really think Newt would implement cap and trade? Not likely. Plus the climate science is radically different now. Newt has a lifetime ACU rating of 90. That is conservative.
Newt "reminded me that real conservatism is anti-establishment"
From PeachPundit.com:
I had the opportunity to meet with Gingrich in Atlanta last week, and it is clear things have changed in the campaign. He is again surrounded with staff, and there is a certain buzz & energy about their business. New polls show Gingrich in third place, behind Cain and Romney, but ahead of Perry and the others. There also seemed to be the discipline that was so lacking under the former structure. Gingrich is once again poised to make a move in this race.
For this to happen, however, he must convince the voters currently backing Cain, Perry, and Bachmann that he can be the “anti-establishment” candidate. I asked him how someone who was once Speaker of the House becomes anti-establishment. He reminded me that real conservatism is anti-establishment, just as Reagan was the anti-establishment candidate when he ran, and further argued that Reagan was still anti-establishment when he left office. He believes the ideas in his new Contract With America are sufficiently anti-establishment, and that as voters learn about them, he’ll be able present a choice that is a break with the status quo.
Pictures from Newt in South Carolina on Saturday, including the opening of the HQ
Newt 2012's South Carolina State Director, Adam Waldeck, sent out two pictures of Newt talking with Furman University Students:
Link to picture.
Link to picture.
And then two of the crowd in Greenville for the opening of the South Carolina headquarters:
Link.
Picture.
Link to picture.
Link to picture.
And then two of the crowd in Greenville for the opening of the South Carolina headquarters:
Link.
Picture.
Mark Halperin of Time gives Newt the best grade from Saturday's CBS debate
Mark Halperin of Timegave Newt the best grade from tonight's debate:
Gingrich
Style: Confident, droll, pure Newt. Avoided taking on his rivals, even when asked explicitly to do so, instead cleverly and honestly praising them (following the current Republican rules of combat and looking like a grown-up as a bonus). But showed a tendency to overdo the jargon.
Substance: His best debate yet at playing the smartest person on the stage. Gave a sweeping, point-by-point answer on how to deal with Iran.
His worst moment: None stood out.
His best moment: Lit up the room with his tough talk on the war on terror.
The main thing: Still flaunting his knowledge rather than taking on Romney. Seems to feel that Newt being Newt is enough to win — given his recent success and upswing — and that isn't a crazy notion. But he has done nothing to shore up his vulnerabilities, leaving him wide open when and if Mitt needs to go negative on the former Speaker.
Grade: A-
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