Saturday, December 10, 2011

"We understand a load of crap when we see it."

That's what Linda Upmeyer, the Iowa chair of Newt 2012, said of Mitt Romney (or, more accurately, his surrogates') attacks on Newt.

Former Rep. Greg Ganske, who was elected to Congress in 1994 and served under Gingrich when he was speaker of the House, suggested Romney only wanted to use the caucuses to tear down Gingrich ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

"Maybe he doesn't care. Maybe he doesn't care about winning Iowa. He just wants to tear down the speaker here and then focus on New Hampshire," Ganske said.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida polls

CNN released a batch of four polls today at 4 PM Eastern:

Iowa: Newt 33, Romney 20.

New Hampshire: Romney 35, Gingrich 26.

South Carolina: Newt 43, Romney 20.

Florida: Newt 48, Romney 25.


In Iowa, Newt gets 35% support from women and 32% from men.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

North Carolina: Newt 51, Romney 14, Bachmann 8

Link to poll.

Newt's favorability: 73-13%.

15% list Newt as their second choice, second only to Romney at 18, meaning Newt still could move up.

Newt beats Romney by 47 points among very conservative voters and by 17 among moderates.

Newt's worst age group? 18-29. He's "only" at 63-32 with them.

Colorado poll: Newt 37, Romney 18, Bachmann 9

Link to poll.

Newt's favorability: 64-23. Among men: 67-23; with women, 60-24.

He's still the second choice of 18% of voters, just beating out Romney, which suggests Newt still has some room to grow in the polls.

Newt leads Romney 42-9 among tea party voters and 34-23 with non-tea partiers.

Favorability among age groups:
18-29: 53-18%
30-45: 54-28
46-65: 65-27
65 and older: 76-13
He gets the most support from each age group.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

CBS/NYT Iowa poll: Newt 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11

More results to come at 6:30 Eastern, says

Gallup National Poll: Newt 37, Romney 22, everyone else in single digits

Newt's 37% is the highest of any candidate in a Gallup Poll this year.

Conservatives: Newt 41, Romney 20, Paul 8.

Moderate/Liberal: Newt 28, Romney 26, Perry 9.

Tea Party: Newt 47, Romney 17, Bachmann 8.

Non-Tea Party: Romney 28, Newt 27, Paul 10.

This is what the polls have been showing lately: Newt cleans up among the Tea Party and conservative voters (a certain overlap between the two, of course) and more than holding his own among moderates.

Newt is uniting the party like no other candidate this election cycle -- others have won the conservative vote, Romney has held the moderate vote well -- but no one has been able to win both conservatives and moderates.

East: Newt 31, Romney 30.

Midwest: Newt 36, Romney 22.

South: Newt 42, Romney 15.

West: Newt 34, Romney 27.


18-34 age group: Newt 26, Romney 21, Paul 18.

35-54: Newt 35, Romney 22.

55+: Newt 46, Romney 23.

Good news for political nerds like myself: Gallup will start doing a daily national poll of the Republican Primary until a nominee is decided.

Gallup: Newt seen as "most acceptable" nominee to fellow Republicans

62% say Newt is acceptable. Mitt Romney, at 54%, is next.

Following a recent trend, Newt beats Romney soundly among tea party and conservative voters -- 82% of tea partiers view Newt as acceptable while only 58% say the same of Romney -- and is essentially tied with the former Massachusetts Governor among moderates.

As long as Newt can remain competitive among moderates, Newt will have no problem winning most contests.

This poll confirms another trend: Newt wins big among older voters. Among 18-54 year olds, Newt is seen as acceptable by 55% to Romney's 50%. Among 55+ voters, the numbers are 73-62.

ABC/Washington Post Iowa poll: Newt 33, Romney 18, Paul 18

Link to poll.

70% list Newt's "political experience" -- you know, those little things like welfare reform, 11 million new jobs, and four balanced budgets -- as a reason to support him.

With 31% to Romney's 20%, Newt is best seen in dealing with the economy.

Newt is also seen as dealing best with immigration. 38% list it as a "major reason to support"; 15% say it's a "major reason to oppose."

By a margin of 42-18, Newt beats Romney when likely voters are asked who has the best experience.

PPP Iowa survey: Newt 27, Paul 18, Romney 16

This confirms the two weekend polls in Iowa more or less.

Newt's favorability: 62-31%.

When asked who has the best chance to defeat Obama, 33% answered Newt and 22% answered Romney.

Public Policy Polling asked this question, which is basically a question on Newt's immigration position:
Do you think people who have immigrated to the United States illegally but have lived here 25 years, have paid taxes, and have obeyed the law should be deported or not?
Only 29% answered they should be deported. 44% said they should not. So it doesn't appear Newt's position is going to hurt him much.

Newt's not winning only because of his debate performance. He wins among those who have paid "a lot of attention," "some attention," and "not much attention at all" to the debates.

Newt is tied for first among those who are between 18 and 29 years old with Paul and Romney. Newt is second, 3 points behind Paul, among the 30-45 year old group. Newt leads with 46-65 year olds as well as 66 and up. Newt's best age group is the 66-and-up, winning 37% to Romney's 18%.

Newt is four points behind Romney and Paul among moderates, but blows them away among conservative and very conservative voters. Earlier "non-Romneys" were not able to hang that close to Romney among moderates.

There's a great deal of overlap, but the split between the tea party and non-tea party vote tells a similar story. Newt gets 35% of those inside the movement, Bachmann 23, Paul 14, Romney 4(!).

But whereas Cain, Perry, and Bachmann may have beat Romney by similar margins among tea party voters, Romney only beats Newt by one point among those who are not in the tea party. That margin was much wider with Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Marist Iowa poll: Newt 26, Romney 18, Paul 17

Newt leads among tea party voters, 32 to 16% for Paul and 13 for Cain.

Newt has the firmest support, even beating Ron Paul (a huge surprise to me).

Gingrich ties Paul on the question who most shares your values.

For those who say electability the most important issue for them, Newt wins 38 to Romney's 25.

By a margin of 36-26, Newt beat Romney on question of who is most experienced to govern.

Newt leads among both men and women.

Gingrich leads in all four regions of Iowa.

He wins both among those making under $75,000 and those making more.

He wins by 17% among Evangelicals.

Here's the link.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Former New Hampshire U.S. Senator Bob Smith endorses Newt

Smith said in his endorsement, “It is not enough to simply defeat President Obama. We must replace him with an inspirational, experienced, conservative leader, with the guts to challenge and change the establishment. Newt Gingrich is that leader.”
Here's the full story.

Newt 2012 has raised $5.5 million this quarter

"R.C. Hammond, a Gingrich spokesman, said the campaign has grown to 10 staff members in South Carolina, eight in New Hampshire, six in Iowa and two in Florida. By comparison, Mr. Romney has five staff members in Iowa, 10 in New Hampshire, and three in South Carolina," writes the Wall Street Journal.

And: “I watched him during the debates, and I think he’s the real deal,” said Richard Bailey, an aerospace analyst who traveled from San Diego to help.

I met Richard this weekend. He's very bright and a strong Newt supporter. He, like me, plans to make a couple of more trips before caucuses on January 3rd.

Des Moines-Register poll: Newt 25, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 8, Cain 8

The poll was (obviously) done before Herman Cain announced he was suspending his campaign, but he was clearly on the downside already.

Where do those voters go? Newt. Every poll says that. The only question is how many. My guess is the number is enough to effectively put Newt at 30%.

18% of all voters said Newt was their second choice, suggesting that as other campaigns fall off he can pick up even more ground.

We still need to keep pushing, but currently Newt is the clear frontrunner nationally, in Iowa, in South Carolina, and in Florida. He's running a close second in New Hampshire.

The trick now is to make sure our voters get to the polls and caucus sites.

Many have noted that this was about the time that Mike Huckabee shot ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa four years ago.
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