Can you spot the outlier in the recent Iowa polls?

A lot of attention was paid to the Public Policy Polling poll released Tuesday that showed Iowa tightening considerably, with Newt at 22 and Ron Paul at 21.

However, the media -- so willing to jump on any poll that shows Newt slipping -- ignores that this poll appears to be an outlier at this moment.

Another poll was released Tuesday afternoon that showed Newt at 27 and Paul at 17. And surprise, that poll received a tiny fraction of the coverage the PPP one did.

An analysis by Neil Stevens of RedState.com gives a good explanation on why PPP -- a very reliable polling firm -- is likely way off on this poll. They are including independents and Democrats in their poll.

Stevens:

Every time, and I mean every time, I bring up the fact that the Iowa Caucuses are closed [meaning only Republicans can vote in the GOP Caucuses], the reply is that “You can register up to the day of the caucuses to participate.” That’s true. But if Paul is not able to motivate his supporters to register, and if his people aren’t actually committed to caucus for Paul, then his support is soft, and isn’t going to show up.

So while these independents and Democrats are telling a pollster they would support Paul, they have to be considered pretty unlikely to turn out on January 3rd and vote for Paul.

What does the poll look like if only Republicans are included?

Newt 25. Paul 17.

Remember what the other Iowa poll from Tuesday looked like: Newt 27. Paul 17. Looks kinda similar, doesn't it?

And the average of Iowa polls from the past week: Newt 29, Romney 17, Paul 16.

So even though it's inconvenient for the media -- which wants to report about Newt falling more than anything -- the Public Policy Polling survey looks way out of whack with other Iowa polls.

InsiderAdvantage Florida poll and NYT/CBS National poll

The two most recent polls (as far as i know) have been a poll of just Florida by InsiderAdvantage and a national poll by The New York Times and CBS.

The Florida results, again taken before the latest debate, showed Newt in third place. 21.1% of the respondents were undecided.

The NYT/CBS poll, which was partially conducted before the debate as well as after, show Newt tied for third with Michelle Bachmann, with 22% undecided.

The Florida poll did not ask (or at least the results are not on the above link), but the national poll asked how committed those asked were to their candidate of choice. What the numbers show is that the support for both Romney and Perry is anything but firm, with Perry having an edge over the former Massachusetts Governor. But combined with the undecideds totaling about a a fifth of the electorate, there is clearly plenty of room for Newt to gain should he and his campaign keep the momentum going. (That also does not the supporters of candidates who may end up dropping out of the race.)

What's clear from these two polls and others from the past week: Newt is moving up, either tied or leading Bachmann in each. And that while Perry and Romney are leading at this moment -- just as Bachmann was a month ago and Donald Trump was five months ago -- they are not locked in by any means.

And of course, with the better poll numbers, more people will step forward to give money to Newt 2012 or give their time. Which, in turn, will drive up the numbers. Which will lead to more contributions and volunteers. Which...well, you get the idea.

Matt Towery: Gingrich "could easily" rebound should he win June 13 debate

Matt Towery, a former Gingrich staffer and now CEO of InsiderAdvantage, writes that while Newt had a shaky rollout, "if he wins the first debate later this month, his candidacy could easily be resurrected."

It's an important point, because while Newt has suffered some bad press, he is still at the top of polls, including the most important one: Iowa. (For my post earlier today about the latest Iowa poll, click here.)

Four years ago, John McCain was cratering in the polls and on the verge of running out of campaign money. But through his performances in town halls and debates, he rebounded to win the nomination.

Newt is nowhere near the low that McCain had. A great debate performance, followed by holding numerous events in the early states -- especially Iowa -- and Newt will rise in the polls.