U.S. News & World Report: Newt "Could Be the New 'Comeback Kid"

Paul Bedard of the magazine writes:

Either way, the big-thinking Republican, his supporters, and presidential political experts sense that Gingrich, left for dead by the political class weeks ago when his staff abruptly quit and stories surfaced about his big-dollar Tiffany's account, is on the way back. The reason for the emerging Newt 2.0? His effective performance in the last debate that inspired supporters to boost online donations after he assailed the deficit "super committee" while spelling out detailed solutions to fixing the economy.

"He moved out of the irrelevant category and now he has some standing," says a GOP analyst. "His strengths are his ideas and translating them at a debate. Given that there are lots more debates, he has a chance to win."

The Gingrich surge is seen in some polls. In Missouri and Louisiana, for example, he is fourth behind Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rep. Michele Bachmann.

"The general response to the campaign has gone up significantly since [the Iowa debate]," says Gingrich. "There's been somewhat of an uptick in polling numbers, not gigantic yet, but starting us back on the road to building a unique case. What I'm trying to do is show leadership now, show how you could actually solve problems and do it in a way that is totally compatible with conservative values but is also common sense and in some ways bipartisan," adds the Georgian.

"A number of people say that I'm just different and that they are glad to see somebody who isn't just articulating slogans without trying to develop solutions and my hope is that will grow," says Gingrich.

He feels he can come back and take the GOP nomination because the economy is so bad that voters more than ever are looking for new ideas.

Some suggest that his effort is similar to Sen. John McCain who in 2008 staged a comeback after being written off. Gingrich rejects that model. "I'm actually closer to [Barry] Goldwater and [Ronald] Reagan," he says. "They were arousing new groups, new organizations, using new issues and doing it new ways and it took a while to build momentum."

Also in the article, when asked about being a "Comeback Kid," Newt replied: ""Well, I may be that, but I may be more like a comeback grandfather."

Newt's campaign is promoting the fact that there will be five public discussions of issues in September -- four debates and Jim DeMint's Presidential Forum next weekend in South Carolina -- and those will shine light on the fact that Newt is the one with the real solutions to renew America.

Matt Towery: Gingrich "could easily" rebound should he win June 13 debate

Matt Towery, a former Gingrich staffer and now CEO of InsiderAdvantage, writes that while Newt had a shaky rollout, "if he wins the first debate later this month, his candidacy could easily be resurrected."

It's an important point, because while Newt has suffered some bad press, he is still at the top of polls, including the most important one: Iowa. (For my post earlier today about the latest Iowa poll, click here.)

Four years ago, John McCain was cratering in the polls and on the verge of running out of campaign money. But through his performances in town halls and debates, he rebounded to win the nomination.

Newt is nowhere near the low that McCain had. A great debate performance, followed by holding numerous events in the early states -- especially Iowa -- and Newt will rise in the polls.

2012 polls

It needs to be said at the beginning that relying on polls two years before the Iowa caucuses is not the best thing to do. However, they do serve some purpose, and as such, a quick overview can reveal some things.One of the knocks against running Gingrich is his divisiveness. While that was true when he stepped down as Speaker of the House, he has done a very good job in recent years of rehabbing his image. Some of those events -- when he met with Hillary Clinton over health information technology, Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry on the climate, and most recently, Al Sharpton and President Obama on education -- have drawn ire from many conservatives.Their criticism has been largely silly, acting as if Gingrich has advocated for large-scale surrender of principles. All is he has done is tried to open a dialogue -- and he is confident his ideas will beat out those of the liberals he has met with. It was a message he spoke forcefully at CPAC.

Combined with that, as well as his focus on actual ideas and solutions, his popularity has been rising. In fact, in a June 2009 poll -- the last such poll I can find -- his popularity number with independents is split 37-38%. Being able to hold his own with that bloc is vital, of course, to any chance of victory. And chances are, when exposed to more of Newt's ideas, the 29% undecided will break more for him, handing him a win among unaffilated voters.

One of the interesting things the poll shows is that those under 30 are much more undecided than those above that age. Of course, much of that is because the older crowd remembers his days as Speaker, when he was target number one of the Clinton White House and liberal groups. The more people focus on the issues and reality, not the media spin and half-truths, the better it is for Newt.

Gingrich's standing in polls against President Obama have been improving, better than than the other top Republican contenders. A Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm, survey from April 2009 showed Obama winning, 52-39%. But just two months later, the lead was down to 49-41% and Newt's numbers were better than Mike Huckabee (50-43) or Sarah Palin (52-40) and very close to Mitt Romney (48-40).

The next poll that pitted Obama and Gingrich was one from Clarus. It had Obama winning 48-36, right in the middle of the pack of GOP candidates. Romney did much better than every other Republican in the poll, trailing just by four points. Of course, that could be an outlier, or just an obvious result of having spent all of 2007 and two months in 2008 running for President already. His name identification is high.

President of Clarus Ron Faucheux said, "Gingrich improved his standing since the August poll when he was trailing Obama by 18 points. He's narrowed the gap to 12 points. Relative to Obama, Huckabee and Palin experienced only minimal improvement since August."

That is a pretty obvious sign that Gingrich is doing something that Huckabee and Palin are failing at. When combined with the results of Frank Luntz's focus groups that showed people warmed very much to Gingrich after actually his policy proposals, it would seem to suggest that over the course of a months-long campaign, Newt would only rise in the polls, while others would stagnate or fall.

Clarus also confirmed the findings of many polls that the former Speaker is at the top of the list of Republican spokesman, trailing only 2008 GOP Presidential nominee John McCain and the man who was second to McCain when he dropped out, Romney, among Republican voters. A Gallup poll from May 2009, for example, found Gingrich tied with Rush Limbaugh for first.