Dennis Hastert was to Newt as Bush 41 was to Reagan

Newt was Speaker of the House from January 1995 until December 1998. Simple enough, right?

Apparently not.

One of the most bizarre criticisms of Newt I encounter online is when people are either too lazy to check the dates or are trying to deceive people by blaming Newt for things that happened when he was out of Congress.

The most common is that Newt did not live up to his promise to shrink government. They seemingly conflate Newt and his successor as Speaker, Dennis Hastert.

Fact: Federal spending under Newt's Speakership fell to its' lowest annual increase since Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s.

To confuse Gingrich and Hastert is as wrong as confusing Ronald Reagan and his successor, George H.W. Bush. Imagine someone criticizing Reagan, not Bush, for breaking his no new taxes pledge. That is the same thing people are doing by blaming Newt for excessive spending under Hastert.

If people look at Newt's four years as Speaker -- and only those four years -- they will see four of the most conservative governing years of the 20th Century. Reforming entitlements, cutting taxes, building up the military, balancing the budget, and several other policy shifts to the right.

With a Democrat President no less.

Don't blame Newt for hijacking the Gingrich Revolution of 1994 anymore than you would blame Ronald Reagan for hijacking the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

The men who succeeded them are the real culprits in interrupting the forward march of conservatism.

Former Representative Robert Walker: Newt "an agent of change"

Excerpts from The Washington Times:

Such leadership is a Gingrich legacy. In 1995, the idea of balancing the federal budget was not only a pipe dream but was the subject of ridicule in sophisticated Washington circles. President Clinton’s budgets showed deficits of hundreds of billions of dollars as far out as the eye could see. It was Newt’s strategy and leadership as speaker of the House that not only changed the terms of the debate that year, but within three years produced real balanced budgets.

When Newt tried to reform the welfare system, Mr. Clinton vetoed those efforts on two occasions. But the persistence of a real leader kept the pressure on, and Newt produced one of the most significant changes in government policy in the latter part of the 20th century - welfare reform.

The American military often holds exercises in which the troops simulate real national emergency situations. On many occasions, they have asked Newt to take the role of president in those exercises. One of the most respected institutions in America, our armed forces, has recognized the capability of this leader for good judgment.

...

A Gingrich presidency holds the promise of real change. For some, that phrase has been a political tool for maintaining the status quo or moving us further down the road toward European-style socialism. Change under a Gingrich White House would be based on values first articulated by our forefathers -- individual liberty, entrepreneurial enterprise, devolved government power and spiritual fulfillment.

Fiscal discipline, good jobs, a government that works, responsible global leadership, world-renowned science and technology, and winning the future would all be featured in a Gingrich administration.

With Newt, the concept of change in the face of adversity is not just a political promise; it is the reality of his entire career. When choosing a president, the American people may want to look at the mess inexperience has produced and decide that a new generation of leadership requires someone who bears the scars of winning in an arena that is tough and unforgiving. Winning the future will require the kind of courage in the public arena that Newt Gingrich has demonstrated before and once again has stepped forward to provide.

Examining Bob McDonnell's claim that Newt is "most important Republican" besides Reagan in last 50 years (hint: he's right).

Virginia Governor and possible 2012 Vice Presidential pick Bob McDonnell had this exchange the other day:

New York Times: Other than Reagan, the most significant Republican in the last half-century.

McDonnell: Newt Gingrich. That Contract with America really changed the way Republicans approached government -- positive, problem solving, solutions and then getting things done.

I think that was a phenomenal turnaround.

Of course, McDonnell is not alone in that view. Lee Edwards -- who worked on Barry Goldwater's campaign, has been a long-time scholar at the Heritage Foundation, and is perhaps the preeminent historian of the conservative movement -- also says that.

The Republicans have had other Presidents in that time span -- Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush -- but none led to as many conservative policy victories as Newt nor did they help bring a political realignment along.

He set out when he was first elected to Congress in 1979 to help bring down the Democrat House majority that had become entrenched and corrupt. Edwards recalls that Newt was all but called insane for arguing Republicans could capture the House. Having done what many thought impossible, Newt followed that up with balancing the budget four years in a row -- while enacting tax cuts and rebuilding our military at the same time -- and reforming welfare.

While being the most influential Republican besides Ronald Reagan in the last half century is not reason alone to be the next GOP Presidential nominee, it is also not to be diminished. Roll Call put it this way:

In noting Gingrich’s accomplishments as a Member, [Gingrich spokesman] Tyler telegraphed what could be a campaign messaging strategy to contrast the former Speaker’s record of concrete achievement at the federal level versus his opponents’ 'rhetoric' of as-yet-unfulfilled promises.

Every Republican running for the White House will talk of balancing the federal budget but only one actually has. And if Newt reminds people of his accomplishments -- almost half of the electorate, either due to being too young in the 90s or other reasons, is not even aware Newt was Speaker -- he will get a chance to balance it again. This time at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.

Matt Towery: Poll shows Newt shoots to top spot when voters are reminded of his accomplishments as Speaker

In his article a week ago, Matt Towery -- who served as chairman of Newt's political organization for much of the 90s and who has known the former Speaker for years -- wrote an article about Newt's chances.

The strengths of a Gingrich campaign, according to Towery:

The upside is the polling data he is armed with. It shows that once the public is reminded of his accomplishments when he was speaker of the House, Gingrich soars from either second or third to first among the choices of Republican voters nationwide for the GOP nomination.

These voters are impressed when they are reminded that Speaker Gingrich forced Bill Clinton into consecutive balanced budgets, passed welfare reform and left office with the nation's entire deficit at under $30 billion dollars.

The Wall Street Journal got it right earlier this week. It said that Gingrich's real campaign, when it begins later this spring, will emphasize these signal accomplishments.

Another upside for Gingrich is that he has a huge list of names and devotees in data created through years of presence on the Web. His campaign likely will be the only one among leading Republican presidential hopefuls that will rival Barrack Obama's for its expertise and accomplishments in high-tech social networking and fundraising.

On one of the frequent attacks on Gingrich:

The story is simply not true that Newt Gingrich served his first wife with divorce papers, or had a heated argument about a divorce, while she was ill and in a hospital.

How do I know? Because the day that alleged event happened -- and every other day during that time -- I was riding in a car with him. On that day, we were working on debate preparation. Besides, polling suggests that most voters don't care about Gingrich's alleged past transgressions.

Newt's daughter from that marriage, Jackie, "considered them [the hospital bed allegations and other attacks] bogus and unfair." She appeared in a 1992 television advertisement to refute the charges.

Gingrich: "Madison taught us this is life and death."

A couple of the takeaway lines from Newt's radio interview with CNBC host Larry Kudlow:

The whole team better be on the same side the day after the nomination in order to beat Obama. Madison taught us this is life and death.

Of criticism that he [Newt] is just an ideas guy:

There are a fair number of actual things there that weren't just ideas but were turned into national policies.

The talking up of Newt's accomplishments as Speaker will be a consistent theme -- both to talk up Newt's ability to turn things around and to refute charges that he is just an "ideas guy."

Quick Hits

Newt's spokesman, Rick Tyler:

In noting Gingrich’s accomplishments as a Member, Tyler telegraphed what could be a campaign messaging strategy to contrast the former Speaker’s record of concrete achievement at the federal level versus his opponents’ 'rhetoric' of as-yet-unfulfilled promises.

'I imagine those are the same people who thought balancing the budget was just an idea; I imagine those are the same people who thought welfare reform was just an idea,' Tyler said, in response to critics who complimented Gingrich’s contribution to Republican policy but otherwise consider him to be a political liability to the GOP.

Palm Beach Post:

'If…I end up running we will create a channel called Learning From America and everyday, with volunteers carrying cameras, we will try to find at least three places where everyday Americans are doing smart things,' Gingrich said.

'And every night we will file on the Internet three more examples of why every American should be an optimist, every American should be hopeful and every American can believe there’s a better future. I have no interest in running a 30-second attack ad that is petty, trivial, negative and destructive. I have every interest in a national dialogue.'

Matt Lewis:

A new book about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich could provide a last-minute boost to his chances heading into the primaries if he seeks the GOP nomination for president.

The book, "Citizen Newt," is being authored by the respected Reagan biographer Craig Shirley (who has been interviewing Gingrich one day a week) and is set to land on bookshelves just one month before the Iowa caucuses next January.

Multiple sources: Newt will announce this week; ABC says he will "tout" his time as Speaker

ABC was the first, then National Journal confirmed the news: Gingrich will announce this week that he will open an exploratory committee.

ABC:

His advisors say a Gingrich campaign would tout his accomplishments as Speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999 -- most importantly under his speakership the budget wasn't just balanced but generated more than $400 billion in surpluses. Advisors say this sets him apart from the field. He won't just talk about the federal debt, but can take credit as the only candidate with a record of dealing with it effectively. He also oversaw comprehensive welfare reform, tax cuts and a reduction in the growth of government spending.

Gingrich versus Obama on "Winning the Future"

In 2005, Newt wrote Winning the Future: A 21st Century Contract with America, wherein he laid out his solutions on everything from health care to education to preserving our culture.

In last night's State of the Union, President Obama's theme was "winning the future."

Gingrich noted this in his newsletter this week, under the headline: "Winning the Future...couldn’t have said it better myself!"

He continues:

I started with my first State of the Union as Speaker when I sat behind President Clinton because there has been a lot of speculation about whether President Obama will move to the center as President Clinton did after the 1994 Republican revolution.

Of course, President Clinton’s flight to the center is credited for saving his presidency after a devastating defeat just two years into his first term.

So after an even greater Republican landslide in 2010, and as President Obama eyes a tough reelection with an economy in much worse shape, the question is whether President Obama will make a similar move to the center and try to co-opt much of the Republican agenda as his own.

Well, it certainly felt like "déjà vu all over again" this weekend when people started emailing me asking how I felt about the President picking the theme winning the future" for his State of the Union address.

I wrote a book in 2005 called Winning the Future: A 21st Century Contract with America.

Was President Obama setting the stage to adopt elements of my 21st Century Contract with America, just as President Clinton embraced the original Contract with America?

He compares and contrasts his vision with the President's:

What we heard last night did echo some themes from Winning the Future.

The basic plot was expressed – the need to compete with China and India, reform our tax code, stand up for human rights across the globe, defeat the terrorists, solve the challenge of illegal immigration, and improve math and science learning.

But it was clear that when it came down to hard policy proposals (with a few exceptions), the President’s vision was still big government dressed up in moderate clothing.

The most obvious example was in the President’s disingenuous suggestion of a 5 year discretionary spending freeze as a way to deal with our huge deficit. This after two years of a spending binge unlike this country has ever seen.

Tying in Obama's reference to Sputnik and his tax plan, Gingrich writes, "The only proposals we heard from President Obama to cut taxes were on the condition that other taxes were raised. Reshuffling our corporate tax code is not going to create jobs." He then quotes JFK from 1962, who said:

Our true choice is not between tax reduction, on the one hand, and the avoidance of large Federal deficits on the other. It is increasingly clear that no matter what party is in power, so long as our national security needs keep rising, an economy hampered by restrictive tax rates will never produce enough revenues to balance our budget just as it will never produce enough jobs or enough profits... In short, it is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now.

On the comparisons between early 1995 and today:

This brings us back to my first State of the Union as Speaker in 1995.

It is important to remember that President Clinton did not immediately move to the center. His famous declaration that "the era of big government is over" did not occur in the 1995 State of the Union. It was in 1996.

In fact, President Clinton fought us for months. He vetoed welfare reform twice. It wasn’t until he realized that he would lose reelection that he eventually relented, signed welfare reform, and adopted many other items in the Contract with America, including balancing the budget, tax cuts, and entitlement reform.

We didn’t do everything perfectly during our battles with President Clinton, but we won on the issues by being principled and tough – a lesson House Republicans should keep in mind in the days ahead....

If Republicans calmly explain to the American people why a simple freeze won’t do the job, the vast majority of Americans will immediately understand and side with them in their desire to oppose big government spending and restore limited government.

We can win on the issues today like we did in 1995.

Remember the 1996 Republicans were the first reelected House GOP majority since 1928. If you win for the first time in 68 years you are doing something right. Standing by our principles and standing up to a liberal President were the keys to that success.

Newt's advisers: Tout your time as Speaker

Writing on usnews.com, Paul Bedard reports that "Newt Gingrich’s advisers are telling him that if he decides to run for the presidency, he needs play up his four years as speaker when many bipartisan policies were put into place."

One such adviser is quoted as saying: “Newt can say he has been there, done that on the economy and social issues, and then he can pivot and say how he’ll fix the current problems."

"Some think that his successes as speaker would top those of many two-term governors, like Indiana’s Mitch Daniels, because Gingrich worked on a national stage where victories are harder to score and have greater impact," writes Bedard.

I have noticed Newt talking up his time as Speaker of the House a lot -- more than he has in the past in my opinion -- during speeches, in his newsletters, and in radio interviews.