How might the field look like if Cain drops off?

In my earlier post, I quoted Public Policy Polling as to why they feel that Newt will be the main beneficiary if Herman Cain -- for any number of reasons -- drops in the polls.

The reasons are: Newt is popular with Cain's voters (he's the second choice of a plurality of Cain supporters) and Perry is simply not very popular with Republican voters right now, with more Republicans viewing it unfavorably than favorably in several polls.

So updating my thought experiment from yesterday, I will take a shot at seeing what the polls might look like if Cain falls off. In the North Carolina poll from today, 46% of Cain's supporters say they are firmly with him. If the bottom really falls out of his campaign, even those people would leave, but let's just give him the benefit of the doubt. That means 54% -- 16.2% -- would leave him. Newt's the second choice of 29% of those, which means he would see a boost of about 4.7%. So his new total would be 26.7%.

Doing the same for the rest of the field in North Carolina:

Newt: 26.7%
Romney: 21.5%
Cain: 13.8%
Perry: 12.4%
Bachmann: 5.4%

That doesn't factor in the undecideds -- which figure to break for Newt as well, based on his favorability numbers and other positives for Newt.

In Maine, only 25% of Cain's supporters are strongly committed to him. Dividing up Cain's supporters gives these results:

Romney: 27.7%
Newt: 23.7%
Cain: 7.3%
Perry: 7.3%

Doing static analysis like this is not perfect, of course, but it gives a decent look at the field might look.

Newt at 22% in North Carolina and 18% in Maine, says Public Policy Polling

North Carolina:

Cain -- 30%
Gingrich -- 22%
Romney -- 19%
Perry -- 10%
Bachmann -- 4%
Paul -- 4%
Santorum -- 2%
Huntsman -- 2%

Maine:

Cain -- 29%
Romney -- 24%
Gingrich -- 18%
Bachmann --5%
Paul -- 5%
Perry -- 4%
Santorum - 2%
Huntsman -- 1%
Johnson -- 1%

PPP writes: "[T]here's plenty of reason to think that there will indeed be a Cain collapse. Cain may have led in these states over the weekend, but his support continues to be pretty soft. Only 46% of Cain's supporters in North Carolina and a paltry 25% in Maine said they were strongly committed to voting for him. A lot of Cain's supporters were already highly susceptible to abandoning him -- whether the recent allegations cause them to do so is still anybody's guess."

They also write: "It's no surprise that Gingrich would be the beneficiary of a Cain collapse, because Tea Party voters have been the foundation of Cain's surge and Newt polled second with that group of GOP loyalists on both of our polls over the weekend."

In North Carolina, Newt's favorability with Tea Party voters is 83/14. Romney is just 49/42, with Perry at 48/42.

In Maine, Newt is seen favorably by Tea Party members 75/19. Romney is at 53/36, and Perry is 35/47.

On Perry, PPP writes:

Even more problematic for him than his low level of support is how unpopular he's become with GOP voters -- in Maine his favorability is 34/47 and in North Carolina it's 39/41. He's not going to get back into the race just because other candidates falter -- his image has been hurt too much for that to be the case. He's really going to have to redefine himself in the eyes of the voters to get it turned around.

Newt had similar favorability numbers over the summer -- but by being great in the debates, laying out bold solutions, and not attacking other candidates, his favorability numbers have gone way up.

Perry, on the other hand, does not figure to start doing too great at debates (he may improve, but I doubt he does by too much), has just a fraction of Newt's solutions, and seems intent on attacking Romney and Cain. That's not a recipe to improve how he is viewed.

I'll do another post on the PPP surveys later.

Public Policy Polling: Newt is the second choice among Cain supporters

PPP teased their Maine and North Carolina polls today on Twitter. The takeaway: "Both our weekend polls suggest Newt would benefit from Cain implosion." (Another takeaway: Perry is under water -- more Republicans view him unfavorably than favorably -- in both states.)

In Maine, Cain's supporters second choice is: "Gingrich 26, Romney 17, Perry 15."

In North Carolina, they are: "Gingrich 29, Romney 16, Perry 15, Bachmann 10, Paul 8."

They didn't say what Cain's numbers in Maine will be, but in North Carolina, he is (was anyway) at 30%.

Based on previous polls, about 70% of Cain's supporters are not strongly committed to him. Let's say all 70% leave Cain, and they divide up just as PPP's numbers suggest.

That alone would give Newt a six point boost. To show what I mean, let's use the North Carolina poll from early October. (Cain was at 27 then, so we can guess that Newt is at about the same level, and he was at 17.)

If the 70% who are soft commits for Cain leave and divide up as the current poll says they would, here is what the rest of the field would look like in North Carolina (and remember, this is purely hypothetical):

Newt: 23%
Romney: 20%
Perry: 18%
Cain: 9%
Bachmann: 8%

Now, who knows how it might actually work. Cain might not collapse -- but I suspect he will, if not for the allegations in the Politico story (which are an unknown, in terms of both substance and polling impact at this moment) then for his abortion comments or his lack of knowledge on foreign policy and other issues.

His supporters might leave him at even greater numbers if his campaign looks like a lost cause and they decide their main goal is to stop from nominating the moderate/liberal Republican Romney. Bachmann's supporters might do the same, as her campaign is having trouble in several areas.

I'll stop with hypotheticals and fortune telling. But I hope it gave a general idea on how the race would look if that scenario occurred.

When the full polls are released (probably tomorrow), I'll post them and an analysis here.