Friday, November 18, 2011

New Hampshire poll: Romney 29, Newt 27

This poll is especially noteworthy because, as the paper that sponsored the poll writes, it "is the first time any of NH Journal’s polls have shown any candidate even close to Romney."

So while many in the media keeps prattling on about how Newt is just the latest anti-Romney, this poll is yet another piece of evidence that Newt's appeal is greater than that of Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

From the story:
When asked why people felt Gingrich was moving up in the polls, 44% of respondents cited his depth of knowledge on the issues. Ten percent referred to his strong debate performances while another 6% said they liked that he was challenging the media in those debates. Ten percent referenced his past experience as Speaker of the House.

A close look at the data shows Gingrich is actually leading Romney among certain important subgroups of the electorate. Among self-identified conservative voters, Gingrich beats Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified tea party voters, he leads Romney 38%-21%.
The one quibble I have with the story: they say Romney remains "the most popular candidate in the field." They back that up by writing that Romney's favorability rating is 60/32.

Newt's? 59/31.

That is, obviously, a tie statistically, and it would have been more accurate to say that Newt has matched Romney's popularity.

New Hampshire has long been written off to Romney. The key for Newt, or another candidate to get the nomination, was always to win Iowa, don't get blown out in the Granite State, and win South Carolina. Now, Newt could win Iowa -- where he has a 13-point lead, according to Rasmussen. Then follow that up with a close second in New Hampshire. South Carolina would be a sort of tie-breaker, and Newt -- because of a superior ground game as well as better appeal to the conservative electorate -- has the advantage there.

If Newt was to win New Hampshire after Iowa, Romney would likely be finished right then.

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