Newt is getting good press in the early states. Is Romney's strategy of de-emphasizing the early states a fatal mistake?

Responding to some negative national stories being written about Newt, Matt Lewis of the Daily Caller reminds people that "[t]here won’t be a national primary election, but rather, a series of state elections." Which you would think that no one would need reminding of that after 2008 -- when Barack Obama was far behind in national polls even as he won Iowa in January. Only after Iowa did he become Hillary Clinton's equal in national polls. Plus, Newt is in much, much better shape nationally than Obama was at this point.

Lewis links to positive local news reports from Iowa, New Hampshire, Georgia, Massachusetts, Texas, North Carolina. (Yesterday, I quoted an article that South Carolina is not seeing much of the candidates yet.)

One from his speech in Salem, Massachusetts:

“From someone who usually but not always votes Democrat, I’ve never agreed with a Republican more than I have tonight,” said one man who stepped up to the microphone during the brief question and answer period at the end of the speech.

One from New Hampshire is especially encouraging due to the retail style of politics so important in that state as well as Iowa:

Francesca Marconi Fernald, owner of Geno’s, said Gingrich was approachable and easy to talk to about everything from small business to international issues.

“He listens to what you’re saying and he looks you in the eye when he talks to you,” she said.

Business matriarch and former Portsmouth city councilor and deputy mayor Evelyn Marconi was pleased to see Gingrich.

“I was impressed with him and I always have been,” she said.

The reason that only Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (and, to a lesser extent, Nevada) matter at this point is that they are the only states in which most voters are paying close attention right now. And that's because those states will be casting meaningful votes -- votes that will propel the winners onward and kill the campaigns of the losers -- within nine months. Most other states will not be casting a meaningful vote until November 2012 due to their primaries being held after -- in all likelihood -- the nomination is secure.

This fact is why Mitt Romney's strategy of while not entirely sitting out the early contests, certainly not going all in on them, could be disastrous for the former Massachusetts governor. Romney has reportedly calculated that, much as in 2008, he will struggle in Iowa and South Carolina -- and so he hopes to build a large enough war chest to compete in the contests after the first four, when the other candidates could -- could -- be cash-strapped.

While he may not have a choice -- it is unlikely, no matter how much money and time he spends, that he will win either Iowa or South Carolina -- this strategy does not have much of a precedent of working. Rudy Giuliani tried this to some extent, using Florida as a firewall -- which is also a state Romney is banking on -- but the former New York City mayor was out of the news due to lackluster performances, and his lead in the Sunshine State evaporated.

Romney's camp points to Barack Obama winning the Democrat nomination in 2008 on the back of later wins in small states, piling up the delegates in Montana and similar states. This look at Obama's campaign misses one very important thing: Obama, above all, put everything into the first early contests.

Obama won Iowa, placed second in New Hampshire (after being way up in the polls after Iowa), and dominated in South Carolina. From there, he was able to use the money advantage he had over Clinton -- as well as his supporters in small states organizing on their own -- to pile up delegates in the later states. If he had ignored two of the first three, his candidacy would have been dead in the water.

If Romney is old news after South Carolina, his firewalls of Nevada and Florida may not be so sturdy, and money and volunteer offers may dry up. Much has been made of Romney, unlike any other candidate, being able to write himself a $50 million check. The importance of that, however, is unknown as he did just that in 2008 -- and it did little good for him.

Romney is banking on chaos -- say Gingrich and Barbour splitting Iowa and South Carolina with neither doing very well in New Hampshire, which is a must win for Romney. And a close win would likely not be enough; it would have to be overwhelming.

Like I said, Romney may not have another choice, but having to bank on winning the nomination while not focusing all of his energy on the early states is not a good position to be in.

Local news segment about Newt's appearance in Salem, MA. Also, he will speak at National Catholic Prayer Breakfast next month.

From NECN:


Matt Lewis writes:

On April 27, more than 1,500 Catholics are expected to gather for the 7th Annual National Catholic Prayer Breakfast (NCPB) in Washington, D.C.

The breakfast’s theme will be, “Celebrating the Beautification of John Paul the Great” and the keynote address will be given by His Excellency Bishop William Lori, of the Diocese of Bridgeport, who serves as the Supreme Chaplain of the Knights of Columbus. There will also be a special guest speaker, Newt Gingrich.

...

Why could this matter? The Catholic vote is arguably the swing vote in a general election. Moreover, this might signal that Gingrich has the potential to tap into some national Catholic money — money that went to Mitt Romney, a Mormon, last time around (this was a source of frustration for then-Sen. Sam Brownback, a Catholic convert).

What is more, Leonard Leo, though not a household name, is one of the most important behind-the-scenes power brokers in the conservative movement. If he should support Gingrich (and it’s premature to speculate that this means he will) -- it would be a clear signal that Gingrich’s campaign wasn’t merely a side show -- but that it was gaining real traction among serious national conservative leaders.

Gingrich, who is exploring a run for president, converted to Catholicism in 2009. He is also speaking at an evangelical school, Liberty University, in April.

Rick Perry's Campaign Manager and top Political Consultant on Newt's team

From the Statesman:

Rob Johnson, who managed Gov. Rick Perry’s 2010 re-election campaign, has signed on with Newt Gingrich as Gingrich explores whether to run for president.

Johnson, 36, will be a senior political adviser for Gingrich, who for months has been nearing a presidential bid.

...

He’s not the only member of Perry’s circle who is mixing in with Gingrich’s. Dave Carney, the New Hampshire-based operative who is Perry’s top political consultant, is helping the Gingrich team arrange events in the Granite State.

"The potential opportunity to run a top-tier presidential campaign is an acknowledgment of Rob’s extensive experience and leadership in putting together winning campaigns," Perry said in a statement.

Matt Lewis writes:

Perry ran a superb campaign in 2010, so this strikes me as a good "get" for Gingrich.

But this news also seems to make it clear (if it wasn’t already) that Perry is definitely not running for president.

It also makes me wonder if Perry might eventually endorse Gingrich for president.

Gingrich wrote the foreword for Perry's book, Fed Up.

(Updated 5/6: Johnson is now Newt's campaign manager.)

Quick Hits

Newt's spokesman, Rick Tyler:

In noting Gingrich’s accomplishments as a Member, Tyler telegraphed what could be a campaign messaging strategy to contrast the former Speaker’s record of concrete achievement at the federal level versus his opponents’ 'rhetoric' of as-yet-unfulfilled promises.

'I imagine those are the same people who thought balancing the budget was just an idea; I imagine those are the same people who thought welfare reform was just an idea,' Tyler said, in response to critics who complimented Gingrich’s contribution to Republican policy but otherwise consider him to be a political liability to the GOP.

Palm Beach Post:

'If…I end up running we will create a channel called Learning From America and everyday, with volunteers carrying cameras, we will try to find at least three places where everyday Americans are doing smart things,' Gingrich said.

'And every night we will file on the Internet three more examples of why every American should be an optimist, every American should be hopeful and every American can believe there’s a better future. I have no interest in running a 30-second attack ad that is petty, trivial, negative and destructive. I have every interest in a national dialogue.'

Matt Lewis:

A new book about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich could provide a last-minute boost to his chances heading into the primaries if he seeks the GOP nomination for president.

The book, "Citizen Newt," is being authored by the respected Reagan biographer Craig Shirley (who has been interviewing Gingrich one day a week) and is set to land on bookshelves just one month before the Iowa caucuses next January.

Quick Hits

Gentleman from Georgia:

[Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher] encouraged Gingrich to run for president because she thought he was the only politician, in either party, who was capable of running a campaign of hope and opportunity much like the 1980 Reagan campaign.

Matt Lewis from 2007:

The former House speaker from Georgia might be the only Republican presidential candidate, declared or otherwise, who has the potential to be romantic. Other people give speeches; when Newt speaks, the words have music. He's poetic. He's quixotic. He's...dangerous.

He's also incredibly intelligent. He's proposing cutting-edge solutions to vexing policy issues like health care and the tax code. He's offering a compelling vision for a limited but efficiently run federal government.

Something tells me we are heading into a time when conservatives will be willing to jump in the proverbial convertible and head to Vegas on a whim. Hey, Newt's driving.

Opensecrets.org gives the two 527s with the most funds raised so far in 2010:

American Solutions Winning the Future, $24,416,928
Service Employees International Union, $11,612,001