Saturday, December 3, 2011

(Audio) Newt's interview with Dana Loesch

Link to interview.

Newt: "the one candidate who has a real record of implementing conservative government"

So says Richard Viguerie, the conservative and the person who helped develop direct mail outreach.

He wrote recently:
"Gingrich, on the other hand, is well known to many conservative leaders who recognize that, despite his self-acknowledged errors and flaws, he is the one candidate who has a real record of implementing conservative government.

Balancing the budget, welfare reform and a host of other conservative initiatives that Gingrich championed as Speaker are not mere campaign rhetoric -- they actually happened."

Newt's attention to detail on South Carolina issues

Robert Costa wrote in National Review:
Watching the crowds, one saw that Gingrich’s substance on regional issues was crucial to his success. During stops in Charleston and Bluffton, for example, Gingrich’s command on seaport policy, an arcane topic within the Beltway, was largely ignored by campaign reporters. But South Carolina Republicans noticed.
The whole article is well worth reading.

And Tony Lee of Human Events tweeted:
You can tell Newt has LISTENED a lot to many conservative communities. He is speaking to visceral concerns many conservatives have.

The crowds Newt is attracting in Iowa

My three trips to Iowa -- which have started on July 15, September 29, and December 1 -- really demonstrate the upward arc of Newt's campaign.

In July, Newt's campaign was close to its nadir. I had every confidence that Newt would rebound, but there's no doubting that the campaign was hurting at that time. One of the reasons, however, I was still confident that Newt's support would increase was that everywhere we went -- whether an Iowa Cubs baseball game, a tea party event in Lamoni, or the Dallas County Fair -- people were very excited about Newt and praised his ideas.

That showed me that Newt's poll position -- he was in 5th place -- at that time was not because his message was not popular. It was in large part because the media was calling the campaign dead every day, and people were not eager to jump on board with a campaign that might end any day. (The most irresponsible thing that a number of reporters did was suggest that Newt might drop out at any time, despite no evidence to that.)

So, I thought, if Newt could get a small bump in the polls, that would prove the campaign's viability to others who were fond of Newt's solutions. I think it's fair to suggest Newt's Ames Debate performance -- when he called out Chris Wallace's "Mickey Mouse questions" -- was what got Newt 2012 started in an upward trajectory.

I was back in Iowa about a month-and-a-half later for Newt's unveiling of the 21st Century Contract with America. Newt was now essentially tied for third in the polls. You could sense the growing momentum.

Jen Green wrote on that it was about this time that Newt 2012 really started picking up steam. "After reading [the Contract's section on reforming the judiciary] I knew it was going to be a game-changer," Green wrote.

And this trip this weekend is really showing how much different Newt's lead in the polls is than those of Perry, Bachmann, Cain, etc.

Newt's first event Thursday was set up for 370 people. More than 500 showed up. Jason Clayworth of the Des Moines-Register noted that the crowd was bigger than the one Mitt Romney was able to draw at the same venue.

Newt's next appearance also had about 500 people.

The Polk County GOP Victory Dinner later that night had 400 people.

Newt -- whether it's South Carolina, Florida, or Iowa -- has been packing in the crowds recently. Bigger crowds than any other candidate this year.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Iowa -- and another Florida poll

I hope to catch up with the other news from Thursday in the next day. I wasn't able to do other posts because I drove up to Iowa in the morning.

(I do want to mention the new Florida poll. It showed Newt having 50% support. The last three Florida polls -- in order -- 41%, 47, 50.)

A ton of buzz surrounded Newt. It was great meeting the Iowa team. And I look forward to working with them the next couple of days.

Very exciting times. June 9 seems so long ago now.

Rasmussen poll: Newt 38, Romney 17

Jeffrey H. Anderson writes in The Weekly Standard that the poll "suggests that Gingrich is uniting the Tea Party and establishment wings of the Republican Party. The poll shows that among likely Republican primary voters who do not consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party, Gingrich is winning by 11 percentage points -- 32 to 21 percent (over Romney). Among those who do consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party, he’s winning by 37 points -- 47 to 10 percent (over Romney and Herman Cain). Among those who aren’t sure, he’s winning by 26 points -- 42 to 16 percent (over Romney)."

The Public Policy Polling surveys in Florida and Montana Wednesday showed the same thing -- that Newt is winning both the moderate and tea party vote. Nobody -- not Romney, not Perry, etc. -- has done that this year.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Rasmussen: Newt 45, Obama 43

From the story:
The Newt Gingrich surge has moved him to the top of the polls in Iowa, big gains in New Hampshire and now a two-point edge over President Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up.

Louisiana poll: Newt 31, Romney 23, Cain 12, Perry 11

“If Rick Perry can’t do better than fourth place in a neighboring state that has a popular Republican governor supporting him, then where can he do well? So this isn’t a good sign for Rick Perry at all,” Faucheux said.
Link to story.

Montana poll: Newt 37, Paul 12, Romney 11

Newt's favorability: 65/23. Among men: 65-25. Women: 64-22.

38% of women support him. 35% of men.

He gets 42% of the tea party vote. Bachmann is next at 18.

Gingrich again wins the moderate vote, 31-17%.

46% agree with Newt's immigration proposal. 17% oppose.

Newt, as he did in Florida, wins each age group.

PPP Florida poll: Newt 47%, Romney 17, Cain 15

You read that right -- 47%.

Public Policy Polling, which did the survey, gives "one of the key emerging trends in the Republican race -- Gingrich isn't just rising, Romney's also falling."

More from PPP: "The biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart. But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that- some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."

Newt leads among both tea partiers -- getting 53% of them, compared to 24% for Cain and just 7% for Romney.

But Newt also beats Romney among moderates -- 33-22%.

Newt's favorability is 72/21.

Gingrich is especially strong among older voters. "Republican primary electorates can skew pretty old so Gingrich's support on that front bodes very well moving forward," writes PPP. But that's not to say Newt only gets the support of older voters -- he wins every age group.

PPP also points out that Newt could still improve. That's because Cain could very easily drop further -- and since 45% of Cain's supporters say Newt is their second choice.

On the recent dust up on immigration: 57% support Newt's policy. 20% oppose.

Newt's favorability among men: 76-23. Women: 67-19. 48% of men support. 45% of women. Just a huge gap!

Florida poll: Newt 41%, Romney 17, Cain 13

“I have not seen a lead this large, this late in a Republican presidential primary season since I have been polling,” said [Matt] Towery, who notes that his firm has never missed identifying the winner in Florida’s statewide contests.

(Video) Newt congratulates Young Republicans on 30 years

Link to video.

"I love Newt. How do I help?"

"More and more people are coming into the office," Scott Conroy quotes Gingrich’s New Hampshire campaign support manager, Erin Lamontagne, as saying. "People from all over are here saying, 'I love Newt. How do I help?' "

More from Conroy: “It’s frightening but exciting, I’ll tell you,” volunteer coordinator Pam Smith said of the uptick in interest. “Honest to God, they’re just flowing in hand over fist.”

South Carolina

The town hall Monday night was, according to a Charleston paper, "the biggest local event so far in the 2012 election cycle."

Tuesday saw another office open, this one in Bluffton. About 200 people attended the opening. 1000 were at a an outside town hall in Old Town Bluffton. Another 500 attended an evening event at Newberry Opera House.

James Epley, who is the campaign's volunteer chairman in Beauford County, told the Washington Post: “I’ve been with him here all over the state. Everywhere we go, even with people leaning to another candidate, he wins them over.”

"Gingrich, according to voters Patch talked to in recent days, is winning support by pushing many conservative causes, questioning assumptions and sending a positive message that includes hope for the country," writes Lindsay Street.

"Newt Gingrich’s harsh rhetoric against President Obama, mischievous nature, and fervent embrace of Americanism and American exceptionalism fit South Carolina’s political climate to a tee," wrote Tony Lee of Human Events.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Newt's Gallup Positive Intensity Score is 20. Romney is at 9.

It's the lowest Romney has been at all year.

Newt moving up in two NH polls; within 4 points in one

The InsiderAdvantage poll shows Mitt Romney at 31 and Newt at 27.

I will post any crosstabs of the poll when they are released.

A Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire from today has the race at Romney 34% and Newt at 24%.

Newt now has the highest New Hampshire average of any candidate not named Romney this year.

South Carolina poll: Newt 38, Romney 15, Cain 13

Among men, Newt is at 39%; he gets 36% support from women.

It's another poll from InsiderAdvantage.

Iowa poll: Newt 28, Paul 13, Romney 11

Among men, Newt gets 23%; among women, 33%. That darn gender gap!

The poll is from InsiderAdvantage.

Terrific polling news!

None of these polls have been fully released, so more details to come:

InsiderAdvantage also reporting brand new poll in Iowa tonight. Shows Gingrich on top with 28, Ron Paul is closest to him with 13. (link)
New Hampshire:
New InsiderAdvantage poll to be released tomorrow shows Romney and Gingrich in a statistical dead heat in New Hampshire. (link)
South Carolina:
New InsiderAdvantage poll from SC tonight! Gingrich 38, Romney 15, Cain 13, Paul 7, Perry 4, Bachman 3, Santorum 2, Someone else 5, undec 13 (link)
Newt with big lead on 1st night of our FL poll...he and Romney may be only ones over 10% and he's uniting anti-Mitt vote (link)

Monday, November 28, 2011

Former South Carolina Lt. Gov. endorses Newt

From Peter Hamby of CNN:
Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich picked up the endorsement of former South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer on Monday, giving him his most prominent surrogate to date in a state that Gingrich's campaign has billed as its "southern firewall."

"Speaker Newt Gingrich offers the best and most comprehensive plan to get America moving forward and that is why today I am announcing my full support for Speaker Gingrich ... a true conservative, a true patriot, and true leader," Bauer said in a statement.

Eight New Hampshire House Members endorse Newt 2012

John DiStaso:
Following his Sunday endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader, GOP presidential candidate and former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich on Monday picked up the backing of eight New Hampshire House members.

Backing Gingrich were Reps. Laurie Pettengill of Glen, who backed Mitt Romney in 2008, as well as Glen Hill of Northfield, Don McClarren of Nashua, Joe Pitre of Farmington, Kathy Lauer-Rago of Franklin, Joe Osgood of Claremont, Brandon Giuda of Chichester and Ken Sheffert of Hampton.

Pettengill said that although she backed Romney in 2008, “I have chosen to be with Newt this time because I feel he is the most conservative candidate today. He not only has the political know-how, but he will immediately put in to place actions that will renew America.”

Poll Position survey: Newt 32%, Romney 23, Cain 13

Here are the crosstabs for the poll.

Andy Harris (R-MD) endorses Newt

From Politico:
Maryland Congressman Andy Harris will endorse Newt Gingrich today. The freshman Republican, who was not in the House during Gingrich’s tenure as Speaker, will be the first of several federal and state legislators to announce their support for the surging presidential candidate, according to a source familiar with the rollout plan.
Harris is very conservative, and he is another sign that the conservative vote is coalescing behind Newt.

(Video) Bill Kristol defends Newt

Link to the short video clip.

(Video) Newt on debating President Obama

Link to video.

(Video) Editor of New Hampshire Union Leader on why the paper endorsed Newt

Link to video.

(Video) Newt in Florida over the weekend

Part 1 of Newt in Jacksonville.

Part 2 of Newt in Jacksonville.

Newt and Callista in Naples.

Newt 2012's ground game

"[Gingrich] has also started to put together a campaign organization in New Hampshire. He brought on respected tea party leader Andrew Hemingway and his team has been contacting almost 1,000 voters each day," writes the AP.

The New York Times: [Gingrich's] hiring of staff members in South Carolina [nine] and New Hampshire [six] is helping to lead one of the largest grass-roots efforts of any candidate." Newt 2012's South Carolina operation is the largest of any candidate running, notes CNN.

The New Hampshire-Union Leader Endorsement

It is the only statewide paper in New Hampshire, so its endorsement is highly sought after. Every candidate attempts to woo the editorial board in meeting with it. Here is the video of Newt's meeting for those who have not seen it.

"A lot of candidates say they're going to improve Washington. Newt Gingrich has actually done that, and in this race he offers the best shot of doing it again," wrote the paper's publisher, Joseph W McQuaid.

Nate Silver of the New York Times ran the numbers to see how meaningful the endorsement is. He found that "On average, the candidates endorsed by The Union Leader finished with 29 percent of the vote in New Hampshire -- an 11-percentage-point improvement from the 18 percent they averaged in the polls when the endorsement was made."

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Newt 2012's Iowa Chairwoman responds to misinformation from other campaigns

Linda Upmeyer, the Iowa State House Majority Leader and the Chairwoman of Newt's efforts in Iowa, "accused Bachmann of misrepresenting the candidate’s position for political gain," writes the Des Moines-Register.

“This is bumper-sticker politics where we are dealing either with confused or just, I guess, untruthful people,” Upmeyer said. Gingrich supports neither citizenship for illegal immigrants nor amnesty, she said."

"Gingrich attracts another record crowd, defends immigration policy."

That was the headline from NBC News. "For more than four hours, a long line wrapped around the entire top floor of Books-A-Million here just to have the chance to visit briefly with Newt Gingrich and his wife, Callista."

“Frankly, like the bookstore, we are a little overwhelmed by the turnout here this morning,” the former House speaker told the more than 650 people who came out Saturday to copies of the Gingrich’s books autographed. “So thank you all for being here.”

"[Gingrich] also added about those who he spoke with Saturday: 'it’s very interesting, the number of people who say I appreciate and agree with your position on immigration was substantial and no one said they were offended.' "
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