Des Moines-Register poll: Newt 25, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 8, Cain 8

The poll was (obviously) done before Herman Cain announced he was suspending his campaign, but he was clearly on the downside already.

Where do those voters go? Newt. Every poll says that. The only question is how many. My guess is the number is enough to effectively put Newt at 30%.

18% of all voters said Newt was their second choice, suggesting that as other campaigns fall off he can pick up even more ground.

We still need to keep pushing, but currently Newt is the clear frontrunner nationally, in Iowa, in South Carolina, and in Florida. He's running a close second in New Hampshire.

The trick now is to make sure our voters get to the polls and caucus sites.

Many have noted that this was about the time that Mike Huckabee shot ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa four years ago.

Newt's "Iowa Relaunch"

Jason Clayworth writes:

Newt Gingrich is preparing an Iowa campaign relaunch of sorts, hiring up to six campaign staffers and opening two campaign headquarters this month: One in Des Moines and one in Iowa City.

He’ll additionally hit the campaign trail in Iowa for about 30 days between now and the Jan. 3 caucuses, R.C. Hammond, his national spokesman said today.

“There’s a priority. It’s Iowa,” Hammond said.

...

Gingrich will campaign in Iowa Monday through Wednesday and return again on Nov. 19th to participate in the Family Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum.

Cain's Iowa polls "markedly lower"

From the AP:

Private polling shared with The Associated Press shows Cain’s support has declined in Iowa since last month. Internal polls of likely Republican caucusgoers showed Cain’s support consistent with The Des Moines Register’s poll in late October, which showed Cain narrowly leading in Iowa with 23 percent. The private polls showed Cain’s Iowa still in double digits, but markedly lower.

C-SPAN2 and C-SPAN.org will air Iowa GOP Reagan dinner on Friday

Jennifer Jacobs:

C-SPAN2 will broadcast live the speeches of five GOP presidential candidates at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Ronald Reagan Dinner in Des Moines.

Speakers include Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvaia.

Also speaking at this annual state party fundraiser are Iowa’s own U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, U.S. Rep. Steve King and Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn.

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will not be able to attend, but one of his five sons, Josh Romney, will work the crowd on his dad’s behalf.

Live coverage of the 90-minute event begins on C-SPAN2 and c-span.org at 7 p.m. Friday Iowa time at the Iowa Events Center’s Hy-Vee Hall, said Craig Caplan, C-SPAN’s senior political producer.

Looking at the race

As most Saturdays are, the news was pretty slow. The one bit of news the new Des-Moines Register poll, which placed Newt in a statistical tie for 4th place.

The poll, which is almost seen as gospel by some people, does not have a great track record lately, but let's say it's a 100% accurate snapshot of this moment.

It's the same story as the other polls lately: Cain is the conservative alternative to Romney at this moment, Ron Paul is guaranteed to get 10-12% (and won't move up or down from that range), and Newt and Perry are vying to oust Cain as the anti-Romney.

I am not going to write off Perry at all, because he does have a ton of money and, when retail campaigning, is a good candidate. But I don't see his debate performances improving much; he's never been a good debater, going back to Texas. And he has so far been much too negative toward Romney. While Perry's attacks will probably hurt Romney -- though I think Romney is a little like Paul in that he has reached his ceiling but probably has hit his basement too -- they will not help Perry.

A Perry-Romney ad war, millions of negative ads, guarantees one thing: Perry is not going to be the nominee. This is what happened in the Democrat Primary in 2004. Heading into Iowa, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt were seen as the two favorites. They ripped into each other so much, though, that they destroyed each other's chances, allowing John Kerry to slip in, win Iowa, and eventually the nomination.

Romney could possibly survive such a scenario if conservatives do not coalesce around a single candidate. But honestly, if conservatives do get behind a single candidate -- not splintering their vote five ways -- Romney is probably done no matter what.

So if the media tries to spin this poll as being ultra-negative for Newt, don't fall for it. They are the same people who two months ago said Perry-Romney were the only two candidates who mattered. And two weeks before that they were saying Bachmann was a front-runner.

Only about 30% of Cain's supporters say they are strongly committed to him, so this race is incredibly fluid. Newt, while not attacking Cain, is starting to draw contrasts on tax policy, experience -- and next weekend is the one-on-one debate between the two. Followed by a regular debate on November 9th. And a foreign policy debate soon after that.

This wasn't a ground-breaking post, but it was meant to fight back against the media declaring a winner based on a poll two months before votes are cast, before Newt has fully built an organization in Iowa, and before he gets to debate Cain one-on-one.

The full results of the Des-Moines Register poll will be released later this morning, and I will have more on it then.

Iowa GOP: Caucuses will be January 3rd

Writes Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines-Register: "IA GOP central committee's Steve Scheffler: The date is in stone, period. There is no chance we will reconvene to change the date."

Which officially means I will be in Iowa for New Year's Eve. Probably going door-to-door for the 45th President of the United States.

Letter to the editor in the Des Moines Register

Here's the full letter:

Thanks again to Kathie Obradovich for a fine Oct. 6 column, “Voters Look Around; Newt Reinvigorated.” Newt Gingrich may not be the best campaigner, but he puts good leadership plans on the table. His 21st Century Contract with America is better than anything coming from the other candidates.

We need Gingrich’s knowledge of what works and what does not and his knowledge of government structure and history. While other candidates are trying to put together plans, Gingrich’s plan is ready to go into effect on day one of his presidency. In the shape we’re in, we cannot afford to wait, and we can’t afford an inexperienced politician fumbling around to get America back on track.

Any further debates need to stay focused on plans and policy, not the playground spats that seem to be the norm. Our need for a knowledgeable leader is urgent and past due. Gingrich is the one to fill that need.

— Jim Daggs, Ackley

The only quibble I have is that Newt and his current team are great at campaigning. It was the people who had only been with Newt for a couple of months -- like, oh, the current campaign manager of the Perry campaign or the top adviser of that campaign -- and then quit Newt 2012 who might not be the greatest at campaigning.

Newt previewing his plans to oust activist judges

From Kathie Obradovich of the Des Moines Register

Newt Gingrich plans on Friday to shed a bit more light on his pledge in the “21st Century Contract with America” to get rid of activist judges.

In a phone interview today, he said he’ll release a paper on Friday that delves into what he considers the founding fathers’ intention that the president and Congress could oust errant judges. He’s also scheduled to speak Friday at the Values Voters summit in Washington, D.C.

“I think it will be one of the more important speeches of the campaign because it is establishing a discussion about the Constitution and the courts in the way it has not been done in probably 100 years,” he said.

He said he’ll detail an idea that he attributes to Alexander Hamilton, that the president and Congress can simply abolish courts to get rid of judges who trample on American values.

He said he had been thinking about the issue ever since the 9th Circuit Court ruled in 2002 that the words “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance were unconstitutional. He described the ruling as anti-religion and anti-American.

...

He said Americans can use the existing constitutional powers of the two elected branches to correct the court.

He said he envisions Congress being able to call a judge before a congressional hearing to explain the reasoning behind a ruling. “And if it’s not satisfactory, the second step would be to abolish his court. Zero it out in the appropriations bill,” Gingrich said. He said a new court could be created and a new judge appointed.

“You don’t have to go through an impeachment. You can just say this guy shouldn’t be a judge,” he said.

Newt's schedule in Iowa on Thursday and Friday

Writes Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines-Register:

Here’s his schedule, according to his campaign:

THURSDAY:

Noon: Gingrich town hall meeting with employees of the Principal Financial Group, 711 High St. Des Moines. [This is when Newt will be unveiling the 21st Century Contract with America.]

6 p.m., Gingrich will meet with grassroot activists at the Republican Party of Iowa headquarters, 621 East 9th St., Des Moines.

FRIDAY:

8 a.m., Breakfast with local grassroot activists at the Best Western Starlite Village, 1518 3rd Avenue NW, Fort Dodge.

11 a.m., Gingrich will host a town hall meeting on creating jobs in science and technology. The meeting will be on the campus of Iowa State University. Gingrich will tour the Virtual Reality Application Center after the town hall meeting.

Steve Deace has some harsh words for Rick Perry

I try to stay positive on this blog, but here is a very important story that should be getting more attention. Steve Deace was one of the most influential voices in the Iowa Caucuses four years ago and was largely credited with Mitt Romney's disappointing second place finish. Today, Deace said on his radio show of the Perry campaign: "“This is like watching a sweater unravel."

From Tony Leys of the Des Moines-Register:

“He’s like an NFL quarterback who has a contract holdout. He’s not there for the preseason, he’s not there all off-season. He signs on the Monday before the season starts, and he’s the star quarterback, so you put him in right away,” Deace said. “His timing with his receivers isn’t there. The nuances and the changes they made to the playbook to get ready for a new season – he hasn’t caught up to those things yet. And, lo and behold, before you know it, your team is 0-2 – and 0-2 teams don’t make the playoffs.”

On the in-state tuition for illegal immigrants issue:

Perry was defending himself against allegations that he encouraged illegal immigration by supporting a Texas plan granting in-state college tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. The governor said that if critics disapprove of educating such young people, “I don’t think you have a heart.”

Deace said that stance is insulting to many conservatives, who think it’s unfair to offer discounted tuition to illegal immigrants while denying it to U.S. citizens who live in other states. “That’s going to kill him. That’s stuff Barack Obama says,” Deace said. “You don’t walk into a Republican primary audience and say stuff like that to them. … To say stuff like that to a Republican primary audience shows a guy that’s defensive, unprepared and unpolished.”

Details about Newt's campaign stop in Iowa today

From Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines-Register:

Gingrich and [Ron] Paul had dueling presidential campaign events today: both were billed as town hall meetings and both began at 2 p.m. in Sioux City.

It offered a rare chance to get a side-by-side look at events for the two GOP candidates.

Gingrich, a former U.S. House speaker from Georgia, drew a slightly bigger crowd – about 40 more people than Paul, a longtime congressman from Texas.

...

More people came to Gingrich’s event than were at Paul’s across town -- about 215.

Because the event took place on Morningside College’s campus, it instantly had the atmosphere of a college lecture. Although they nodded and laughed at points, the audience was more subdued than the Paul crowd. Gingrich attracted more young people: It was an even split with half college students, half older Iowans.

Jacobs notes that Newt spoke for just a few minutes, then opened it up for questions from the audience.

Jacobs:

THEMES: Anecdotes about the 1980s, 1990s and the Reagan administration; the 10th amendment; the military; harsh criticism of the Obama administration; the Contract with America introduced 17 years ago and the one he intends to unveil Sept. 29.

REACTION: Ted Brian, 43, a teacher who lives in Sioux City, said he thought Gingrich came across as trustworthy and believable.

“The thing that impressed me the most about the speech was that he seems to have specific ideas and specific programs he wants to either implement or cut,” Brian said. “And he doesn’t seem afraid to talk about those specifics.”

Jacobs quotes Newt:

“I do not ask anyone to be for me. I’m asking people to be with me because I think this is going to eight years of very hard work. … If you try change of this scale, you’re going to have things that don’t work very well.”

More details on the 21st Century Contract with America

From Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines-Register:

Newt Gingrich promised to lay out a “very visionary” new Contract with America during a speech next week in Iowa.

It “will be 10 times deeper and more comprehensive than 1994,” he told an audience of about 40 people Monday night in Council Bluffs. “Because the truth is, while we changed the system some … we didn’t fundamentally change the underlying system.”

The new “21st Century Contract with America” will, he said.

Gingrich said his ideas, which he will unveil Sept. 29 in Des Moines, are “very big, and they’re exactly what Abraham Lincoln would have campaigned on.”

Monday night’s campaign stop, at Bent Tree Golf Club, centered on a screening of “A City Upon a Hill,” a documentary Gingrich and his wife, Callista, helped create about the concept of American exceptionalism.

Afterward, Gingrich spoke and answered questions for an hour, flexing his intellectual muscles and calling his campaign “the antithesis” of the other campaigns.

“One of the major themes of next year if I’m the nominee is going to be that (President Barack) Obama is the best food stamps president in American history and I’ll be the best paycheck president in American history,” he said.

“And I will be happy to debate Obama on any university campus in the country, including Harvard and Berkeley. I’m not afraid to debate this president anywhere, any time, on any topic.”

Gingrich had the audience laughing multiple times with quips and stories about his personal life, including his childhood ambition to be either a paleontologist or a zoo director.

After the 2½-hour event, Sam McManus, 58, of Council Bluffs said Gingrich’s pitch “changed my whole perception of him” from a has-been to a serious contender.

McManus’s wife, Anna, a railroad official, went even further. She said she was previously leaning toward Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, but “it’s going to take a lot to get me to go anywhere else now. Mitt is good, but he’s not going to have ideas like this.”

The original Contract with America presaged today’s tea party movement with its calls for smaller government, lower taxes and greater public accountability.

...

Gingrich’s two-day Iowa campaign swing continues today with a town hall meeting at Morningside College in Sioux City at 2 p.m.

Newt will be opening offices in Iowa and New Hampshire

(Update: It looks like it is Iowa and New Hampshire, not South Carolina.)

Today, Jason Clayworth of The Des Moines-Register wrote:

The campaign stops Monday in Council Bluffs and the surrounding area and will be in Sioux City the next day. Details to the visit will be released later this week.

Gingrich will additionally open his campaign’s first Iowa office in mid October somewhere in the Des Moines metro area.

“Iowa has always been the campaign’s top priority,” said R.C. Hammond, a spokesman for Gingrich. “We’re moving forward with our campaign plan. I look at this as a sign of that we’re gearing up, that we will have an organization that is ready to turn people out to caucus and support Newt.”

Sign up to volunteer for Newt here.

(Video) Newt at Des Moines-Register Soapbox

Link to video.

Newt's campaigning in Iowa getting attention.

Newt's campaigning in Iowa -- being there 16 of 45 days -- is getting attention in the Iowa press. Jennifer Jacobs of Des Moines-Register wrote a column today highlighting Newt's recent appearances in the Hawkeye State as well as his upcoming ones.

Newt will be back in the state with the first Presidential contest next Tuesday in "in Decorah and the surrounding area."

Jacobs:

On Aug. 4, Gingrich will be the highlight of a lawn party in Des Moines’s Waterbury neighborhood. Organizers of a five-county fundraiser say he will be at their event in Tiffin on Aug. 5. And he will be at the Iowa State Fair, his spokesman said this morning.

...

Since then, he was in Des Moines for the Strong America Now debt-reduction summit on June 18 and in Indianola on a tea party bus tour stop June 25.

On Fourth of July, he marched in the parade in Clear Lake and visited with political activists in that area.

Last week, Gingrich did speeches as part of a Family Leader lecture series in Pella and Iowa City. On the same day, July 11, he met with the Iowa Conservative Union in Cedar Rapids.

Later in the week, he spoke to a conservative breakfast club in Des Moines, threw the first pitch at an Iowa Cubs game (the ball did make it to the catcher, but Gingrich was in front of the mound, not on it), and spoke at a tea party event in Lamoni.

Before his Iowa visit next week, Gingrich is scheduled to be on the East Coast, campaigning in the early-voting state of New Hampshire before traveling to Georgia for several stops, including a meeting with phone bank volunteers at the Newt 2012 headquarters who call voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

How Newt will structure his campaign

Newt's campaign will not re-hire the same kind of expensive consultants who, on top of their own salary, spent the campaign into debt. Instead, they will get a boost from what Jason Clayworth calls "professional volunteer[s]." Former U.S. Representative Greg Ganske of Iowa is the latest example. He will serve as the Iowa finance chair of Newt 2012.

A few quotes from Clayworth's article:

"Reviews are being made and it’s possible that paid Iowa campaign staff will be hired but the center of the team will focus largely upon volunteers, Hammond said."

"As a campaign we have a lot of confidence in people who voluntarily come forward," said spokesman R.C. Hammond. "It's empowering and tough to question the dedication of a volunteer who is coming forward and saying, 'I want to help you.'"

"In addition to multiple ground-level supporters, several well-known Iowa political types have also stepped forward including Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton as Gingrich’s Iowa senior policy adviser and House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, the campaign’s Iowa campaign chairwoman."

Gingrich has a proven track record as a fundraiser: He raised more than $250,000 for Iowa GOP candidates in the last election cycle, Ganske noted.

Ganske said he believes Gingrich can revamp his campaign and become a major player in the Iowa caucuses by focusing on small events and gatherings that will cost the campaign little money but build his support.

R.C. Hammond also said that Newt will be in Iowa for 16 of the next 45 days.

Newt's Fourth of July

Newt walked the July 4th Parade in Clear Lake, Iowa on Monday. He estimates that in his career he has walked 150 parade routes.

Jennifer Jacobs quotes him when he was asked about the campaign: "Did there seem to be enough support to proceed?" Gingrich told reporters after the parade. "I just wish all the guys in Washington would come out and walk one parade with me and go to one town hall meeting with me. I think they’d have a different attitude."

From The New York Times:

"The attention comes and goes," Mr. Gingrich said, reciting rhythms of the Republican presidential race. "Sometime around October and November, it will settle down and be a race."

...

"I like campaigning face-to-face with people and being able to talk to folks," Mr. Gingrich said, adding that he intended to spend 16 days here in July and August. "It’s important to lay the base of support that will be there in January."

For all the speculation in political circles about the future of Mr. Gingrich’s campaign, there were no questions from Republicans who turned out for the parade.

They called out his name, waving him over for a handshake or a picture. He beamed as he walked from one side of the street to the other.

The sun was hot and the breeze was slow, but Mr. Gingrich barely broke a sweat. "Campaigning in August in Georgia is great training," he explained.

A gallery of pictures from the event.

The First Des Moines Register Poll

The Des Moines-Register poll has almost a folk lore around it. It is always printed in the Sunday edition of the paper, and in the Internet age, the poll is posted online Saturday night. When it was announced last week that the first such poll of this campaign would be released Saturday, it made big news among those watching the GOP nomination.

The results:

Mitt Romney: 23%
Michelle Bachmann: 22%
Herman Cain: 10%
Newt Gingrich: 7%
Ron Paul: 7%
Tim Pawlenty: 4%
Jon Huntsman: 2%

More extensive polling data has yet to be released, but if those were the only candidates who received support, then 25% of Iowa Republicans are undecided.

This leaves an interesting dilemma for Romney. He has previously tried to keep expectations in the Hawkeye State down, almost to the point of saying he will not seriously compete. He and his campaign have tried to argue that he is not a good match for Iowa because he is seen suspiciously by many conservatives. However, by being in the lead in this poll, he takes the risk of looking weak should he not heavily fight for Iowa.

Is Bachmann going to be able to keep her high support, or will her poll numbers come back down some, just as Cain's did after the memories of his debate performance last month faded?

Newt has had a rough couple of weeks of press coverage, yet he still is in the running. If in fact he has finally turned the corner from the staff and other issues -- and the news that his fundraising has started to rebound is a big indicator he may have -- and the stories about him revolve more around his policies and record as a conservative reformer, then he will rise back up. From different reports, he and the campaign staff still with him seem much more comfortable since the staff shakeup. The reason is that they have all been together for a few years at American Solutions -- the ones who quit were very new additions -- and some of the replacements for those who resigned were also from "Newt World."

R.C. Hammond: Newt "getting tremendous response wherever he goes."

Hammond is quoted in the Des Moines-Register as saying:

"There’s a big difference between what goes on in Washington, D.C., and what goes on in the campaign trail. He’s getting tremendous response wherever he goes. People are very excited about having an option of voting for a candidate who is actually putting forward bold solutions."

I think that that is right: most people are not paying attention to the race this early, especially to staff issues.