Romney blaming Iowa and South Carolina problem on religion?

I have written previously about the apparent strategy of Mitt Romney to not "play" in Iowa and South Carolina. Two recent columns -- one by Craig Robinson of the IowaRepublican and the other by Ben Smith of Politico -- discusses that strategy.

Robinson, in writing that the former Massachusetts Governor has not been in the Hawkeye State for 195 days, destroys that claim by Romney's camp and the mainstream media -- including Smith of Politico -- that Romney does not do well in conservative states because he belongs to the Church of Jesus Christ Latter-day Saints. If conservatives were such bigots -- to a religious group, by the way, that is one of the most conservative -- Robinson asks wouldn't have Orrin Hatch faced such criticism when he ran for President? And if Iowa Republicans were so opposed to Mormons, how could Matt Schultz have won a "contentious primary" against the Republican favored by the establishment in the 2010 race for Secretary of State? (Robinson does not mention him, but Jon Huntsman, who will likely be running for President this cycle, has not been dragged down by being a Mormon either.)

So, Robinson asks, maybe it's not Romney's religious faith but his record? His record of flip-flopping on abortion and marriage. His health care bill that is essentially the same as Obamacare. (Romney supporters who distinguish the two bills by saying one was a state and one was a federal statute miss the point of federalism. If government is controlling your life, it does not matter much if the bureau is located in your state capital or the nation's. Federalism is essentially a legal argument: the states have domain over certain issues and the federal government has domain over a few, which does not include forcing citizens to buy health insurance. That makes Obamacare unconstitutional -- on top of bad policy. Romneycare is not unconstitutional -- just terrible policy.)

Robinson quotes Chuck Lauder, a former Executive Director of the Republican Party of Iowa, saying: "The entire fiction [that Romney is being dragged down by his faith] is a twin of the same loser argument that to be opposed to Obamacare means you're a racist."

If Romney hopes to do better in Iowa and South Carolina, along with other states with large numbers of conservatives, he would be well served to not have his campaign hint that the only reason people could possibly have to oppose him is his religion.

Newt the favorite among Iowa Republicans in a focus group (video)

Last week, Frank Luntz had a focus group of 26 Iowa Republicans who voted in the 2008 Presidential caucus. Some of the reactions can be seen in the above video.

The rules, according to U.S. News and World Report: "Like the television show Survivor, the 26 would discuss the candidates after Luntz showed videos of each. Then one would be voted out of the 2012 Iowa Caucus."

The results unfolded like this, writes Paul Bedard:

Some went fast. Daniels was 'boring,' Barbour’s southern accent was 'a turnoff,' and Santorum was 'yesterday’s news.' Romney went down next, labeled 'another Obama.' Next was Thune, though the Iowans say he has potential. Christie, who doesn’t want to run, went next. The reason, says one panelist to Luntz, author of the hit Words That Work and the upcoming Win: “He doesn’t want the job, so why should we give it to him?”

The Iowans then argued for their favorites, like Pawlenty, whose 'blue collar conservatism' and victories in Democratic-dominated Minnesota were a hit. When he was next to go, some of his supporters vowed that he’d make the cut down the road.

That left four: Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin, and Bachmann, who then bested Palin because Bachmann was 'less polarizing.' But because Bachmann was seen by the group as the least presidential of the remaining three, she was dumped, followed by Huckabee, making Gingrich the surprise winner.

They liked a video of Gingrich effectively blasting the national debt and the radical fixes proposed by Obama’s debt commission, like ending the home mortgage deduction. One panel member says, 'We want to see him dismantle Obama in the debates, and he can do it.' Luntz’s own conclusion is, 'Principles matter more than pragmatism to these voters, and principles with solid debating skills matter most.'

This focus group squares with another Luntz group, back in 2005:

Gingrich continues to enjoy a gut connection with Republican voters. Back in 2005, consultant Frank Luntz held focus groups in Iowa and New Hampshire on the Republican candidates. In a report published afterward, Luntz wrote, 'We were genuinely surprised by the strongly favorable reaction' to Gingrich's 'speeches and interviews.' According to Luntz, voters ignored, or in some cases forgot, the controversial nature of Gingrich's speakership. 'The words he spoke were like nothing they had heard from anyone else,' Luntz went on. 'While he didn't start either session with any measurable support, he ended both Iowa and New Hampshire sessions with the most new converts.' Out of office, Gingrich has remained largely insulated from the scandals and debacles of the Bush Republicans. In fact, the 2006 midterm election results could be viewed as confirmation of what Gingrich has been saying for some time: that the Republican party and broader conservative movement have lost their way, and the time has come for a rebirth of the reform impulse that in 1994 brought the GOP to congressional majority status for the first time in 40 years.

If Gingrich jumps in, he needs to continue with the same message -- not dampen it down like so many candidates do -- and he needs to keep being willing to talk about it anywhere he goes.

If he does that, and if Luntz's focus groups are any indication, he could make up the small deficit he has in the current polls -- in a hurry.

Newt's PAC raises second most among GOP, spends more in Iowa than anyone else.

According to FEC reports, American Solutions PAC raised $314,000 in the last quarter. Among Republicans, only Sarah Palin had more, with $469,000. Both her and Gingrich outpaced, as the Washington Post put it, "longtime fundraising leader" Mitt Romney. Of all the prospective Presidential candidates -- Palin, Romney, Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, etc. -- Newt was the last to start a PAC. Yet in less than a year, he is competitive with the two top fundraisers: Palin, whose committee has been up for a couple of years, and Romney, whose PAC is nearly three years old.

So where was Gingrich spending this money? He spent the third most -- behind Romney and Palin -- on contributions "to other candidates and state parties."

And interestingly, much of Gingrich's money went to the state that has held the nation's first Presidential contest since 1972: Iowa.

Danielle Kurtzleben writes:

American Solutions, a political action committee founded and chaired by Gingrich, contributed $107,500 to Iowa politicians and the state party. Pawlenty's Freedom First PAC donated $82,000 in the state, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gave $50,100. Other possible presidential hopefuls spending on 2010 Iowa elections included Huckabee, who dropped $15,500; Palin, with $15,000....

Cary Covington, professor of political science at the University of Iowa, says that contributing to state officials' campaigns can go a long way toward mobilizing Republican voters. 'You need the support of the party at the local level,' says Covington. 'Getting people to come out on a cold winter night isn't easy, and (state-level politicians) are the people who have the connections and the organization to do that.'

On top of that, Newt's 527, American Solutions for Winning the Future, raised over 9.9 million dollars the first nine months of 2010. (527s can raise money in unlimited amounts, unlike PACs.)

Alexander Burns of Politico:

And even those figures won’t provide a full reckoning of Gingrich’s fundraising activities this cycle. According to data shared with Morning Score, Gingrich helped Republicans raise more than $7 million over the 2009-2010 cycle, through dozens of speeches and nearly $1.9 million raised for GOP campaign committees through direct mail. He also participated -- along with many others -- in a joint NRSC/NRCC fundraising dinner that brought in over $14 million for the two committees.

Gingrich spread his attention widely, but also put down deep financial markers in early primary states: In Iowa, Gingrich’s donations, speeches and other appeals guided some $256,000 to Republican candidates. In South Carolina, he generated $68,000 for the GOP. His New Hampshire presence was more limited, but he still brought in $5,000 at a speech to a state GOP breakfast and raised $18,000 for Sen.-elect Kelly Ayotte in combined small-dollar donations.

Given the earlier numbers, that means that through his "speeches and other appeals" in Iowa that Newt raised nearly $150,000.

Though it is not clear, it would appear that Newt's role in the larger campaign to remove three Iowa judges who called gay marriage a "constitutional right" does not count toward that above total as it was not a Republican Party effort.

Gingrich in 2nd place, says PPP.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) releasaed a poll Tuesday showing that Sarah Palin, at 21%, is first among Republicans, with Newt Gingrich's 19% support in second. Mitt Romney is narrowly behind at 18 and Mike Huckabee gets 16% of likely primary voter support.

The last such poll done by PPP had Romney at 22%, Huckabee at 21%, Gingrich at 18%, and Palin at 17%.

Newt up 43-39 against Obama, says Zogby.

In their most recent poll, Zogby International reports that Newt Gingrich is leading President Obama by four points, 43-39. Mitt Romney is up 44-38, while Sarah Palin is down 41-40.

If one of Romney's main selling points is electability, this poll would seem to do some damage to that as he barely outdoes Gingrich. This after Romney already ran for President.

New Quinnipiac University poll: Top 4 Repubs between 19 and 15%

Sarah Palin gets 19%, Mitt Romney gets 18, Mike Huckabee gets 17, and Newt Gingrich gets 15.

Another tidbit: Since February 2007, Gingrich has added eight points to his favorable rating and shaved four off his unfavorable.

Gallup memo: Most wide open GOP field since '72

A new Gallup Poll has the four GOP front-runners -- Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich -- bunched up between 19 and 13 percent. Romney and Palin both draw 19% support; Huckabee, 16; and Gingrich at 13. Romney and Palin's support has not changed since September, while Huckabee and Gingrich have each gained four percentage points in the two months.

Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones writes of the race at this very early part, "The current results on Republicans' presidential nomination preferences suggest the 2012 contest could be more wide open than any since the winners began to be determined largely through state primaries and caucuses in 1972."

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post quotes a GOP consultant who worked on Romney's 2008 Presidential campaign as saying, "There has never been a field as wide open as this one is. Ever."

The liberal website Talking Points Memo put together the results of a series of Public Policy Polling polls, and they illustrate just how jumbled the race is.

More Quick Hits

From CNN's website:

Next month the former House Speaker makes a high profile visit to South Carolina, another important early voting state in the presidential primary calendar. According to a GOP source, Gingrich keynotes the Spartanburg Republican Party's Bronze Elephant Dinner on December 16.

In their latest analysis of their polls, Public Policy Polling writes:

Newt Gingrich's one and only lead in this round of 18 polls comes from North Carolina where he gets 23% to 19% for Huckabee and Palin and 14% for Romney. Meanwhile Huckabee matches his largest lead in any individual state in Kentucky where he gets 26% to 19% for Palin, 17% for Gingrich, and 13% for Romney. Gingrich and Huckabee splitting these two states is somewhat emblematic of the fact that for either to win the GOP nomination may take the other not running since a strong across the board performance in the South would be vital for both of their chances.

Newt is gaining influence within the Tea Party

Given the Tea Party's dramatic influence on the upcoming midterm elections -- whether one looks at the moderate Republicans they have already played a part in defeating or the Democrats they will knock out on November 2 -- many have begun to speculate on the movement's role in the 2012 Presidential race.

The first part of that race, of course, is deciding who the GOP will nominate to take on President Obama. The general consensus has formed, within many conservative circles as well as liberal, that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be the movement's favorite.

However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that, in the words of Pater Wallsten, "One third of Republicans support the tea party so strongly that they describe themselves as part of the movement more than they identify as Republicans. Among this group, Mr. Gingrich is considered the GOP's "most important leader."

Palin, however, does win among the Republicans who while supportive of the Tea Party movement "identifies more as Republicans."

The article also discusses the two different manners in which Gingrich and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have prepared for possible White House bids.

The reason they have followed different paths is simple: they simply view the movement differently. Whereas Romney, according to his advisers, "is betting that the tea-party groundswell, while energizing fiscal conservatives, doesn't mark a fundamental shift in the preferences of GOP voters." Basically, the movement will wither and not have an influence for much longer.

Gingrich's view as described by Wallsten:

[Gingrich] views the tea-party revolt as the dawn of an enduring movement, and he has spent more time courting tea-party activists than forging ties to Republican party leaders. Mr. Gingrich has recast his American Solutions group, launched in 2007 to press for expanded oil drilling and other policy initiatives, into a tea-party clearinghouse of sorts -- creating a curriculum to teach activists, small business owners and first-time candidates how to run campaigns. He is keeping in touch with this potential army of volunteers.

So when it comes to building a base of support for a 2012 run, Governor Romney has courted a lot of party leaders. And Newt "is traveling the country to build alliances with local tea-party activists in key presidential primary and caucus states....assign[ing] a full-time staffer at American Solutions to recruit and work with local activists across the country. Many of those now in his database live in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- key early-voting states in the presidential primaries, where Mr. Gingrich has devoted time to meeting them in small groups."

Wallsten then gives the story of one such meeting:

Elisabet Wilson, a tea-party activist who lives near Greenville, S.C., said she received a call from a Gingrich aide last spring seeking her attendance at a May roundtable with the former speaker at a local hotel. When she arrived, she found a group of nearly 30 fellow activists.

"He went around the room and asked each of us, why did you get involved?" Ms. Wilson said.

Ms. Wilson later agreed to serve as a state coordinator for American Solutions.

Wallsten continues, "Mr. Gingrich said American Solutions was intended to boost the conservative movement whether or not he runs."

"It's certainly probably broadly helpful (to a presidential campaign), but it's not designed for that,' Gingrich said." "We're happy to share our ideas and our information with everybody, with all the different candidates."

Some quick hits

From The Statesman:

Speaking at a forum put on by the Austin Tea Party Patriots, Gingrich was asked about his plans, as the crowd chanted, 'Newt. Newt.' Gingrich ignored the question and redirected his answer to talk about the competence of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Rep. John Boehner, the House minority leader.

...

Gingrich challenged the conservative crowd to continue advocating for small government and free market values. 'You are serving your country as a citizen when you get involved,' he told the often cheering and applauding group, which was estimated by organizers to be about 450 people strong.

...

Gingrich said he signed [the Contract from America] 'as a tea partier.'

After the event, [Tea Party Patriots organizer Greg Holloway] said: 'The people seemed energized, interested.'

From Politico:

Newt's 527, American Solutions, raised 2.7 million dollars -- "almost as much as the groups headed by his prospective rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, brought in combined. [Though, as the website points out, Newt's group has fewer restrictions on raising money.]

Gingrich, the former House speaker, has used his committee, American Solutions for Winning the Future, to pay political staff and consultants, build its email list, fundraise and travel the country. Those activities are considered necessary to lay the foundation for a presidential bid, and are similar to how Minnesota Gov. Pawlenty, and former Govs. Romney of Massachusetts, Palin of Alaska and Huckabee of Arkansas have used their committees.

...

“I see a massive acceleration on the fundraising side,” [Chief Operating Officer Dan Varroney] said, rejecting the premise that American Solutions is geared towards positioning Gingrich for a 2012 presidential run. “Not at all,” he said. “Our focus is clear cut: to save America.”

From the Independent Voter Network:

Reflecting on the 1942 Democratically-controlled Congress that created what he termed 'an anti-appropriations committee, Gingrich claimed that 'a substantial number of New Deal agencies were abolished by the actions of that committee.'

...

“You can’t govern by saying no,” [Gingrich] said. “Offer a dramatically better set of solutions principled based on conservatism...but solutions...not just ideologies. And all of a sudden people look up and you have an argument.”

"The Gingrich Surge"

So says Matthew Continetti of The Weekly Standard, who wrote a cover story about Newt Gingrich in March 2007.

He notes that from March 21 to April 11, Gingrich gained six points in the CNN Republican primary polling data. "What's fascinating, though, is Newt Gingrich's surge into the top tier of presidential prospects," writes Continetti. "He's gained six points in a month, and is only one point behind Palin. His favorable number is about the same as Palin's, but his unfavorable number is significantly less....As for Gingrich, the poll definitely suggests a presidential bid could gain some traction."

Another poll also shows good news for Newt -- and the other Republican frontrunners. Public Policy Polling (PPP) pitted President Obama against Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin. Huckabee, by 47-45%, has the best numbers currently. Gingrich is tied with the President, 45-45%, while Romney is up 45-44%. Sarah Palin is down just two points, 47-45%.

That suggests two things: 1) Gingrich, due to a great rehabilitation on his part, is not nearly the divisive figure some still try to paint him as; and 2) Obama is in great trouble.

Chicago Tribune writer tries to argue Gingrich was for individual mandate

In an attempt to help sell Obamacare, liberals have tried to tie Republicans and conservatives in with some of the aspects of the legislation. In some instances, such as with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, they are correct. But their other attempts have fallen flat.

Recently, President Obama claimed that the premier conservative think tank, The Heritage Foundation, favored the exchanges set up in his health care bill. Heritage immediately came out to refute the claim -- as they had to do in 2008, when candidate Obama said the group favored his tax plan over John McCain's and as they have to do in the previous weeks over claims they support the White House's financial reform package.

In another example of liberal fibbing, Media Matters first "reported" -- and then numerous of lazy reporters parroted, including one from The Chicago Tribune -- that Newt Gingrich supported the individual mandate a few years ago. While Newt talked about the idea of forcing people to put up a bond equal to a health insurance policy -- to drastically reduce the number of free loaders -- he did not support the idea of forcing citizens to buy a private product in order to be in good standing.

A notable difference is that the money remains the individual's unless they need medical care. If they do not need it, it is still in their possession. It serves the purpose the mandate does while maintaining more liberty and not violating that pesky Constitution.

2012 polls

It needs to be said at the beginning that relying on polls two years before the Iowa caucuses is not the best thing to do. However, they do serve some purpose, and as such, a quick overview can reveal some things.One of the knocks against running Gingrich is his divisiveness. While that was true when he stepped down as Speaker of the House, he has done a very good job in recent years of rehabbing his image. Some of those events -- when he met with Hillary Clinton over health information technology, Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry on the climate, and most recently, Al Sharpton and President Obama on education -- have drawn ire from many conservatives.Their criticism has been largely silly, acting as if Gingrich has advocated for large-scale surrender of principles. All is he has done is tried to open a dialogue -- and he is confident his ideas will beat out those of the liberals he has met with. It was a message he spoke forcefully at CPAC.

Combined with that, as well as his focus on actual ideas and solutions, his popularity has been rising. In fact, in a June 2009 poll -- the last such poll I can find -- his popularity number with independents is split 37-38%. Being able to hold his own with that bloc is vital, of course, to any chance of victory. And chances are, when exposed to more of Newt's ideas, the 29% undecided will break more for him, handing him a win among unaffilated voters.

One of the interesting things the poll shows is that those under 30 are much more undecided than those above that age. Of course, much of that is because the older crowd remembers his days as Speaker, when he was target number one of the Clinton White House and liberal groups. The more people focus on the issues and reality, not the media spin and half-truths, the better it is for Newt.

Gingrich's standing in polls against President Obama have been improving, better than than the other top Republican contenders. A Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm, survey from April 2009 showed Obama winning, 52-39%. But just two months later, the lead was down to 49-41% and Newt's numbers were better than Mike Huckabee (50-43) or Sarah Palin (52-40) and very close to Mitt Romney (48-40).

The next poll that pitted Obama and Gingrich was one from Clarus. It had Obama winning 48-36, right in the middle of the pack of GOP candidates. Romney did much better than every other Republican in the poll, trailing just by four points. Of course, that could be an outlier, or just an obvious result of having spent all of 2007 and two months in 2008 running for President already. His name identification is high.

President of Clarus Ron Faucheux said, "Gingrich improved his standing since the August poll when he was trailing Obama by 18 points. He's narrowed the gap to 12 points. Relative to Obama, Huckabee and Palin experienced only minimal improvement since August."

That is a pretty obvious sign that Gingrich is doing something that Huckabee and Palin are failing at. When combined with the results of Frank Luntz's focus groups that showed people warmed very much to Gingrich after actually his policy proposals, it would seem to suggest that over the course of a months-long campaign, Newt would only rise in the polls, while others would stagnate or fall.

Clarus also confirmed the findings of many polls that the former Speaker is at the top of the list of Republican spokesman, trailing only 2008 GOP Presidential nominee John McCain and the man who was second to McCain when he dropped out, Romney, among Republican voters. A Gallup poll from May 2009, for example, found Gingrich tied with Rush Limbaugh for first.