Public Policy Polling will release a national poll Wednesday showing Newt above Perry

Big news today on Twitter. I'll have more about the poll when PPP releases the poll in full tomorrow.

Newt more popular than Perry and Romney in three polls from PPP

Public Policy Polling, after teasing these three polls the last few days, today released in full their latest surveys of Republican voters in North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia.

Newt is in second place in all three -- in second place all by himself except in North Carolina, where Romney ties him -- and Herman Cain is riding a good stretch to first place in all three.

Newt also out-ranks Perry and Romney in terms of favorability, which is simply the number of those who view a candidate favorably minus the number of those who view the candidate unfavorably.

North Carolina:

Newt: +27 (58/31)
Romney: +19 (50/31)
Perry: +7 (44/37)

Nebraska:

Newt: +17 (49/32)
Romney: +11 (45/34)
Perry: 0 (35/35)

West Virginia:

Newt: +24 (50/26)
Romney: +15 (42/27)
Perry: +13 (38/25

Newt's favorability in North Carolina, notes PPP, is up 28 points the last month.

More info from North Carolina:

-- Newt leads among moderates, 27% to 18% for Romney.

-- Newt's support is across the board: 53/30 among moderates, 60/30 among "somewhat conservative" voters, and 64/26 among "very conservative." Among men, he's at 62/31. Among women, he's at 53/30. He gets a greater share of his support from women, 18%, than men, 15%. (Will the media report that? Ha. Right.)

From Nebraska:

-- Newt, once again, leads moderates, 21% to 17% who are not sure and 15% for Cain.

-- Newt is at 46/31 among women and 53/34 among men. He draws 16% of the vote among males and females alike.

From West Virginia:

-- The moderate Republicans in this state, for whatever reason, like Perry and Romney much more than in other states. (Could be a small sample size problem, or maybe it's real.)

-- Women voters approve of Newt 40/26 and men approve of him 59/25. Once again, he receives equal support from the two genders, 18% from each.

Sorry for all the numbers, but there was a lot of good news in today's polls. Newt has plenty of room for growth in his overall support given his favorability numbers.

The fact that he is beating Romney among moderates in some states is very encouraging, as that means Newt is not just competing with Cain and Perry (and others) for the conservative vote. He can pluck a good portion of the moderate vote as well. No other candidate has shown the ability to appeal to both moderates and conservatives as well as Newt does in these polls.

Newt 2012 is on the upswing thanks to all the great supporters who stuck with Newt during rough times. But in order to turn out the vote in Iowa in three months (and quickly followed by New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida), Newt will need volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and money to get his message out.

For those of you in Iowa and New Hampshire, Newt will be opening up offices later this month.

More good polling news, from West Virginia and Nebraska (and North Carolina)

(Update: since I first published this, Public Policy Polling has released the headline numbers from their North Carolina poll. Newt is tied for second in the Tar Heel State.)

West Virginia and Nebraska, of course, are not going to be early primary states, but I think today's bit of polling news from Public Policy Polling is important.

What they found is that Newt is in second place in both states (WV link and NE link), trailing Herman Cain in both, and just as importantly, his favorability numbers are moving up.

PPP on Twitter:

Favorabilities with WV Republicans: Christie +43, Bachmann +25, Gingrich +24, Romney +15, Perry +13, Paul -20

@ppppolls:

Favorabilities with Nebraska Republicans: Christie +25, Gingrich +17, Bachmann +13, Romney +11, Perry even, Paul -21

They note Perry's collapse: his favorability among West Virginia Republicans was 52/9 a month ago. Today, it's 38/25.

None of this, of course, is final. But it means Newt is catching on, and when the new polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina come out, they are most likely going to reflect his upward movement.

We have to keep going, though, so if you can, go to Newt.org and contribute money or time. If you can't do either -- or have already given all you can -- please keep spreading the word to your friends and family. Feel free to forward any content to them, and if you have any questions, don't hesitate to contact me.

Today's PPP survey on Florida Republicans

On Monday, Public Policy Polling teased their upcoming poll of Florida Republicans. Today they released the full results. (To be clear, the poll was taken partially before last Thursday's debate and partially after.)

As they said on Monday, Newt is in third place, behind Romney and Perry. Newt's the only other Republican in double digits.

And a reason that Newt can expect to go up in the polls: his favorability in this poll, as I wrote Monday, is higher than Perry's. And Newt shows good numbers across the board: he's 43/37 among moderate GOPers, 54/26 among conservatives, and 72/22 among very conservative voters.

Perry is way under water among moderates, at 29/53.

Two great polls for Newt 2012

The headlines, rightfully, are going to Newt's standing in the latest CNN Poll, which has him at 10% with Sarah Palin included. That's good for third, and the only other candidate besides Romney and Perry in double digits.

But Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm, teased their full Florida GOP poll yesterday with two very positive tidbits:

Newt actually more popular with FL Republicans (+28 at 57/29) now than Perry is (+23 at 54/31) (Link)

Newt is the only Republican besides Romney and Perry in double digits in Florida. (Link)

There was also this one, which did not apply directly to Newt, but to how damaging the debate could have been for Perry:

Thursday night part of our Florida poll Romney led Perry by 2. Friday-Sunday part Romney led Perry by 10. Debate did matter.

Newt moving up in the polls

Today, Public Policy Polling released a new national 2012 GOP Presidential Primary poll. Newt was in a statistical tie with Ron Paul for third place. And this poll was taken before Monday's CNN Debate, which went very well for Newt.

Here is the story on Newt.org. While you're over there, why not sign up to volunteer or contribute some money?

This news, of course, right on the heels of Newt being endorsed by the head of the Columbia Tea Party in South Carolina.

Gregory Tapis on Twitter wrote in response to the poll:

@Newt2012HQ I think this is a result of your heavy involvement in social media, your conference call, and you amazing ability to debate.

My take on today's Iowa poll by PPP

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a new survey today of Iowa Republican voters.

Back in April, Newt was at 9%, good for fourth. Today he was at 12%, which is still fourth place. (One thing that is interesting, and goes against the media's "conventional wisdom, is that 21% of those polled have not formed an opinion of Newt, which is higher than both Sarah Palin (by 10 points) and Mitt Romney (by 6 points).

If Sarah Palin does not run, Newt's support rises to 15%, moving him to third.

Truthfully, however, there is no clear order after Mitt Romney. With Palin out of the race, it would probably be more accurate to say that the next three -- Hermain Cain, Newt, and Michelle Bachmann -- are tied for second. If Palin runs, the hierarchy is a little more clear but still muddled.

With Palin:

Romney: 21%
Cain: 15%
Palin: 15%
Gingrich: 12%
Bachmann: 11%
Pawlenty: 10%
Paul: 8%
Undecided: 8%

Without Palin:

Romney: 26%
Cain: 16%
Gingrich: 15%
Bachmann: 14%
Paul: 11%
Pawlenty: 10%
Undecided: 8%

While Romney is the frontrunner now, it is to be seen if his poll numbers will erode should he choose to, if not altogether skip Iowa, then downplay the first contest. Another factor is how much a drag Romneycare will be on him once more voters become aware of it.

The Ames Straw Poll on August 13 will be the first big test of the different campaigns' ability to organize their supporters. And in that regard, Newt -- according to both Craig Robinson and Kevin Hall of The Iowa Republican -- is at the top.

Hall, on May 23, wrote: "The other presidential candidates would love to be able to draw crowds the way Gingrich did last week."

Robinson, back in April, had this to say: "That story went out the window when nearly 200 people showed up on a Friday night to see a documentary that has played on FOX News numerous times. Turning out that kind of crowd on a Friday night in downtown Des Moines was impressive. It was also something most other potential 2012 candidate have yet to do in Iowa."

Robinson also wrote that if Newt can "meet or exceed expectations" at the Ames Straw Poll, "he could use the numerous debates that follow to propel his campaign to a victory in Iowa and elsewhere."

Roundup of some PPP polls without Huckabee and Palin

Mike Huckabee tonight has announced he will not run for the 2012 Republican nomination. And while Sarah Palin has not announced she will not, almost all indications point to her staying out of the race.

Thus, I will re-post some polls that Public Policy Polling (PPP) has conducted the past couple of months that did not include the two former Governors:

An early April poll of Florida:

Gingrich: 30%
Mitt Romney: 28%
Michelle Bachmann: 11%
Tim Pawlenty: 10%
Ron Paul: 9%

A mid-April poll of Iowa (in which Donald Trump was also not included):

Romney: 28%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 16%
Bachmann: 15%

A mid-March nationwide GOP poll:

Gingrich and Romney: 24%
Paul: 12%
Pawlenty: 6%
Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum 5%

May 10 nationwide GOP poll:

Romney: 28%
Gingrich: 26%
Paul: 12%
Bachmann: 11%

Iowa Poll tells a familiar story: Newt helped if Huckabee and Palin stay out

As numerous previous polls have shown, Newt -- having not run for President previously -- would be boosted should Mike Huckabee (a 2008 Presidential candidate himself) and Sarah Palin (the 2008 Vice Presidential candidate) do not run.

My guess is that Newt would be able to eat into the support of Huckabee and Palin even if they do decide to run -- meaning his candidacy is not doomed if one or both run -- but it would save a lot of time if they decide to not get into the race.

Here are the numbers from Public Policy Polling:

With Donald Trump, Huckabee, and Palin:

Huckabee: 27%
Romney: 16%
Trump: 14%
Gingrich: 9%

Without just Trump:

Huckabee: 30%
Romney: 18%
Gingrich: 12%
Palin: 12%

Without Huckabee and Trump:

Romney: 25%
Gingrich: 15%
Palin: 15%
Ron Paul: 15%

Without Trump, Huckabee, and Palin:

Romney: 28%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 16%
Michelle Bachmann: 15%

Trump is being hammered over some of his very liberal positions in the past by the Club for Growth, and now after Huckabee defended Trump against the pro-market group, Huckabee's past record of tax increases may get more play.

Romney also figures to drop in the poll as PPP found that just 11% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers would support someone who passed a state-level insurance mandate.

Latest Gingrich News: Busy day in New Hampshire next week, Iowa staff update, and a poll

-- Public Policy Polling conducted a poll pitting President Obama against likely GOP candidates. It did something new: it "allocat[ed] the undecideds based on their approval or disapproval of Obama," figuring that once the undecideds become acquainted with the Republican candidates they will back them.

When they did with the Gingrich v. Obama matchup, the President only led 54-46%. That is a very small lead and could easily be erased in the next 18 months.

-- John DiStato of the New Hampshire Union Leader reports on a event-filled day for Newt next week:

Newt Gingrich will return to the state next Wednesday for coffee in Bedford with family values leaders, private meetings in Concord, an appearance on WKXL's "Road to the White House" with Lamontagne and Dean Spiliotes, hosted by Chris Ryan, a mid-day stop at the Barley House in Concord, a private meeting with Tea Party leaders in Dover and an appearance at the NHGOP's new speaker series fund-raiser in Manchester.

-- Newt's Iowa staff will add Linda Upmeyer, the state house's Majority Leader and one of the first public officials to endorse Newt.

Kathie Obradovich tweeted an answer Upmeyer gave at a press conference yesterday that she will be joining Newt's campaign but does not yet know in what role.

Romney up in New Hampshire but could drop as more people find out about RomneyCare

Due to being a former Governor of a nearby state and a 2008 Presidential candidate, Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in New Hampshire, says a round of Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys.

But PPP finds that 61% of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters would not support a candidate "who supported a health insurance mandate at the state level" -- which is exactly what Romney did. Over the next few months, as more and more become aware of that fact, Romney figures to drop in the polls.

And even if holds onto the lead, it may not be enough. Romney, as I noted a few days ago, is banking on just staying relevant in Iowa and South Carolina, not actually winning. That strategy could only work if Romney scores a big victory in the Granite State, not by just a few points.

Newt the leader in Florida if Huckabee and Palin stay out

Public Policy Polling has a series of Florida GOP Primary polls out today. They conducted a poll that had both Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee in the field, one with just Palin, one with just Huckabee, one with neither, and one with both out.

Palin and Huckabee included:

Gingrich: 18%
Huckabee: 18%
Mitt Romney: 18%
Palin: 15%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Tim Pawlenty: 6%
Ron Paul: 6%

Palin but no Huckabee:

Gingrich: 24%
Romney: 23%
Palin: 14$
Paul: 9%

Huckabee but no Palin:

Huckabee: 24%
Gingrich: 22%
Romney: 22%
Bachmann: 9%

Neither Huckabee nor Palin:

Gingrich: 30%
Romney: 28%
Bachmann: 11%
Pawlenty: 10%
Paul: 9%

The results mirror other PPP polls insofar as Newt is the beneficiary if Huckabee and/or Palin do not run.

Jim DeMint will not run for President; South Carolina wide open.

With the news that conservative Senator Jim DeMint will not run for the Republican nomination -- which was never a great possibility -- it means that South Carolina will be a competitive primary. (Had DeMint entered the race, no other candidate would have challenged him in his home state.)

Mike Huckabee won the state in 2008, and is still strong in the state as well as in other Southern states. However, he seems to be leaning toward staying out of the race. As does Sarah Palin, who polls in third place in the Palmetto State without DeMint.

A February Public Policy Polling survey of South Carolina GOP voters showed:

Huckabee 26%
Romney 20%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 13%

Those numbers are very close to PPP's national numbers, and if South Carolina is the same as the national electorate, then Newt would be the biggest beneficiary of Huckabee and Palin staying out of the race. Nationally, Newt and Romney were tied when the two former Governors were not included. It seems very likely that Newt would be in a very similar situation, if not even better, in South Carolina.

PPP asked what Newt's path to the nomination would be a couple of weeks back. It would seem that without Huckabee and Palin, he would perhaps be the frontrunner in Iowa and South Carolina as of this moment. And if he could win those two states -- with Romney likely winning New Hampshire by a big margin -- he would have the early momentum, and all that goes along with that, including more money and volunteers.

Another piece of evidence that PPP is wrong about Newt's chances

Yesterday, I criticized Public Policy Polling'a analysis that said Newt had no path to the Republican nomination.

Their argument was that Newt had peaked in the polls because everyone knew who he was already, and so had no room for growth. I largely agreed with the point that he had very high name identification, but argued that Newt could persuade -- based on focus groups -- many people who may not be supporters at this moment.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released today puts another hole in PPP's case: it shows that 27% of the overall voting population -- not just Republican primary voters -- do not have an opinion of Newt. That is good news, even if his favorability/unfavorablity rating is negative, at 35-38.

If a person does not have a negative opinion of Newt -- after nearly twenty years of getting badgered in the national press -- then chances are they will not easily form a negative one of him.

If Newt simply broke even on the rest of the electorate, he would have 48-49% support. If the persuasion skills shown in those focus groups hold up, however, he could easily get into the low-to-mid 50s. And of course not every person in the 38% has a very strong negative opinion, meaning they could be brought over as well.

So once again, no one is arguing that Newt is the leader right now, which is the strawman that PPP seems to be attempting to slay. His path to the nomination -- and eventually a general election victory -- is building onto his established core support with enough of the undecided vote and those who have soft negative opinions of him.

The problem with Public Policy Polling's conclusions on Newt's chances

Today, Public Policy Polling (PPP) analyzed some of their GOP Primary poll results and concluded that Newt has a "tough road ahead."

Let me say that I think that PPP's polls are very accurate -- more importantly, the statistics back up their accuracy. And despite being a Democrat firm -- and being the uber-left Daily Kos' polling firm -- I don't think they have a bias; I trust their polling data.

Their analysis starts out accurately, in my opinion: they state that he is generally placing fourth right now in most polls -- "with just the occasional second or third place finish." Their polls and just about everyone else's polling data says that.

However, then they conclude that Newt will not be able to improve because, chiefly, "his name recognition is already at 70 to 80% in most states." Most people do know him, and so on the surface it might appear has though he has peaked.

But what PPP does not point out is that the three ahead of him currently -- Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee -- either ran for President or Vice President in 2008, and so also have high name identification and more people are familiar with their speeches and policies. After all, Romney and Huckabee campaigned for a year each, and Palin was a huge story for the last stretch of that election.

Newt, on the other hand, has not run for office since 1998, and while most people still know of him, have not watched him on Fox News, read his books (even if they are best-sellers), or read his newsletters. Their recollection of him may be colored by his confrontational Speakership.

Plus, we have evidence that once people actually hear Newt's ideas and the way he presents them, they become supporters, even if they had been fully aware of him before. I once again will quote Matthew Continetti, who wrote in 2007:

Gingrich continues to enjoy a gut connection with Republican voters. Back in 2005, consultant Frank Luntz held focus groups in Iowa and New Hampshire on the Republican candidates. In a report published afterward, Luntz wrote, 'We were genuinely surprised by the strongly favorable reaction' to Gingrich's 'speeches and interviews.' According to Luntz, voters ignored, or in some cases forgot, the controversial nature of Gingrich's speakership. 'The words he spoke were like nothing they had heard from anyone else,' Luntz went on. 'While he didn't start either session with any measurable support, he ended both Iowa and New Hampshire sessions with the most new converts.' Out of office, Gingrich has remained largely insulated from the scandals and debacles of the Bush Republicans. In fact, the 2006 midterm election results could be viewed as confirmation of what Gingrich has been saying for some time: that the Republican party and broader conservative movement have lost their way, and the time has come for a rebirth of the reform impulse that in 1994 brought the GOP to congressional majority status for the first time in 40 years.

More recently, Luntz held a focus group in Iowa:

They liked a video of Gingrich effectively blasting the national debt and the radical fixes proposed by Obama’s debt commission, like ending the home mortgage deduction. One panel member says, 'We want to see him dismantle Obama in the debates, and he can do it.' Luntz’s own conclusion is, 'Principles matter more than pragmatism to these voters, and principles with solid debating skills matter most.'

(Thank you to splicd.com)

Once again, those voters in Iowa assuredly knew who Gingrich was before -- and coming in it was doubtful he had the most support -- but after listening to Newt, Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and every other possible Republican running, he won. (What's remarkable is that Romney was one of the first "eliminated" in the focus group."

Gingrich in 2nd place, says PPP.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) releasaed a poll Tuesday showing that Sarah Palin, at 21%, is first among Republicans, with Newt Gingrich's 19% support in second. Mitt Romney is narrowly behind at 18 and Mike Huckabee gets 16% of likely primary voter support.

The last such poll done by PPP had Romney at 22%, Huckabee at 21%, Gingrich at 18%, and Palin at 17%.

Gallup memo: Most wide open GOP field since '72

A new Gallup Poll has the four GOP front-runners -- Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich -- bunched up between 19 and 13 percent. Romney and Palin both draw 19% support; Huckabee, 16; and Gingrich at 13. Romney and Palin's support has not changed since September, while Huckabee and Gingrich have each gained four percentage points in the two months.

Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones writes of the race at this very early part, "The current results on Republicans' presidential nomination preferences suggest the 2012 contest could be more wide open than any since the winners began to be determined largely through state primaries and caucuses in 1972."

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post quotes a GOP consultant who worked on Romney's 2008 Presidential campaign as saying, "There has never been a field as wide open as this one is. Ever."

The liberal website Talking Points Memo put together the results of a series of Public Policy Polling polls, and they illustrate just how jumbled the race is.

More Quick Hits

From CNN's website:

Next month the former House Speaker makes a high profile visit to South Carolina, another important early voting state in the presidential primary calendar. According to a GOP source, Gingrich keynotes the Spartanburg Republican Party's Bronze Elephant Dinner on December 16.

In their latest analysis of their polls, Public Policy Polling writes:

Newt Gingrich's one and only lead in this round of 18 polls comes from North Carolina where he gets 23% to 19% for Huckabee and Palin and 14% for Romney. Meanwhile Huckabee matches his largest lead in any individual state in Kentucky where he gets 26% to 19% for Palin, 17% for Gingrich, and 13% for Romney. Gingrich and Huckabee splitting these two states is somewhat emblematic of the fact that for either to win the GOP nomination may take the other not running since a strong across the board performance in the South would be vital for both of their chances.

"The Gingrich Surge"

So says Matthew Continetti of The Weekly Standard, who wrote a cover story about Newt Gingrich in March 2007.

He notes that from March 21 to April 11, Gingrich gained six points in the CNN Republican primary polling data. "What's fascinating, though, is Newt Gingrich's surge into the top tier of presidential prospects," writes Continetti. "He's gained six points in a month, and is only one point behind Palin. His favorable number is about the same as Palin's, but his unfavorable number is significantly less....As for Gingrich, the poll definitely suggests a presidential bid could gain some traction."

Another poll also shows good news for Newt -- and the other Republican frontrunners. Public Policy Polling (PPP) pitted President Obama against Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin. Huckabee, by 47-45%, has the best numbers currently. Gingrich is tied with the President, 45-45%, while Romney is up 45-44%. Sarah Palin is down just two points, 47-45%.

That suggests two things: 1) Gingrich, due to a great rehabilitation on his part, is not nearly the divisive figure some still try to paint him as; and 2) Obama is in great trouble.

Newt to campaign in Pennsylvania special election

In the election to fill the late John Murtha's House seat, Newt Gingrich will stump for businessman Tim Burns, who, according to the Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP), is currently in the lead, 44-41%.

The district, PA-12, leans Republican -- R+1 -- and the only reason Murtha had such a commanding grip on the seat was because he was the king of pork.

The election, to be held on May 18, will be a good indicator of what to expect come November.