Tuesday, December 6, 2011

PPP Iowa survey: Newt 27, Paul 18, Romney 16

This confirms the two weekend polls in Iowa more or less.

Newt's favorability: 62-31%.

When asked who has the best chance to defeat Obama, 33% answered Newt and 22% answered Romney.

Public Policy Polling asked this question, which is basically a question on Newt's immigration position:
Do you think people who have immigrated to the United States illegally but have lived here 25 years, have paid taxes, and have obeyed the law should be deported or not?
Only 29% answered they should be deported. 44% said they should not. So it doesn't appear Newt's position is going to hurt him much.

Newt's not winning only because of his debate performance. He wins among those who have paid "a lot of attention," "some attention," and "not much attention at all" to the debates.

Newt is tied for first among those who are between 18 and 29 years old with Paul and Romney. Newt is second, 3 points behind Paul, among the 30-45 year old group. Newt leads with 46-65 year olds as well as 66 and up. Newt's best age group is the 66-and-up, winning 37% to Romney's 18%.

Newt is four points behind Romney and Paul among moderates, but blows them away among conservative and very conservative voters. Earlier "non-Romneys" were not able to hang that close to Romney among moderates.

There's a great deal of overlap, but the split between the tea party and non-tea party vote tells a similar story. Newt gets 35% of those inside the movement, Bachmann 23, Paul 14, Romney 4(!).

But whereas Cain, Perry, and Bachmann may have beat Romney by similar margins among tea party voters, Romney only beats Newt by one point among those who are not in the tea party. That margin was much wider with Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.

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