Sunday, October 16, 2011

Blog post: Four Reasons the nominee will be Newt or Cain

(Well, we know which of those two it will be, right?)

In a very interesting piece, Doug Deal writes:
By antagonizing their opponents too vigorously, pretty much every candidate has done something to lose a little second choice standing with voters. Every candidate except Newt. I think that this is a very deliberate strategy to pick up voters as their candidates drop out or become otherwise unattractive. If timed properly, Newt could be in a very good position after the shakeup that will come after the early primaries.
Success has a way of building on itself. It is mainly an expectations game. As people see that you are doing better, they expect you to do better in the future, and this biases opinion. Both Gingrich and Cain are jumping in the polls, which buys them free press and a certain buzz. Voters begin to think that these guys can win and that attracts even more support. They say that everyone loves a winner, but the truth is that they also love someone who looks like they can win just as much, maybe more.
You can read the full piece here.

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