Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Newt at 22% in North Carolina and 18% in Maine, says Public Policy Polling

North Carolina:
Cain -- 30%
Gingrich -- 22%
Romney -- 19%
Perry -- 10%
Bachmann -- 4%
Paul -- 4%
Santorum -- 2%
Huntsman -- 2%
Cain -- 29%
Romney -- 24%
Gingrich -- 18%
Bachmann --5%
Paul -- 5%
Perry -- 4%
Santorum - 2%
Huntsman -- 1%
Johnson -- 1%
PPP writes: "[T]here's plenty of reason to think that there will indeed be a Cain collapse. Cain may have led in these states over the weekend, but his support continues to be pretty soft. Only 46% of Cain's supporters in North Carolina and a paltry 25% in Maine said they were strongly committed to voting for him. A lot of Cain's supporters were already highly susceptible to abandoning him -- whether the recent allegations cause them to do so is still anybody's guess."

They also write: "It's no surprise that Gingrich would be the beneficiary of a Cain collapse, because Tea Party voters have been the foundation of Cain's surge and Newt polled second with that group of GOP loyalists on both of our polls over the weekend."

In North Carolina, Newt's favorability with Tea Party voters is 83/14. Romney is just 49/42, with Perry at 48/42.

In Maine, Newt is seen favorably by Tea Party members 75/19. Romney is at 53/36, and Perry is 35/47.

On Perry, PPP writes:
Even more problematic for him than his low level of support is how unpopular he's become with GOP voters -- in Maine his favorability is 34/47 and in North Carolina it's 39/41. He's not going to get back into the race just because other candidates falter -- his image has been hurt too much for that to be the case. He's really going to have to redefine himself in the eyes of the voters to get it turned around.
Newt had similar favorability numbers over the summer -- but by being great in the debates, laying out bold solutions, and not attacking other candidates, his favorability numbers have gone way up.

Perry, on the other hand, does not figure to start doing too great at debates (he may improve, but I doubt he does by too much), has just a fraction of Newt's solutions, and seems intent on attacking Romney and Cain. That's not a recipe to improve how he is viewed.

I'll do another post on the PPP surveys later.

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