Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Iowa Poll tells a familiar story: Newt helped if Huckabee and Palin stay out

As numerous previous polls have shown, Newt -- having not run for President previously -- would be boosted should Mike Huckabee (a 2008 Presidential candidate himself) and Sarah Palin (the 2008 Vice Presidential candidate) do not run.

My guess is that Newt would be able to eat into the support of Huckabee and Palin even if they do decide to run -- meaning his candidacy is not doomed if one or both run -- but it would save a lot of time if they decide to not get into the race.

Here are the numbers from Public Policy Polling:

With Donald Trump, Huckabee, and Palin:
Huckabee: 27%
Romney: 16%
Trump: 14%
Gingrich: 9%
Without just Trump:
Huckabee: 30%
Romney: 18%
Gingrich: 12%
Palin: 12%
Without Huckabee and Trump:
Romney: 25%
Gingrich: 15%
Palin: 15%
Ron Paul: 15%
Without Trump, Huckabee, and Palin:
Romney: 28%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 16%
Michelle Bachmann: 15%
Trump is being hammered over some of his very liberal positions in the past by the Club for Growth, and now after Huckabee defended Trump against the pro-market group, Huckabee's past record of tax increases may get more play.

Romney also figures to drop in the poll as PPP found that just 11% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers would support someone who passed a state-level insurance mandate.

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