Sunday, June 26, 2011

The First Des Moines Register Poll

The Des Moines-Register poll has almost a folk lore around it. It is always printed in the Sunday edition of the paper, and in the Internet age, the poll is posted online Saturday night. When it was announced last week that the first such poll of this campaign would be released Saturday, it made big news among those watching the GOP nomination.

The results:
Mitt Romney: 23%
Michelle Bachmann: 22%
Herman Cain: 10%
Newt Gingrich: 7%
Ron Paul: 7%
Tim Pawlenty: 4%
Jon Huntsman: 2%
More extensive polling data has yet to be released, but if those were the only candidates who received support, then 25% of Iowa Republicans are undecided.

This leaves an interesting dilemma for Romney. He has previously tried to keep expectations in the Hawkeye State down, almost to the point of saying he will not seriously compete. He and his campaign have tried to argue that he is not a good match for Iowa because he is seen suspiciously by many conservatives. However, by being in the lead in this poll, he takes the risk of looking weak should he not heavily fight for Iowa.

Is Bachmann going to be able to keep her high support, or will her poll numbers come back down some, just as Cain's did after the memories of his debate performance last month faded?

Newt has had a rough couple of weeks of press coverage, yet he still is in the running. If in fact he has finally turned the corner from the staff and other issues -- and the news that his fundraising has started to rebound is a big indicator he may have -- and the stories about him revolve more around his policies and record as a conservative reformer, then he will rise back up. From different reports, he and the campaign staff still with him seem much more comfortable since the staff shakeup. The reason is that they have all been together for a few years at American Solutions -- the ones who quit were very new additions -- and some of the replacements for those who resigned were also from "Newt World."

No comments:

Post a Comment

This page is not affiliated with any political campaign or party.

  © Blogger template Webnolia by 2009

Back to TOP