Saturday, September 17, 2011

InsiderAdvantage Florida poll and NYT/CBS National poll

The two most recent polls (as far as i know) have been a poll of just Florida by InsiderAdvantage and a national poll by The New York Times and CBS.

The Florida results, again taken before the latest debate, showed Newt in third place. 21.1% of the respondents were undecided.

The NYT/CBS poll, which was partially conducted before the debate as well as after, show Newt tied for third with Michelle Bachmann, with 22% undecided.

The Florida poll did not ask (or at least the results are not on the above link), but the national poll asked how committed those asked were to their candidate of choice. What the numbers show is that the support for both Romney and Perry is anything but firm, with Perry having an edge over the former Massachusetts Governor. But combined with the undecideds totaling about a a fifth of the electorate, there is clearly plenty of room for Newt to gain should he and his campaign keep the momentum going. (That also does not the supporters of candidates who may end up dropping out of the race.)

What's clear from these two polls and others from the past week: Newt is moving up, either tied or leading Bachmann in each. And that while Perry and Romney are leading at this moment -- just as Bachmann was a month ago and Donald Trump was five months ago -- they are not locked in by any means.

And of course, with the better poll numbers, more people will step forward to give money to Newt 2012 or give their time. Which, in turn, will drive up the numbers. Which will lead to more contributions and volunteers. Which...well, you get the idea.

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