Digging deeper into today's polls

The headlines from today's poll are, deservedly, that Newt is basically in a statistical tie for first place nationally and Iowa.

But there is plenty of other good news in the polls that suggests Newt has plenty of room to keep improving. His favorability, according to Public Policy Polling's poll, is by far the best in the GOP field:

Newt: 68 favorable/23 unfavorable
Cain: 57/31
Romney: 48/39
Bachmann: 40/41
Perry: 35/49

Romney's favorability numbers is at a six-month low.

Newt is seen favorably by Cain voters 73/21. They view Romney 33/55 and Perry 32/53.

Women view Newt favorably 67/21. Men view Newt 69/26. Newt gets the support of 31% of women surveyed and 26% of men.

Those darn women voters just cannot stand him!

Across age groups:

18 to 29: 64-36%
30-45: 60-30%
46-65: 73-18%
65 and older: 69-23%

No other candidate is above water with all age groups.

CNN's poll finds Newt's favorability with all adult Americans is 36/39, which has improved from 30/44 since June. Romney is the best but only at 39/35. Ron Paul is at 32/34.

They find Newt's favorability rating to be 61/21.

Newt's favorability with all adult males to be 39/39. With women, it's 33/39.

Recap of today's polling news

The great polling news continued today:

Public Policy Polling has the race looking like this:

Newt: 28%

Cain: 25%

Romney: 18%

CNN:

Romney: 24%

Newt: 22%

Cain: 14%

Perry: 12%

Paul: 8%

Bachmann: 6%

Poll Position asked who people would vote for in a one-on-one matchup:

Newt 56/ Cain - 30%

Newt 57/Romney 24%

An Iowa poll:

Cain: 20%

Gingrich: 19%

Romney: 14%

“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney."

This was written before Newt's great polling news Friday -- so it understates his current position -- but it's still very good.

From the Washington Times:

“I definitely think it ends up Newt versus [former Massachusetts Gov.] Mitt Romney at some point after the caucuses and primaries are under way,” said Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, a Republican who has endorsed the Georgian in her state’s key January caucuses.

“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney,” said Polk County, Iowa, GOP Chairman Daryl Kearney. “All national polls now have Newt with a solid hold on third place.”

“Evangelicals will definitely go for Newt if he is the nominee,” insisted Jim Garlow, credited with organizing the evangelicals in the drive to pass a same-sex marriage ban in California. “I used to hear them say, ‘He’s the smartest one in the room, but he has personal issues.’ I’ve seen an enormous shift in the past four or five months. They no longer talk about personal issues, but about intelligence and capability of being president.”

Mr. Garlow, senior pastor of the Skyline Wesleyan Church in San Diego, said if the nomination fight came down to Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich, “I’m guessing 80 [percent] to 90 percent of the evangelical vote in America would go to Newt. Romney’s Mormonism may be a factor, but the reason I hear most is they don’t trust Romney on abortion, marriage, economics and health care.”

“I think, no question, evangelicals will go for Newt if it comes down to him and Romney,” said Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Director Steve Scheffler, credited with organizing support for Pat Robertson’s stunning second-place finish in the 1988 Iowa caucuses. “Evangelicals are concerned with personal conduct, but most will judge people on their present conduct, and they have concluded Newt’s present lifestyle is exemplary.”

On the primary calendar and the new RNC rules:

Under the Republican nominating calendar, no candidate can mathematically accumulate the 1,143 delegates required to win at the August presidential nominating convention until March 24 at the earliest, according to an analysis by The Washington Times.

Even that date is unlikely because before April 3, no state can have a winner-take-all primary or caucuses — they must all award delegates proportionately by congressional districts. Sweeping even one state’s delegates, much less the 30 contests scheduled through March 24, is practically impossible in a fully contested race.

"[A] lot of [South Carolina] Tea Party folks are migrating towards Newt."

From FoxNews.com:

The Republican presidential primary race is still fluid in the Palmetto State, but some in the grassroots are starting to get their hearts set on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Lin Bennett, chairwoman of the Charleston Republican Party, hasn't decided which candidate she'll support but observes, "a lot of state Tea Party folks are migrating towards Newt."

"That just tells me a lot of vetting is beginning to happen," says Bennett, pointing to the Tea Party activists' reputation for being tough and thorough judges of politicians' conservative records before deciding whom to back and whom to oppose.

A hundred miles north on the South Carolina coastline, a similar sentiment seems to be forming. Gingrich won an unusual straw poll held at the Rotelli's pizza and pasta restaurant in Myrtle Beach where an estimated 85 to 100 top local Republicans gathered to watch the CNBC debate Wednesday. Their opinion of who won the debate, as counted by an informal paper ballot, broke down as follows:

Newt 57%

Cain 25%

Romney 16%

Paul 2%

Bachmann, Huntsman, Perry, Santorum 0%

Participating in the straw poll were members of the Horry County Republican Party, Carolina Forest Republican Club, South Strand Republican Club, Northern Horry Republican Club, the Myrtle Beach Tea Party and Carolina Patriots - a combination of both establishment and grassroots conservatives. A second question on the ballot - who is your choice for the Republican candidate - produced the following result:

Newt 52%

Cain 36%

Paul 11%

Santorum 2%

Newt's "Iowa Relaunch"

Jason Clayworth writes:

Newt Gingrich is preparing an Iowa campaign relaunch of sorts, hiring up to six campaign staffers and opening two campaign headquarters this month: One in Des Moines and one in Iowa City.

He’ll additionally hit the campaign trail in Iowa for about 30 days between now and the Jan. 3 caucuses, R.C. Hammond, his national spokesman said today.

“There’s a priority. It’s Iowa,” Hammond said.

...

Gingrich will campaign in Iowa Monday through Wednesday and return again on Nov. 19th to participate in the Family Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum.

“Herman Cain is holding on in Iowa, but barely.”

Matt Towery, who does polls for InsiderAdvantage:

“Herman Cain is holding on in Iowa, but barely,” said InsiderAdvantage head Matt Towery. “He is still in the thick of it, but he is not doing well with the female vote.”

"The Tea Party Case for Newt Gingrich"

Kevin Tharp:

Conservatives want and need a candidate who can enunciate, persuade, and encourage the implementation of conservative principles. That takes some experience. But we need a candidate who can implement conservative executive policy and legislative initiatives well. Mr. Cain says he always evaluates the problem and then surrounds himself with the right people to get the job done. Do we have time for his evaluating process? Will he really know the best people for the job? Or will he bring in other people with no Washington experience? We don't have time for another president who has to come down a learning curve or needs on-the-job training.

There is a candidate who can do these things. He can eloquently expound on conservative principles. And he has already been a participant in the conservative revolution of the '80s and was the leader of the conservative revolution in the '90s. We need someone who can lead another conservative revolution now. And that man is Newt Gingrich. Is Newt perfect? No. Has he made compromises in the past? When you are working with a Democrat president and Senate, some compromise is going to be necessary. Does anyone really think Newt would implement cap and trade? Not likely. Plus the climate science is radically different now. Newt has a lifetime ACU rating of 90. That is conservative.

Newt "reminded me that real conservatism is anti-establishment"

From PeachPundit.com:

I had the opportunity to meet with Gingrich in Atlanta last week, and it is clear things have changed in the campaign. He is again surrounded with staff, and there is a certain buzz & energy about their business. New polls show Gingrich in third place, behind Cain and Romney, but ahead of Perry and the others. There also seemed to be the discipline that was so lacking under the former structure. Gingrich is once again poised to make a move in this race.

For this to happen, however, he must convince the voters currently backing Cain, Perry, and Bachmann that he can be the “anti-establishment” candidate. I asked him how someone who was once Speaker of the House becomes anti-establishment. He reminded me that real conservatism is anti-establishment, just as Reagan was the anti-establishment candidate when he ran, and further argued that Reagan was still anti-establishment when he left office. He believes the ideas in his new Contract With America are sufficiently anti-establishment, and that as voters learn about them, he’ll be able present a choice that is a break with the status quo.

Pictures from Newt in South Carolina on Saturday, including the opening of the HQ

Newt 2012's South Carolina State Director, Adam Waldeck, sent out two pictures of Newt talking with Furman University Students:

Link to picture.

Link to picture.

And then two of the crowd in Greenville for the opening of the South Carolina headquarters:

Link.

Picture.

Mark Halperin of Time gives Newt the best grade from Saturday's CBS debate

Mark Halperin of Timegave Newt the best grade from tonight's debate:

Gingrich

Style: Confident, droll, pure Newt. Avoided taking on his rivals, even when asked explicitly to do so, instead cleverly and honestly praising them (following the current Republican rules of combat and looking like a grown-up as a bonus). But showed a tendency to overdo the jargon.

Substance: His best debate yet at playing the smartest person on the stage. Gave a sweeping, point-by-point answer on how to deal with Iran.

His worst moment: None stood out.

His best moment: Lit up the room with his tough talk on the war on terror.

The main thing: Still flaunting his knowledge rather than taking on Romney. Seems to feel that Newt being Newt is enough to win — given his recent success and upswing — and that isn't a crazy notion. But he has done nothing to shore up his vulnerabilities, leaving him wide open when and if Mitt needs to go negative on the former Speaker.

Grade: A-