Link to poll.
Newt's favorability: 73-13%.
15% list Newt as their second choice, second only to Romney at 18, meaning Newt still could move up.
Newt beats Romney by 47 points among very conservative voters and by 17 among moderates.
Newt's worst age group? 18-29. He's "only" at 63-32 with them.
Showing posts with label North Carolina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Carolina. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
How might the field look like if Cain drops off?
In my earlier post, I quoted Public Policy Polling as to why they feel that Newt will be the main beneficiary if Herman Cain -- for any number of reasons -- drops in the polls.
The reasons are: Newt is popular with Cain's voters (he's the second choice of a plurality of Cain supporters) and Perry is simply not very popular with Republican voters right now, with more Republicans viewing it unfavorably than favorably in several polls.
So updating my thought experiment from yesterday, I will take a shot at seeing what the polls might look like if Cain falls off. In the North Carolina poll from today, 46% of Cain's supporters say they are firmly with him. If the bottom really falls out of his campaign, even those people would leave, but let's just give him the benefit of the doubt. That means 54% -- 16.2% -- would leave him. Newt's the second choice of 29% of those, which means he would see a boost of about 4.7%. So his new total would be 26.7%.
Doing the same for the rest of the field in North Carolina:
In Maine, only 25% of Cain's supporters are strongly committed to him. Dividing up Cain's supporters gives these results:
The reasons are: Newt is popular with Cain's voters (he's the second choice of a plurality of Cain supporters) and Perry is simply not very popular with Republican voters right now, with more Republicans viewing it unfavorably than favorably in several polls.
So updating my thought experiment from yesterday, I will take a shot at seeing what the polls might look like if Cain falls off. In the North Carolina poll from today, 46% of Cain's supporters say they are firmly with him. If the bottom really falls out of his campaign, even those people would leave, but let's just give him the benefit of the doubt. That means 54% -- 16.2% -- would leave him. Newt's the second choice of 29% of those, which means he would see a boost of about 4.7%. So his new total would be 26.7%.
Doing the same for the rest of the field in North Carolina:
Newt: 26.7%That doesn't factor in the undecideds -- which figure to break for Newt as well, based on his favorability numbers and other positives for Newt.
Romney: 21.5%
Cain: 13.8%
Perry: 12.4%
Bachmann: 5.4%
In Maine, only 25% of Cain's supporters are strongly committed to him. Dividing up Cain's supporters gives these results:
Romney: 27.7%Doing static analysis like this is not perfect, of course, but it gives a decent look at the field might look.
Newt: 23.7%
Cain: 7.3%
Perry: 7.3%
Newt at 22% in North Carolina and 18% in Maine, says Public Policy Polling
North Carolina:
They also write: "It's no surprise that Gingrich would be the beneficiary of a Cain collapse, because Tea Party voters have been the foundation of Cain's surge and Newt polled second with that group of GOP loyalists on both of our polls over the weekend."
In North Carolina, Newt's favorability with Tea Party voters is 83/14. Romney is just 49/42, with Perry at 48/42.
In Maine, Newt is seen favorably by Tea Party members 75/19. Romney is at 53/36, and Perry is 35/47.
On Perry, PPP writes:
Perry, on the other hand, does not figure to start doing too great at debates (he may improve, but I doubt he does by too much), has just a fraction of Newt's solutions, and seems intent on attacking Romney and Cain. That's not a recipe to improve how he is viewed.
I'll do another post on the PPP surveys later.
Cain -- 30%Maine:
Gingrich -- 22%
Romney -- 19%
Perry -- 10%
Bachmann -- 4%
Paul -- 4%
Santorum -- 2%
Huntsman -- 2%
Cain -- 29%PPP writes: "[T]here's plenty of reason to think that there will indeed be a Cain collapse. Cain may have led in these states over the weekend, but his support continues to be pretty soft. Only 46% of Cain's supporters in North Carolina and a paltry 25% in Maine said they were strongly committed to voting for him. A lot of Cain's supporters were already highly susceptible to abandoning him -- whether the recent allegations cause them to do so is still anybody's guess."
Romney -- 24%
Gingrich -- 18%
Bachmann --5%
Paul -- 5%
Perry -- 4%
Santorum - 2%
Huntsman -- 1%
Johnson -- 1%
They also write: "It's no surprise that Gingrich would be the beneficiary of a Cain collapse, because Tea Party voters have been the foundation of Cain's surge and Newt polled second with that group of GOP loyalists on both of our polls over the weekend."
In North Carolina, Newt's favorability with Tea Party voters is 83/14. Romney is just 49/42, with Perry at 48/42.
In Maine, Newt is seen favorably by Tea Party members 75/19. Romney is at 53/36, and Perry is 35/47.
On Perry, PPP writes:
Even more problematic for him than his low level of support is how unpopular he's become with GOP voters -- in Maine his favorability is 34/47 and in North Carolina it's 39/41. He's not going to get back into the race just because other candidates falter -- his image has been hurt too much for that to be the case. He's really going to have to redefine himself in the eyes of the voters to get it turned around.Newt had similar favorability numbers over the summer -- but by being great in the debates, laying out bold solutions, and not attacking other candidates, his favorability numbers have gone way up.
Perry, on the other hand, does not figure to start doing too great at debates (he may improve, but I doubt he does by too much), has just a fraction of Newt's solutions, and seems intent on attacking Romney and Cain. That's not a recipe to improve how he is viewed.
I'll do another post on the PPP surveys later.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Newt more popular than Perry and Romney in three polls from PPP
Public Policy Polling, after teasing these three polls the last few days, today released in full their latest surveys of Republican voters in North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia.
Newt is in second place in all three -- in second place all by himself except in North Carolina, where Romney ties him -- and Herman Cain is riding a good stretch to first place in all three.
Newt also out-ranks Perry and Romney in terms of favorability, which is simply the number of those who view a candidate favorably minus the number of those who view the candidate unfavorably.
North Carolina:
More info from North Carolina:
-- Newt leads among moderates, 27% to 18% for Romney.
-- Newt's support is across the board: 53/30 among moderates, 60/30 among "somewhat conservative" voters, and 64/26 among "very conservative." Among men, he's at 62/31. Among women, he's at 53/30. He gets a greater share of his support from women, 18%, than men, 15%. (Will the media report that? Ha. Right.)
From Nebraska:
-- Newt, once again, leads moderates, 21% to 17% who are not sure and 15% for Cain.
-- Newt is at 46/31 among women and 53/34 among men. He draws 16% of the vote among males and females alike.
From West Virginia:
-- The moderate Republicans in this state, for whatever reason, like Perry and Romney much more than in other states. (Could be a small sample size problem, or maybe it's real.)
-- Women voters approve of Newt 40/26 and men approve of him 59/25. Once again, he receives equal support from the two genders, 18% from each.
Sorry for all the numbers, but there was a lot of good news in today's polls. Newt has plenty of room for growth in his overall support given his favorability numbers.
The fact that he is beating Romney among moderates in some states is very encouraging, as that means Newt is not just competing with Cain and Perry (and others) for the conservative vote. He can pluck a good portion of the moderate vote as well. No other candidate has shown the ability to appeal to both moderates and conservatives as well as Newt does in these polls.
Newt 2012 is on the upswing thanks to all the great supporters who stuck with Newt during rough times. But in order to turn out the vote in Iowa in three months (and quickly followed by New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida), Newt will need volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and money to get his message out.
For those of you in Iowa and New Hampshire, Newt will be opening up offices later this month.
Newt is in second place in all three -- in second place all by himself except in North Carolina, where Romney ties him -- and Herman Cain is riding a good stretch to first place in all three.
Newt also out-ranks Perry and Romney in terms of favorability, which is simply the number of those who view a candidate favorably minus the number of those who view the candidate unfavorably.
North Carolina:
Newt: +27 (58/31)Nebraska:
Romney: +19 (50/31)
Perry: +7 (44/37)
Newt: +17 (49/32)West Virginia:
Romney: +11 (45/34)
Perry: 0 (35/35)
Newt: +24 (50/26)Newt's favorability in North Carolina, notes PPP, is up 28 points the last month.
Romney: +15 (42/27)
Perry: +13 (38/25
More info from North Carolina:
-- Newt leads among moderates, 27% to 18% for Romney.
-- Newt's support is across the board: 53/30 among moderates, 60/30 among "somewhat conservative" voters, and 64/26 among "very conservative." Among men, he's at 62/31. Among women, he's at 53/30. He gets a greater share of his support from women, 18%, than men, 15%. (Will the media report that? Ha. Right.)
From Nebraska:
-- Newt, once again, leads moderates, 21% to 17% who are not sure and 15% for Cain.
-- Newt is at 46/31 among women and 53/34 among men. He draws 16% of the vote among males and females alike.
From West Virginia:
-- The moderate Republicans in this state, for whatever reason, like Perry and Romney much more than in other states. (Could be a small sample size problem, or maybe it's real.)
-- Women voters approve of Newt 40/26 and men approve of him 59/25. Once again, he receives equal support from the two genders, 18% from each.
Sorry for all the numbers, but there was a lot of good news in today's polls. Newt has plenty of room for growth in his overall support given his favorability numbers.
The fact that he is beating Romney among moderates in some states is very encouraging, as that means Newt is not just competing with Cain and Perry (and others) for the conservative vote. He can pluck a good portion of the moderate vote as well. No other candidate has shown the ability to appeal to both moderates and conservatives as well as Newt does in these polls.
Newt 2012 is on the upswing thanks to all the great supporters who stuck with Newt during rough times. But in order to turn out the vote in Iowa in three months (and quickly followed by New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida), Newt will need volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and money to get his message out.
For those of you in Iowa and New Hampshire, Newt will be opening up offices later this month.
Friday, March 25, 2011
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