Des Moines Register: "Gingrich takes steps toward a presidential run"

Gingrich made a quote to a Texas NBC station that him and wife Callista were "organizing" their enterprises to clear the way for a run last week.

In a column by Thomas Beaumont of the Des Moines Register, Newt once again talks of having to organize them in such a way to make a run at the White House. Beaumont writes, "Gingrich did not take similar steps to deal with his personal and business arrangements before ruling out a 2008 run, aides said."

Joe Gaylord, "Gingrich’s closest political counsel," said that he "would be very surprised" if there is not a Gingrich candidacy. "Does he want to run? You bet. Does he think he can figure out a way to do that? Yes. But he’s got to go through all the processes to make sure he can do it financially," Gaylord said.

Beaumont then sketched a possible outline of a campaign: "Gaylord, an Iowa native, likely would play the role of senior adviser in a Gingrich presidential campaign. Sam Dawson, another longtime Gingrich operative who was part of the 1994 House majority victory, also would be expected to take on a national campaign leadership role, aides said."

Estimating that he spoke to 39,000 people while campaigning for the mid-term elections, Gingrich said, "I have some sense for what’s working and what isn’t....We haven’t had the kind of sweeping reform capability that is survivable since Reagan."

"Gingrich plans to test the reaction to the themes when he addresses the Republican Governors Association meeting in San Diego this week and during four Web-based policy seminars," Beaumont added.

More Quick Hits

From CNN's website:

Next month the former House Speaker makes a high profile visit to South Carolina, another important early voting state in the presidential primary calendar. According to a GOP source, Gingrich keynotes the Spartanburg Republican Party's Bronze Elephant Dinner on December 16.

In their latest analysis of their polls, Public Policy Polling writes:

Newt Gingrich's one and only lead in this round of 18 polls comes from North Carolina where he gets 23% to 19% for Huckabee and Palin and 14% for Romney. Meanwhile Huckabee matches his largest lead in any individual state in Kentucky where he gets 26% to 19% for Palin, 17% for Gingrich, and 13% for Romney. Gingrich and Huckabee splitting these two states is somewhat emblematic of the fact that for either to win the GOP nomination may take the other not running since a strong across the board performance in the South would be vital for both of their chances.

Quick Hits

MFrom the New York Times:

Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, is one of the biggest variables. Mr. Gingrich has not been openly buttonholing major donors for a presidential bid, fund-raisers said. Nevertheless, all the work he has been doing for his policy center, American Solutions, generating large contributions (the group is permitted to take in donations of unlimited size) and building donor lists, could form a strong financial foundation for a run.

From National Journal:

On NBC's 'Meet the Press,' former House GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich said that he would make a decision about running 'around February,' and that if he did decide to seek the presidency he would probably announce in 'late March.' Gingrich said he expected a full Republican field of 12 to 15 candidates, and he predicted 'you will not know who the (GOP) nominee is until very late in the spring of 2012.' Gingrich added that President Obama remains personally popular and that he would not be easy to defeat. 'This president has enormous capacity' to recover politically, said Gingrich. He cautioned that Obama 'is not beaten.'

Another quote on 2012

From a Texas NBC report:

'I think Callista and I will make that decision in February or early March,' he said. 'We run four small businesses, and we're organizing them right now so that we'd be able to run. I must say that the clear, vivid choice between where Obama would take us and what most Americans want to go makes it very appealing.'

Repealing Obamacare to be biggest "advocacy effort" of American Solutions

RIn an e-mail, titled simply "Repeal it," Newt slams Obamacare -- listing, among other things, the cost to taxpayers and small businesses -- and then lays out a course of action.

Put simply, as long as ObamaCare is the law of the land, America will not be providing an environment that allows businesses to grow, which means accepting stagnant growth and high unemployment as the new normal.

We shouldn't have to accept that. For that reason, we must begin the process of repealing this destructive law and replacing it with common sense health reforms.

Repeal and replace will not happen overnight and it will not happen after a week's worth of debate in Congress. Repeal will require a grassroots movement that puts strong and sustained pressure on Washington.

The time to start that movement is today.

Over the next few weeks we will be very active in starting the movement to repeal and replace ObamaCare.

We intend for this advocacy effort to be our biggest to date.

Thanks for everything you did to elect job creators last week, and thank you for all that you will do to keep the pressure on the new representatives in Congress to do the right thing.

"Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" was a game-changer and got 1.5 million signatures, so the group has a high standard to pass.

And in recent interviews, Gingrich has put the desired number of signatures at 50 million -- focusing on "every state where a Democratic senator is going to be up for re-election in 2012 -- drive them to vote yes." This petition drive would come after the House passes a repeal bill rather easily.

Gingrich continued, "Get the bill out of the Senate and then have a nationwide petition drive to the president, and seek to gather 50 million signatures so the president has overwhelming public pressure to sign the repeal of Obamacare."

CBS News breaks down 2012 GOP contenders

Of Gingrich, they write:

He'll be visiting three Iowa cities next week on a book tour and has for months been in and out of the state more often than a freight train of cattle. State Republican officials say Gingrich is very popular with the party's base of social and Christian conservatives, but also claims considerable support from the business community as well. At some past events, Gingrich has been urged to run for the top job by people who see him as the best man to take on Mr. Obama in a debate. Whatever the Washington political elite may say about Gingrich, he is popular in Iowa and party pros in the Hawkeye state now fully expect him to run. 'He's taking all the right steps in preparation of setting up a statewide organization,' one official said of Gingrich.

Newt discusses 2012; says he's "probably" in fourth place

Appearing on ABC's "The View," Newt was asked about 2012 and whether he planned to run. Per usual, he did not answer the question directly but did say that he would place himself in fourth at this very early point.

And a quick glance at most national polls show just that: that, in some order, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney garner more support.

However, Romney's support will likely erode as his Republican opponents make hay of the fact that Romney's signature achievement as governor of Massachusetts -- known as Romneycare -- resembles very much Obamacare. Romney will try to distance himself from the act, but when running in 2008, favorably cited the piece of legislation as a reason people should vote for him.

While not mentioniong Romney's name, Gingrich attacked MassCare earlier this year. As the American Spectator wrote:

'It's the forerunner of Obamacare,' Gingrich said when asked about the Massachusetts plan. 'It is a general model in a general direction and it's the general direction that's wrong. And that's why I'm suggesting you need to be thinking about fundamental change, not just marginal reforms.'

Writing about Gingrich's rankings of the contenders at this point, ABC's senior political reporter Michael Falcone writes, "Lowering expectations is an age-old political tactic and Gingrich is an adept practitioner." He then adds:

But with his busy travel schedule, his 2010 campaign endorsements, fundraising for his 527 group and the array of projects he is spearheading through his organization, American Solutions, Gingrich has been carefully laying the groundwork for a presidential bid....Before the month is over that tour will take him to several key battleground states, including Florida, Ohio and Virginia as well as Iowa, a key early caucus state where Gingrich is making three separate stops.

Newt is gaining influence within the Tea Party

Given the Tea Party's dramatic influence on the upcoming midterm elections -- whether one looks at the moderate Republicans they have already played a part in defeating or the Democrats they will knock out on November 2 -- many have begun to speculate on the movement's role in the 2012 Presidential race.

The first part of that race, of course, is deciding who the GOP will nominate to take on President Obama. The general consensus has formed, within many conservative circles as well as liberal, that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be the movement's favorite.

However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that, in the words of Pater Wallsten, "One third of Republicans support the tea party so strongly that they describe themselves as part of the movement more than they identify as Republicans. Among this group, Mr. Gingrich is considered the GOP's "most important leader."

Palin, however, does win among the Republicans who while supportive of the Tea Party movement "identifies more as Republicans."

The article also discusses the two different manners in which Gingrich and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have prepared for possible White House bids.

The reason they have followed different paths is simple: they simply view the movement differently. Whereas Romney, according to his advisers, "is betting that the tea-party groundswell, while energizing fiscal conservatives, doesn't mark a fundamental shift in the preferences of GOP voters." Basically, the movement will wither and not have an influence for much longer.

Gingrich's view as described by Wallsten:

[Gingrich] views the tea-party revolt as the dawn of an enduring movement, and he has spent more time courting tea-party activists than forging ties to Republican party leaders. Mr. Gingrich has recast his American Solutions group, launched in 2007 to press for expanded oil drilling and other policy initiatives, into a tea-party clearinghouse of sorts -- creating a curriculum to teach activists, small business owners and first-time candidates how to run campaigns. He is keeping in touch with this potential army of volunteers.

So when it comes to building a base of support for a 2012 run, Governor Romney has courted a lot of party leaders. And Newt "is traveling the country to build alliances with local tea-party activists in key presidential primary and caucus states....assign[ing] a full-time staffer at American Solutions to recruit and work with local activists across the country. Many of those now in his database live in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- key early-voting states in the presidential primaries, where Mr. Gingrich has devoted time to meeting them in small groups."

Wallsten then gives the story of one such meeting:

Elisabet Wilson, a tea-party activist who lives near Greenville, S.C., said she received a call from a Gingrich aide last spring seeking her attendance at a May roundtable with the former speaker at a local hotel. When she arrived, she found a group of nearly 30 fellow activists.

"He went around the room and asked each of us, why did you get involved?" Ms. Wilson said.

Ms. Wilson later agreed to serve as a state coordinator for American Solutions.

Wallsten continues, "Mr. Gingrich said American Solutions was intended to boost the conservative movement whether or not he runs."

"It's certainly probably broadly helpful (to a presidential campaign), but it's not designed for that,' Gingrich said." "We're happy to share our ideas and our information with everybody, with all the different candidates."

Some quick hits

From The Statesman:

Speaking at a forum put on by the Austin Tea Party Patriots, Gingrich was asked about his plans, as the crowd chanted, 'Newt. Newt.' Gingrich ignored the question and redirected his answer to talk about the competence of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Rep. John Boehner, the House minority leader.

...

Gingrich challenged the conservative crowd to continue advocating for small government and free market values. 'You are serving your country as a citizen when you get involved,' he told the often cheering and applauding group, which was estimated by organizers to be about 450 people strong.

...

Gingrich said he signed [the Contract from America] 'as a tea partier.'

After the event, [Tea Party Patriots organizer Greg Holloway] said: 'The people seemed energized, interested.'

From Politico:

Newt's 527, American Solutions, raised 2.7 million dollars -- "almost as much as the groups headed by his prospective rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, brought in combined. [Though, as the website points out, Newt's group has fewer restrictions on raising money.]

Gingrich, the former House speaker, has used his committee, American Solutions for Winning the Future, to pay political staff and consultants, build its email list, fundraise and travel the country. Those activities are considered necessary to lay the foundation for a presidential bid, and are similar to how Minnesota Gov. Pawlenty, and former Govs. Romney of Massachusetts, Palin of Alaska and Huckabee of Arkansas have used their committees.

...

“I see a massive acceleration on the fundraising side,” [Chief Operating Officer Dan Varroney] said, rejecting the premise that American Solutions is geared towards positioning Gingrich for a 2012 presidential run. “Not at all,” he said. “Our focus is clear cut: to save America.”

From the Independent Voter Network:

Reflecting on the 1942 Democratically-controlled Congress that created what he termed 'an anti-appropriations committee, Gingrich claimed that 'a substantial number of New Deal agencies were abolished by the actions of that committee.'

...

“You can’t govern by saying no,” [Gingrich] said. “Offer a dramatically better set of solutions principled based on conservatism...but solutions...not just ideologies. And all of a sudden people look up and you have an argument.”

"The Gingrich Surge"

So says Matthew Continetti of The Weekly Standard, who wrote a cover story about Newt Gingrich in March 2007.

He notes that from March 21 to April 11, Gingrich gained six points in the CNN Republican primary polling data. "What's fascinating, though, is Newt Gingrich's surge into the top tier of presidential prospects," writes Continetti. "He's gained six points in a month, and is only one point behind Palin. His favorable number is about the same as Palin's, but his unfavorable number is significantly less....As for Gingrich, the poll definitely suggests a presidential bid could gain some traction."

Another poll also shows good news for Newt -- and the other Republican frontrunners. Public Policy Polling (PPP) pitted President Obama against Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin. Huckabee, by 47-45%, has the best numbers currently. Gingrich is tied with the President, 45-45%, while Romney is up 45-44%. Sarah Palin is down just two points, 47-45%.

That suggests two things: 1) Gingrich, due to a great rehabilitation on his part, is not nearly the divisive figure some still try to paint him as; and 2) Obama is in great trouble.